Market - Fed - Reading - Crossword Puzzle -- Rambling -- April 13, 2023

Locator: 44383B.

BUD is up today in early morning trading. 

Poolside, 9:58 a.m. -- enjoying the sun. Photo from the other evening. His mate has laid her eggs. They now share duties but it's she that is on the nest almost 24/7. He's taking a  break. Later, he was joined by another male. This one "owns" this pool. The other was visiting.

TThe Fed considers a pause.

The market seems not to care. JPow writes that the "banking crisis" will push the US into recession later this year. Let's look at context. Link here.

US market open: traders agree -- the Fed will pause.

Not on my bingo card today, not even close:

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Summer Reading Program To Commence Shortly 

My 2022 - 2023 winter reading program.

Summer reading program: May 1, 2023 - September 30, 2023.

Will include the 50th anniversary edition:

Success! It took me three days, but finally completed. In ink.

Let's Do The Math -- Aprill 13, 2023

Locator: 44382B.

I found this in an e-mail I trashed the other day.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tortoiseinvest/2016/05/13/transporting-oil-why-pipelines-still-rule/?sh=5ec219c512dc

COP Flips The Script On US Shale -- April 13, 2023

Locator: 44381B.

COP: flips the script on US shale.  

It begins: 

[COP] secured perhaps the US oil deal of the decade by picking up industry pioneer Concho Resources Inc. for $13 billion in the depths of the pandemic. Now, three years later, others are increasingly following suit.

Ovintiv Inc. agreed to spend $4.3 billion on private-equity owned assets earlier this month, while it was reported last week that Exxon Mobil Corp. is eyeing Pioneer Natural Resources Co., one of the Permian Basin’s largest independent producers. More deals are likely.

In this latest uptick in shale M&A, the big are getting bigger and the small get bought. That’s yet another nail in the coffin for the debt-fueled, buccaneering archetype that once prevailed in the shale world. Back in those days, the industry splurged on production growth and managed to upset everyone from OPEC to its own shareholders.

And then finishes:

ConocoPhillips exemplified the new style of US oil company when it unveiled its strategic plan to investors in New York on Wednesday. It will increase production in the Lower 48 (i.e., the contiguous US) by about 7% annually over the next 10 years, a far cry from Concho’s growth heyday of almost 30%.

[COP] will reinvest just half of his company’s cash from operations in new production, leaving the rest for buybacks and dividends, down from more than 100% in 2012 through 2016. 

It’s all rather sensible, if a bit boring, especially coming just days after oil prices rallied following OPEC+’s surprise production cut.  

To spice things up, Lance told Bloomberg Television that deal flow, particularly in the Permian, is likely to accelerate over the coming months. But the reasons for doing so are also fairly humdrum. Buyers are looking to capture “synergies” and replenish top-tier well locations, he said. Meanwhile, smaller, faster-growing companies are happy to cash out through sales.

I'm lovin' in.

Re-posting, link here.

ConocoPhillips unveiled a 10-year plan Wednesday that envisions more than $115B of free cash flow available for distributions and capital spending averaging ~$10B annually, resulting in a 4%-5% production compound annual growth rate at an average reinvestment rate of ~50%.

The plan foresees durable cash flow growth with projected cash from operations and FCF compounded annual growth rate of ~6% and 11%, respectively, and return on capital employed increasing at least one percentage point annually.

Conoco (COP) said it will seek a resource base of 20B boe at less than $40/bbl WTI, representing a resource life of more than 30 years at current production levels.

The company also pledged to speed up its greenhouse gas intensity reduction target through 2030 by 10% to a range of 50%-60% using a 2016 baseline.

ConocoPhillips (COP) is expected to provide shareholders with almost 5% in annualized dividends and share buybacks, generating strong shareholder returns.

From the balcony, today:

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- Thursday, April 13, 2023

Locator: 44380B.

The Fed considers a pause.

The market seems not to care. JPow writes that the "banking crisis" will push the US into recession later this year. Let's look at context. Link here.

US market open: traders agree -- the Fed will pause.

China crude oil imports: link here.

COP: flips the script on US shale.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $83.00

Natural gas: $2.123.

Friday, April 14, 2023: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 283 for the year
38560, conf, Hess, GO-HAUG-156-98-3031H-5,
38559, conf, Hess, GO-HAUG-156-98-1918H-5,

Thursday, April 13, 2023: 26 for the month; 26 for the quarter, 281 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: with methane emissions, solutions can be as tricky to pin down as the problem itself.

By now, just about everyone is aware of and has been impacted by efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions — and methane especially — as a way of meeting global climate goals, but that doesn’t mean everyone is on the same page. The energy industry is a leading source of methane emissions in the U.S., but with nearly 1 million active wells across the country and not much common ground on the actual scope of methane emissions and how best to reduce them, finding a path forward without overburdening the sector and its customers is more than a little tricky.

Discussions around the ongoing energy transition often focus on the need to control and then reduce the volume of GHGs emitted into the atmosphere. And while carbon dioxide (CO₂), the most prevalent GHG, often gets the most attention, methane is especially problematic. It is the primary constituent in pipeline natural gas and also a particularly potent GHG, with a Global Warming Potential (GWP) that is 25-36 times that of CO₂ if normalized to a 100-year timeline. But methane emissions are neutralized in the atmosphere at a much quicker pace, meaning that their initial GWP is much higher, more like 86 times that of CO₂ if normalized to a 20-year timeline. That means that making even modest reductions in unburned methane emissions is an important step in plans to blunt the long-term effects of man-made climate change.

Hess With Five New Permits; CLR With Three DUCs Reported Completed -- April 12, 2023

Locator: 44379B.

Active rigs: 44.

WTI: $83.06.

Natural gas: $2.093.

Five new permits, #39815 - #39189, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Ross (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for three RS-Flickertail wells and two RS-Nelson Farms wells, SWSW 8-156-91; 
• to be sited, 335 FSL and between 360 FWL and 492 FWL.

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed (of interest, the "FIU" has been dropped):

• 38170, no IP test, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 7-28H, the Long Creek Unit is tracked here;
  
• 38172, no IP test, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 9-28H, the Long Creek Unit is tracked here;
• 38173, no IP test, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 10-28H1, the Long Creek Unit is tracked here;
  

Previously, names were: 

• 38170, conf-->drl, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 7-28H, no production data,
• 38172, conf-->drl, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 9-28H, no production data,
• 38173, conf-->drl, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 10-28H1, no production data,