Monday, January 30, 2023

Some Recession -- January 30, 2023

JetBlue pilots: approve contract extension that comes with 21% in raises.

Boeing: will add a new 737 Max production line to meet strong demand.

Costco: preparing to raise its membership prices.

Ports: a lagging indicator. 

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Hurricanes "Unprecedentedly Weak" In 2022 -- Bjorn Lomborg

For the archives, but even more so, for investors. This is great news for investors. Think Warren Buffett and all those Geico-insured cars that weren't "totaled" by hurricane flooding. 

And, oh by the way, insurers raised their rates after the hurricanes the previous season.

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It's All About Margins -- Re-Posting -- January 30, 2023

Locator: 33021.

Updates

Later, 1:25 p.m. CT: It's all about margins. 


Original Post

Price wars begin (wow, that was fast): https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1620057370603945986.

This speaks volumes about the future of EVs:

From The WSJ today:

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Agree 1000%! This Is Why I Haven't Wasted Time Posting The Most Recent BP Long-Term Projections -- January 30, 2023

Link here.

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Updating This Well -- 50x Jump In Production -- Bakken 101 -- Bakken 5.0 -- December 23, 2022

This regards this well:

  • 18732, 558, CLR, Stortroen 1-13T, Dimmick Lake, t7/10; cum 231K 10/ 22, full production profile; 27834 / 581 = 50x; cum 256K 11/22;

A reader wrote: 

I saw your post from yesterday on the halo effect of the Hess BB-Budahn wells.  I know you have posted this phenomenon a lot on your blog site, but you have to check out the Stortroen 1-13T (#18732), located in 151-97-13.  They recently drilled additional wells in that area, and this particular well was not the best through its life.  It has been producing since June of 2010, and the highest production ever was around 10,000 a month with most production being around 800 a month.  After the other wells were drilled, this well went to 21k in September, 27k in October, and 24k in November 2022.

Not sure if this was a refrac or not, but pretty impressive regardless.

My reply: 
Yes, it was a re-frac, 5/17/22.

I consider “re-francs” in the broad category of halo effect for tagging but technically not what I originally intended. But it does not matter. The mineral owner is simply happy with a bigger check … regardless of reason.

The re-frac was a moderate re-frac, around 9 million gallons of water with water being 88% of total mass of the frac.

Updated production: 

