US LNG Producers Poised To Surge -- April 7, 2023

Locator: 44326B. 

Link here.

From February 16, 2023. 

For the archives.

After a dearth of plant approvals last decade, developers have secured dozens of long-term contracts to finance new multibillion-dollar LNG plants. The pace of approvals has accelerated as Europe has shifted away from Russian gas since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

About a dozen developers hope to make final investment decisions (FID) this year. Many of these projects have been delayed several times, but analysts said at least three have secured enough customers to move ahead soon.

The United States was long an importer of LNG, but natural gas discoveries and production from the shale revolution flipped the country into an LNG exporter in 2016. U.S. LNG exports hit 10.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022, making the country the second biggest LNG exporter behind Australia.

Projects best positioned to move ahead include Sempra Energy's Port Arthur plant in Texas, Energy Transfer LP's Lake Charles in Louisiana and NextDecade Corp's Rio Grande in Texas.

They have all or most of the long-term LNG sales agreements needed to convince bank's that the projects are ready for debt financing, say analysts.

Sempra said in January it has sold all the capacity needed to advance the first phase of Port Arthur. Buyers include Poland's Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen SA, U.S. oil producer ConocoPhillips and Germany's RWE AG.

NextDecade has signed deals for about 64% of the first phase of Rio Grande and may soon push it to about 87%, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley, a bank. Rio Grande's customers include Exxon Mobil Corp, Shell PLC, Portugal's Galp Energia and Japan's Itochu Corp.

NextDecade could secure a financial go-ahead in the second half of this year, Morgan Stanley said. NextDecade has said that it was targeting a first-quarter FID for the project's first phase.

Energy Transfer signaled on Wednesday it might miss its first-quarter target for a FID due to extreme competition for LNG buyers. It has deals to sell LNG to several firms, including Shell, China's ENN Group and Swiss commodity trader Gunvor.

It takes roughly four years to build these giant plants, so their LNG is not likely to reach markets before 2027. But their production volumes will allow the United States to remain ahead of output from Australia and Qatar.

China Rapidly Converting From Gasoline/Diesel-Sourced ICE Vehicles To Coal-Sourced EVs -- April 7, 2023

Locator: 44325B.

Link here.

An op-ed disguised as a news story. 

For the archives.

Laughable. 

The statistics may be correct, but that's about all that's correct.

But, yes, folks will eagerly buy EVs, if:

• that's all that are available;
• mandated by the government;
• they come with huge tax breaks;
• one lives in a highly controlled political environment; and,
• they are really, really inexpensive (euphemism: for "cheap," small, limited range, unsafe, no bells and whistles).

China is rapidly converting from gasoline/diesel-sourced ICE vehicles to coal-sourced EVs.

PGA -- Masters Leaderboard -- April 7, 2023

Locator: 44324B.   

Link here.

The 18 LIV Golf members at the Masters are and how they finished:

• Phil Mickelson -- T2; shot a 65 on the final round;
  
• Charl Schwartzel -- T50
  
• Bubba Watson -- CUT
  
• Sergio Garcia -- CUT
  
• Patrick Reed -- T4
  
• Dustin Johnson -- T48
  
• Brooks Koepka -- T2 -- led the whole way and a wide margin through the third round; imploded on the fourth day; not used to playing full four rounds
  
• Bryson DeChambeau -- CUT
  
• Cameron Smith -- T34
  
• Mito Pereira -- T43
  
• Joaquin Niemann -- T16
  
• Abraham Ancer -- T39

Other notes:

• Tiger Woods: withdrew before the third round completed

Can't Get Folks Laid Off Fast Enough Seems To Be The New Concern -- April 7, 2023

Locator: 44324B.  

The "jobs report." 

By the way, the "jobs report" was "right on the money." See end of this post, scroll to the bottom.

Regardless of headlines, it was an incredibly bullish report. 

From The WSJ:  

The US added 236,000 jobs in March. See what Morningstar thinks about this (scroll to end of blog below).

Considering that the last few elections have been running on putting Americans back to work, it appears it's now time for that policy to change. The Fed and JPow can't raise rates fast enough to get more folks laid off. 

As folks know, U-1 interests me, not U-3. Also, we need to take a look at labor force participation.

And, of course, this, but still need to see more folks laid off before Wall Street feels more comfortable.

***************************************
Forecast And Results
A "Goldilocks Number"

Goldilocks: right on the number, 236,00 vs 238,000 forecast. The market "baked in" 238,000 and any number below that that was bullish. In addition, U-3 unemployment dropping from 3.6 to 3.5 gives bragging rights to President Biden.

