Diesel Is The Real Problem -- Diesel Moves America -- October 15, 2022

Diesel costs will impact every product sold in America. 

Ninety-nine percent of Americans do not worry about the price of diesel because they don't buy it (needs to be fact-checked). 

Did anyone notice that US refiners are now operating below 90% of their capacity? Link here.

• U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending October 7, 2022 
• 279,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average
• refineries operated at 89.9% of their operable capacity last week. 
• gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day;
• distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day

Diesel: the real concern has moved from gasoline to diesel

• if one wants to see why diesel fuel is now the real concern, not gasoline, drive I-40 from Memphis to Nashville
• from this week's EIA weekly petroleum report
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by a whopping 4.9 million barrels last week and are about 23% below the five year average for this time of year.
• propane is in good shape:
• propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from last week and are 1% above the five year average for this time of year.

The "numbers" this week were absolutely stunning.

Gasoline Demand -- October 15, 2022

Gasoline demand, link here.

Some say there may have been come EIA manipulating of the graph earlier this summer, and I did not argue against that. Regardless of what may or may not have happened during the summer, I am now confident that the graph is accurate to thee extent that such data is ever accurate.

Four things:

• the price of gasoline is trending higher again, and folks know how to conserve gasoline if they need to;
• the Florida hurricane
• driving season is way over
• cars really are getting great mileage
  

EVs are not the reason. 

Before we get to the graph, did anyone notice that US refiners are now operating below 90% of their capacity?

Look at the weekly drop, astonishing, in million bpd:

• 9/23/22: 8.825
• 9/30/22: 9.465
• 10/7/22: 8.276 -- a 13% drop in gasoline demand week-over-week

Inflation, for the individual,

• the cost per gallon has increased significantly, but
• the overall amount being spent on gasoline may be decreasing?
• that's certainly true for some of us 
• I was quite surprised how little I actually paid for gasoline from DFW to Nashville driving a Enterprise rental Hyundai Kona.
  

Diesel: the real concern has moved from gasoline to diesel

• if one wants to see why diesel fuel is now the real concern, not gasoline, drive I-40 from Memphis to Nashville
• from this week's EIA weekly petroleum report
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by a whopping 4.9 million barrels last week and are about 23% below the five year average for this time of year.
• propane is in good shape:
• propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from last week and are 1% above the five year average for this time of year.

The "numbers" this week were absolutely stunning.

Bank Earnings -- October 15, 2022

Reminder: earnings are tracked and linked at the sidebar at the right. Link here.

JPMorgan: highest quarterly net interest income ever. Let that sink in. Link here.

My favorite graph, link here.

Week 41: October 9, 2022 -- October 15, 2022.

Top story:

• CLR goes private.
  
• Joe Biden is still president.
  
• Joe Biden and Saudi fight escalates;
• Tea leaves: Biden administration will begin banning petroleum exports;
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Ukraine war drags on: Russia responds to damaged Crimean bridge with huge barrage of rockets apparently to knock out Ukrain's energy grid.
  

Top international energy story:

• Tea leaves: Biden administration will begin banning petroleum exports;

Top national energy story:

• WTI plummets on last day of the week after looking "strong."
  

Javier Blas:

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.
  

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

• College football: Tennessee knocks off Alabama;
  
• Kansas City Chiefs pull off a surprising win
• Dallas second-string quarterback is 5 - 0 in the NFL.
  

Traveling -- Blogging Is Behind -- Octobeer 14, 2022

I'm three days behind with blogging, so I will respond quickly to readers' e-mail.

1. Yes, my wife and I are in Nashville, TN, tonight and for the next two or three days visiting our college sophomore granddaughter who has a four-day weekend. 

We left the Dallas - Ft Worth area last night at 7:00 p.m. and I drove the entire distance overnight, arriving in Nashville about 9:00 a.m. Google maps says it's a ten-hour drive so we must have slept along the road about ... four hours? More on the trip later. We did not take a nap all day but spent the entire day with our granddaughter.

2. Something going at the north end of Murphy Creek? A reader writes:

You posted asking about interest in Murphy Creek. 

Marathon is planning to start drilling infill wells in The field in the next 1-2 years. Also Enerplus just drilled a group of MC Kudrna wells in the field and Lime Rock permitted wells in the field in the last year. 

I believe it will be a busy field in the next 1-2 years. 

3. Rig count, from a reader:

The North Dakota rig count remained unchanged because the oil rig added in the Williston basin was set up in Richland County, Montana, where there are now two rigs deployed.... 

4. Banning US oil exports: tea leaves -- it looks like a done deal. But it won't be done all at once. It will be done gradually. Everything I've read suggests folks are missing the big story here. Felicity Bradstock over at Oilprice.com brings us up to date.

5. Three-mile laterals and Tier 3 locations. I still have a note from a reader that needs to be addressed. I have not forgotten.