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20223024901248772989153174527799
BAKKEN10-2022312783427992397605484654035409
BAKKEN9-20223021389210664740240334386361309
BAKKEN8-20221151394737186701203079573944
BAKKEN7-2022522321742344520404
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202233134147460
BAKKEN3-202231581708356165112500
BAKKEN2-202228485471275145210880
BAKKEN1-202231537486366173613330
BAKKEN12-202131562723337176813650
BAKKEN11-202130558482337160712170
BAKKEN10-20213159046838711867830
BAKKEN9-2021305294673101272685210
BAKKEN8-2021315756973571270597270
BAKKEN7-2021315804534281255606259
BAKKEN6-2021305746913621087360342
BAKKEN5-2021315274783771416921105
BAKKEN4-2021306428544322009159821
BAKKEN3-20213157453056216381163112
BAKKEN2-2021255934913301628128256
BAKKEN1-20213155712072721606122136
BAKKEN12-2020316190313176913780
BAKKEN11-202030619468298175913690
BAKKEN10-202031621714368178113840
BAKKEN9-202030672713385185114650
BAKKEN8-2020317326684201840144810
BAKKEN7-2020318921410302184914550
BAKKEN6-20201470101300
BAKKEN5-202016351018247428238
BAKKEN4-202029609490338174313850
BAKKEN3-202031632700288177113680
BAKKEN2-202029584490303169513126
BAKKEN1-2020316737463661830139136
BAKKEN12-201931701695407185114490
BAKKEN11-20193052048355715521038130
BAKKEN10-201931635694324180514020
BAKKEN9-201930631458360183614460
BAKKEN8-2019316397023331923148733
BAKKEN7-2019316507043681907148123
BAKKEN6-2019306446893951695130114
BAKKEN5-2019305346813271393609433
BAKKEN4-2019306264733151418353675
BAKKEN3-2019316187133301504825276
BAKKEN2-201928651711352170313327
BAKKEN1-2019316226993081751130741
BAKKEN12-201831669709358167312980
BAKKEN11-20183064847835017131081242
BAKKEN10-2018317336964381494648443
BAKKEN9-2018256146976681401354730
BAKKEN8-20183169769640726181315900
BAKKEN7-201819562466377157813580
BAKKEN6-201830707690447222518350
BAKKEN5-201831841694435185818580
BAKKEN4-2018286046983279969960
BAKKEN3-201831392468878688680
BAKKEN2-201825582486355143614360
BAKKEN1-201831694700378154615460
BAKKEN12-201731722710362160016000
BAKKEN11-201730710715364148514850
BAKKEN10-201731689727505172217220
BAKKEN9-201730663469329142214220
BAKKEN8-201731697923408180118010
BAKKEN7-201731721680451196519650
BAKKEN6-20172977367758418611731130
BAKKEN5-2017316719203101766173630
BAKKEN4-2017307186844631901187526
BAKKEN3-201731781961380176517650
BAKKEN2-201728677462375169316930
BAKKEN1-201731788711418203020300
BAKKEN12-201631844934528200420040
BAKKEN11-201630998891513231323130
BAKKEN10-201617440945217106299270
BAKKEN9-201629704462472185818580
BAKKEN8-201631820697450179117910
BAKKEN7-201631856913498212521250
BAKKEN6-201630872683595208620860
BAKKEN5-201631663923310169516950
BAKKEN4-201628806456465191719170
BAKKEN3-201631875905475194519450
BAKKEN2-201629833928425184118410
BAKKEN1-201631895903453192019200
BAKKEN12-201531891925466197819780
BAKKEN11-201530866914440195119510
BAKKEN10-201531867902457202920290
BAKKEN9-201530865895468205920590
BAKKEN8-201531903882503214821480
BAKKEN7-201531881918495209720970
BAKKEN6-201528897684507216921690
BAKKEN5-2015319379145232258223424
BAKKEN4-20153086690951721131969144
BAKKEN3-20153110331170540206320630
BAKKEN2-2015288761014467184018400
BAKKEN1-2015311057926615236023600
BAKKEN12-2014319601068500201320130
BAKKEN11-20143098290956223132193120
BAKKEN10-20143111321261685260526050
BAKKEN9-2014301243868655237223720
BAKKEN8-201411438610137104110410
BAKKEN7-20143110241118580252025200
BAKKEN6-201430101289656724852085400
BAKKEN5-20143110711337570243124310
BAKKEN4-201430104871857722751985290
BAKKEN3-20143110991133602224822480
BAKKEN2-2014281069936578231223120
BAKKEN1-20143010951202613222922290
BAKKEN12-20133111191234617244924490
BAKKEN11-20133011129316502754271440
BAKKEN10-201331116911866482953294310
BAKKEN9-20133011361191648291729170
BAKKEN8-20133112091116685275427540
BAKKEN7-20133011281228690274327430
BAKKEN6-20133012071098690302130210
BAKKEN5-2013311268137071232143104110
BAKKEN4-20133012401155713306530650
BAKKEN3-20133113471432818340334030
BAKKEN2-20132812491234750335433540
BAKKEN1-20133114361450764322532250
BAKKEN12-201231143213837593265324520
BAKKEN11-20123013731354729325332530
BAKKEN10-20123114301398795362336230
BAKKEN9-20123014341451851386138610
BAKKEN8-20123115221584892408740870
BAKKEN7-2012311574158497343723692680
BAKKEN6-2012301595166998245884458130
BAKKEN5-201231196321881259571357130
BAKKEN4-20123019871854109541583613545
BAKKEN3-2012211463109158517261401325
BAKKEN2-2012208571286481244124410
BAKKEN1-201231180718691126486648660
BAKKEN12-20113119781941118957825492290
BAKKEN11-201130220623111239553955390
BAKKEN10-201131221321381197486248620
BAKKEN9-201130208719691102000
BAKKEN8-20113120952060106542663886380
BAKKEN7-2011312253225712535493540885
BAKKEN6-201130243322701310505650560
BAKKEN5-20113122622271116752375082155
BAKKEN4-2011292514257615477289723950
BAKKEN3-2011312861301318408898887820
BAKKEN2-2011282793256319069676965620
BAKKEN1-20113136244138211789178562355
BAKKEN12-2010284093359127071025610106150
BAKKEN11-20102638373731219710704107040
BAKKEN10-201031431543471923682868280
BAKKEN9-201030492653032302832783270
BAKKEN8-2010316339623130261148983893100
BAKKEN7-2010311071810955546521146168164330
BAKKEN6-2010137563685784191177312691050
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