If you are going to be an analyst, at least get the facts straight.
The analyst may be referring to the "average" demand over some time period, but we clearly peaked higher than 9. 3 million bpd. See below.
From the blog before the pandemic over the July 4th weekend:
From the blog yesterday: ignore the four-week average (the "lines"); instead look at the demand for week ending 2/24/23: 9.1 million bpd. That's huge:
- there's not a lot of difference between 9.8 (peak) and 9.1 milllion bpd (most recent);
- the peak was over a July 4th weekend before the pandemic;
- yesterday's 9.1 was in February, perhaps the month with the least automobile driving in the;
- no holiday driving during that week;
- fifty percent of office workers have still not returned to the office;
- upwards of 75% of office workers are not at the office full time (and many of them will probably never return full time);
- better mileage overall;
- greater EV penetration;
- my hunch: we get very, very close to 10 million bpd this year; and, if we don't hit 10 million bpd this summer, we'll see that milestone in 2024.
No comments:
Post a Comment