Thursday, March 2, 2023

The National Nightmare Is Over -- March 2, 2023

White eggs, one dozen, at Walmart: $2.72.

Since the current administration is being blamed for 9% inflation, will the current administration now get credit for this huge drop in the price of eggs?  

Along that same line:

  • Target, Lays, salt and vinegar chips, 7.75 oz: $4.29
  • Walmart, store-brand, salt and vinegar chips, 8.0 oz; $1.98 (less than half price for slightly more)

A Little Insight Into Berkshire Hathaway's Cash Horde -- March 2, 2023

For 4Q22 and full year guidance for 2023 for Berkshire Hathaway, this is where that is being tracked. 

One of the criticisms has been that Buffett and Munger are building a cash horde but not putting that cash to work, as they say.

This article provides a bit of insight.

This explains a lot:

Berkshire Hathaway — and every other major name in finance — is somewhat limited in what it can do. By law, major financial institutions and billionaire investors can’t buy more than 5% of a company without submitting a 13-D filing as a beneficial owner to the Securities and Exchange Commission and all of the headaches that come with it.

This essentially shuts Buffett out of the world of microcap investing — unless Berkshire Hathaway decides to jump through those regulatory hoops. And even if the company chose to do so, and uncovered a 10 times opportunity, the upside would be barely noticeable to Berkshire Hathaway. If a $2 million stake turned into $20 million, that wouldn’t move the needle for a company that collects hundreds of millions of dollars in dividends each year from its stake in Coca-Cola alone.

In addition, Buffett does not do hostile takeovers. That's also huge. 

Now, think about that. If you are a 30-year-old investor, how should this affect your investing strategy?

Gasoline Demand Re-Visited -- March 2, 2023

If you are going to be an analyst, at least get the facts straight.

The analyst may be referring to the "average" demand over some time period, but we clearly peaked higher than 9. 3 million bpd. See below.

From the blog before the pandemic over the July 4th weekend:

From the blog yesterday: ignore the four-week average (the "lines"); instead look at the demand for week ending 2/24/23: 9.1 million bpd. That's huge:

  • there's not a lot of difference between 9.8 (peak) and 9.1 milllion bpd (most recent);
  • the peak was over a July 4th weekend before the pandemic;
  • yesterday's 9.1 was in February, perhaps the month with the least automobile driving in the;
  • no holiday driving during that week;
  • fifty percent of office workers have still not returned to the office;
  • upwards of 75% of office workers are not at the office full time (and many of them will probably never return full time);
  • better mileage overall;
  • greater EV penetration;
  • my hunch: we get very, very close to 10 million bpd this year; and, if we don't hit 10 million bpd this summer, we'll see that milestone in 2024.

Three Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- March 2, 2023

Tesla lithium refinery: Corpus Christi.

In September 2022, we learned that Tesla has a plan to build a lithium refining facility on the Gulf Coast of Texas.
At the time, we knew very little about the project other than Tesla was planning on moving fast with hope to start building in Q4 2022.
A few months later, Tesla officially submitted the proposal for a project in Robstown, Texas, 25 minutes outside of Corpus Christi, with the purpose of “developing a battery-grade lithium hydroxide refining facility, the first of its kind in North America, as well as facilities to support other types of battery materials processing, refining, and manufacturing and ancillary manufacturing operations in support of Tesla’s sustainable product line.”
Tesla also confirmed that it planned to invest $365 million in the lithium plant, which would employ about 165 people full-time plus another 250 construction jobs for about two years.

China and oil, link here:

Each vessel can transport a whopping 2 million barrels of crude.
The people said that the loading of the tankers is expected to occur across US Gulf Coast terminals.
"Chinese buying activity of US barrels seems to be the hottest activity right now," Viktor Katona, a lead crude analyst at Kpler.
He said Chinese firms are taking advantage of a "remarkable, profitable arbitrage" for US crude that has been suppressed because of President Biden's massive releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (remember when China was buying SPR releases last year?). 

*****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 45.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $77.97.

Natural gas: $2.760.

Friday, March 3, 2023: 14 for the month; 176 for the quarter, 176 for the year
38959, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 1603-3BH, 
38957, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 1622-1BH, 
38615, conf, Hunt, Halliday 146-93-25-36H 3,
38342, conf, Enerplus, Grip 149-92-31C-30H,

Thursday, March 2, 2023: 10 for the month; 172 for the quarter, 172 for the year
39083, conf, CLR, Woodrow 2-32H,
38747, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-13H,
38346, conf, Enerplus, Court 149-92-31D-30H,

RBN Energy: Uinta Basin's gas-egress dilemma clouds forecast, part 2. Archived.

Production of waxy crude in the Uinta Basin is up by more than half since mid-2021 and E&Ps there would like to produce more — the dense, slippery hydrocarbon is in high demand, not just by refineries in nearby Salt Lake City but also by at least a few of their Gulf Coast counterparts. Producers seem to have a handle on transporting increasing volumes of the stuff to market by truck and rail. The problem is, waxy crude emerges from Uinta wells with associated gas that needs to be piped away, the gas pipelines out of the play are nearing capacity, and addressing the takeaway constraints is a very complicated matter. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the northeastern Utah play’s gas-takeaway concerns and the prospects for continued growth in waxy crude production.

Half-Staffed Today -- March 2, 2023

Due to Texas Independence Day, today, the office will be half-staffed.