And then get this: average hourly earnings incrased 4.2% on a 12-month basis, the lowest level since June, 2021.

Link here.

Forecast:

• to add 238,000 jobs (March, 2023). Actual: 236,000 jobs.
  
• unemployment rate to stay at 3.6%
• a 200,000+ increase in March would still be "quite strong" [Actual: the US added 236,000 jobs in March.]
• the US added an average of 173,000 new jobs a month in the year before the onset of the pandemic in 2020

Note: according to Morningstar --

A big change in how jobless claims are calculated, which shows more layoffs this year than previously reported, won't affect the monthly employment numbers. They are compiled differently and use a separate seasonal-adjustment process that has already been put into effect.

Previously, actual:

• February: 311,000
• January: 504,000

Blogging Plans For The Day -- April 7, 2023

Locator: 44323B.  

I'll be tied up with family commitments today but I'm looking forward to a great day of blogging.

In the queue, a Telegraph op-ed on China's "green leap" forward. LOL. But great for the archives. Bottom line: China is moving quickly from gasoline/diesel-sourced ICEs to coal-sourced EVs. The op-ed is laughable, but the data, without analysis, is interesting, to the extent that it's accurate.

We'll also take a look at one of my favorite companies, SRE. I don't accumulate any more shares in this company. It was the second company in which I ever invested, back in 1984 or thereabouts and with re-invested dividends for twenty-plus years, I have too much to justify buying more.We'll take a look at a recent analysis of SRE with regard to investing.

SRE, then leads us to LNG exports. I'll be posting an old story but something that needs repeating.

The "jobs report,"  of course, will be noted. Regardless of headlines, it was an incredibly bullish report. Considering that the last few elections have been running on putting Americans back to work, it appears it's now time for that policy to change. The Fed and JPow can't raise rates fast enough to get more folks laid off. As folks know, U-1 interests me, not U-3. Also, we need to take a look at labor force participation.

By the way, same with the weekly EIA petroleum report: incredibly bullish.

Toyota pivots with regard to EV policy / strategy. 

Tesla: it was announced that Tesla has cut prices for the fifth time in as little as five months. Meanwhile, of course, Ford is raising prices -- what? Three times in the last three months? We'll talk about Tesla later.

So, lots to post, lots to blog. Not much about the Bakken but I'll find something. I'm trying to figure out why Murex named these wells the way they did:

• 38980, 908, Murex, TL-Kyle Donovan 15-22H MB,
• 38982, 573, Murex, TL-Pattie Ann 100-3H MB,
• 38983, 691, Murex, TL-Kory Dale 100-3H MB,
• 38984, 1,134, Murex, TL-Andrea Faye 15-22H MB,

So, lots to do. 

But coffee, family commitments, an errand or two, and then maybe some blogging. 

Oh, yes, and some comments on the PGA are in order. I won't be watching but I'll follow the leaderboard -- plenty to say. The first round was so incredibly boring, social media had to work really, really hard to find some controversy to spike interest.

Oh, yeah, after that TG shot and killed six (?) folks in a Christian school in Nashville last month, it's nice to see that the official policy in the White House on TG-bullying is for TG's to fight back. Apparently they're taking that to heart in the Tennessee.

Let's see. That reminds me of something else. Oh, yes. I continue to read this book -- absolutely fascinating. Quick: what percent of people living in America were African-American / "black" immediately following the US Civil War? Quick, immediately upon given the right to vote, what percent of African-American / "black" population voted? What percent voted in 1920?

Pence? From wiki:

In his childhood and early adulthood, Pence was a Roman Catholic and a Democrat, as was the rest of his family. He volunteered for the Bartholomew County Democratic Party in 1976 and voted for Jimmy Carter in the 1980 presidential election, and has said he was originally inspired to get involved in politics by people such as John F. Kennedy and Martin Luther King Jr. While in college, Pence left the Catholic Church and became an evangelical, born-again Christian, to the disappointment of his mother. His political views also started shifting to the right during this time in his life, something which Pence attributes to the "common-sense conservatism of Ronald Reagan" with which he began to identify.

Pence was born and grew up about three hours northeast of Evansville, Indiana (by car).

Just the facts, link here.

N.B. Clarence: if "they" can take down a former President, "they" can take down anybody." I probably won't post / blog any more about this story today, but we'll watch where it goes.

Okay, time to move on.