In the middle of the night. Maybe we'll finally find what we're looking for ... in the middle of the night. Wow, it never quits. "The Expectations Index is below 80 which often signals a recession within the next year."
"Within the next year." Say what. They started talking about the coming recession back in early 2022.
And, maybe even before that.
From today's social media:
This is really, really cool.
From January 30, 2023, Michael Fitzsimmons. He inadvertently waded into the decades-old argument -- dividends vs buybacks vs capital gains ... Warren Buffett vs the "typical" mom-and-pop retail investor:
So, for all those folks complaining about CVX's new dividend -- oh, give me a break. CVX threaded the needle about as well as they could:
Nothing required CVX to actually buyback anything.... $75 billion to be used at their discretion.
It really gets back to a short-term horizon vs a long-term horizon.
I'm lovin' it.
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And So Is The US Market
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Area Under The Curve
Update
January 31, 2023: one "word" -- AMEX.
Original Post
Re-posting from November 20, 2022:
By the way, this is where folks are really hurt by having a poor general education, particularly in math. Folks will look (briefly) at the graph below and note only the "curve" or the solid dark line. Much more important is the "calculus" -- it's the "area under the curve" that should catch your attention.
The "area under the curve." Calculus. Start here.
My reply:
Get a grip. For an investor, it's an open-book test: Mastercard, Visa, Discover, and AMEX. Not only lots of credit card activity but lots of late payments and interest rates rising. They're gonna make out like bandits.
And, oh, by the way, savings rates are at 10-year lows, not all time lows. Went much lower in the mid 2000s.
The area under the curve:
My favorite chart which correlates exactly with the chart above.
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SNAP beats estimates. Fourteen cents vs eleven cents estimate.
Starbucks: reports later this week. Least expensive coffee at Starbucks? $2.85 (or thereabouts -- I was just there two days ago). At home, K-Cup, at Amazon, as low as 27 cents. Starbucks -- 10x K-Cup.
McDonald's: link here. Reminder: a $10 McDonald's meal costs about $2.50 when homemade. A pancake breakfast at home has even bigger savings.
GM: before market open; $1.74 vs $1.68; beats, shares up. $1.39. Shares surge on news. Link here. Link here.
Earlier this morning:
12:14 p.m. CST: Pemex issues bond (singular) worth at least $1.5 billion to refinance debt -- sources.
a ten-year bond
Still looks technically bankrupt to me.