Investors -- The Fed -- The Job Report -- No Recession Yet -- January 5, 2023

Data points:

• Dow down 400 points after jobs report;
• JPow telegraphed no rate decrease in 2023;
• he most likely had job data at time of his statement

From CNBC:

• ADP: jobs added in December, 2022: 235,000
• forecast: 150,000 new jobs; a huge miss;
• November numbers unrevised; 127,000 jobs added
• questions: adjusted? seasonal hires? offset anticipated job losses in 2023?
• if this is not seasonal but similar numbers hold through 2023, it suggests exactly how much "free money" and fear of Covid kept folks from returning to work 
• fear of Covid keeping folks from returning to work much less a factor than "free money"
  
• weekly jobless claims, also came in less than expectations
• JOLTS: job market remained strong

Note: from Reuters:

The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics' more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for December on Friday. It has been a poor predictor of private payrolls in the BLS employment report.

Jobless claims:

• 204,000
• a drop of 19,000
• from The Washington Examiner:

While the number of new jobless claims has remained low enough to avert fear that the country is already in the throes of a recession, most economists anticipate that the U.S. economy will enter a Fed-induced recession at some point in the new year. That is because rate hikes can take a while to filter through the broader economy and create recessionary conditions and job losses.

It is expected that as the rate hikes begin to ripple across the economy, jobless claims begin to tick up, and then monthly jobs reports will begin to turn negative.

Thoughts on investing: unchanged. 

Weekly EIA Production Report -- January 5, 2023

Link here.

• US crude oil inventories increased by 1.7 million bbls; inventory at 420.6 million bbls now only 4% below the five-year average; while gasoline inventories are soaring and refiners were operating at less than 80% of their capacity
• US imports (yawn)
• US refiners operating at 79.6% of their operable capacity; this is a one-off due to Gulf coast refiners shut down during the polar vortex last week
• distillate inventories decreased by 1.4 million bbls; now 14% below the five-year average; again, this is a one-off
• finished gasoline inventories increased, while total motor gasoline inventories decreased by a paltry 0.3 million bbls 
• jet fuel product supplied was up 5.1% 
• gasoline demand will be posted later today
  

The Grayson Mill Knight Wells In Banks Oil Field

Four new permits, #39541 - #39544, inclusive, today, January 4, 2023:

• Operator: Grayson Mill
• Field: Banks (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for four Knight wells in SESE 35-153-98, 
• to be sited 244 FSL and between 974 FEL and 1064 FEL

The Grayson Mill Knight wells in Banks oil field:

• 21543, 3,203, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 1H, Banks, t9/12; cum 346K 11/22;
• 24360, 4,884, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 2H, Banks, t12/13; cum 344K 11/22;
• 24361, 3,099, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 3TFH, Banks, t12/13; cum 264K 11/22;
• 24362, 3,509, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 4H, Banks, t12/13; cum 306K 11/22;
• 39541, loc, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F 5TFH, Banks, 
• 39542, loc, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F 6H, Banks,
• 39543, loc, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F 7TFH, Banks,
• 39544, loc, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26F XE 1H, Banks,

Recent production for #21543:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	2359	2257	3337	4780	4741	3
BAKKEN	10-2022	19	794	744	426	1410	1410	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	28	1099	1226	631	1808	1808	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	987	945	522	1341	1336	5
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	955	863	480	977	955	22
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	924	1062	435	798	53	745
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	1092	1091	384	647	0	647
BAKKEN	4-2022	28	877	961	337	1	0	1
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	1197	1145	365	57	48	9
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	717	688	1055	7	0	7
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	692	651	842	18	0	18
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	848	924	781	643	597	10
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	1629	1530	1417	4966	4951	15
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1267	1389	729	2537	2536	1
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	1680	1521	898	2701	2699	2
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	1632	1721	1333	3092	3092	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	1584	1660	1240	4841	4841	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	1890	1862	1696	5585	5585	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	9	907	676	481	1833	1833	0

********************
The Maps

Grayson Mill With New Permits In The Prolific Banks Oil Field -- January 4, 2023

Active rigs: 45.

WTI: $73.37. Held. Up slightly.

Natural gas: $4.077.

Four new permits, #39541 - #39544, inclusive:

• Operator: Grayson Mill
• Field: Banks (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Grayson Mill has permits for four Knight wells in SESE 35-153-98, 
• to be sited 244 FSL and between 974 FEL and 1064 FEL
• see this post for maps; 
• FWIW: these are the first permits of 2023
  

Four permits renewed:

• Whiting: four State Federal wells in NENW 16-148-99; Bully oil field; McKenzie County

Rambling Thoughts -- Investing -- January 4, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.     

Updated.

Investors:

• for those with a 30-year horizon, this is going to be another great year for investing;
• at the rate the Fed initiated and continued the increases in the Fed rate, Schwab data suggests 550 days (range 500 - 650) before the market gets back to "where it was"
• start: March 20, 2022; days remaining in 2022 -- 286
• end, "back to where were" range:
• 500 - 286 = 214 = August 2, 2023 (summer doldrums; dog days of summer)
• 650 - 286 = 364 = December 30, 2023 (Santa Claus rally)
• long-term investors can keep picking up shares at deep discounts at least until mid-year, 2023;
• in other words, this "story" -- at best -- is just mid-cycle. A lot of time left before we "get back to where we were." 
• universities and other magnets for donations will probably feel the effect the greatest as donors cut back.
• AAPL re-sets: now a "value" company; not a "growth" company. Will trade at a lower P/E. Perhaps true also for other companies, like Tesla.
  

Two questions:

• the bottom: how low and when?
• does the Fed pivot sooner than expected? [that possibility seemed less likely as of January 4, 2023].
  

Additional comments:

• for retirees, RMDs are going to be very, very low this year; and will probably remain very low in 2024 if the Fed stays "higher for longer" [confirmed Wednesday, January 4, 2023, when JPow said there would be more rate raises in 2023].
  
• dividend-paying stocks are looking very, very good