The Three Most Interesting Economic Data Points In Past 24 Hours -- August 4, 2022

Days US Supply Crude Oil

• Link here.
  
• Increases. This excludes the SPR.
  
• Now 26.3 days; previous week, 25.8 days.

US gasoline demand.

Jet fuel supplied as reported by the EIA, weekly petroleum report. 

From the EIA report, released yesterday for previous week data:

MDU To Spin Off Knife River -- August 4, 2022

Press release.

To spin off Knife River: link here.

Earnings: press release.

• EPS: 35 cents/share vs 49 cents estimate
• GAAP EPS misses by 11 cents; link here.
• full year guidance, $1.75 to $1.90 vs estimate of $2.01
  
• revenue: xxx vs $1.52 billion estimate

SRE -- 2Q22

Link here.

Beats.

• EPS: $1.98; beats by 21 cents; pretty impressive, I would say.
• revenue: $3.55 billion; beats by $550 million
• updating full-year 2022 guidance

Press release.

COP -- 2Q22

Link here. And, here. And, here.

Transcript here.

Profit pops past $5 billion; hikes planned return of capital by $5 billion. 

Beats:

• EPS: $3.91; beats by 6 cents
• increases $5 billion buyback
• declares dividend: 46 cents; in line with previous; forward yield: 2.1%;
• payable September 1, 2022
• also, a VROC of $1.40 / share 
• payable October 14; record date: September 29, 2022 
• VROC: variable return of cash

From Michael Fitzsimmons at SeekingAlpha:

• After two sizeable acquisitions in the Permian Basin last year, more than half of ConocoPhillips' production now comes from its Lower 48 shale acreage.
• However, COP also has significant production coming from Alaska, Australian & Qatari LNG, and Libya (just to name a few) - all of which realize Brent-based pricing.
• Brent oil typically trades at a premium to WTI. Indeed, at pixel time, that premium is ~$5.81/bbl. And that is the advantage COP has over its pure-play US shale peers.
• That advantage was on full-display during Q2 - at least from a realized price perspective.
• However, ConocoPhillips has the potential to become a much more efficient organization when it comes to free-cash-flow generation.

 

Again, CLR With Only Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- August 4, 2022

Germany car production. Link here -- 

iPhone pricing: holding the line:

• forthcoming iPhone base model: $799
• same price as last year's iPhone 13: $799
• second year running that the price of Apple's base flagship 6.1-inch iPhone model has remained the same.
• the base iPhone 12 launched in 2020 with the same $799 price tag

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Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: $91.54.

Natural gas: $8.397.

Active rigs: 46

Friday, August 5, 2022: 4 for the month, 35 for the quarter, 374 for the year

• 37008, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 4-22H,

Thursday, August 4, 2022: 3 for the month, 34 for the quarter, 373 for the year

• 38170, conf, CLR, LCU Foster Federal 7-28H, 

RBN Energy: Can the carbon-capture industry grow as quickly as it needs to? Part 10. 

It’s one thing if you’re 25 or 30 years old and your 401(k) is just getting started — you’ve got time to build it up, so don’t sweat it — but it’s quite another if you’re 60 or 65 and you’ve still got to sock away a lot of money before calling it quits. It could be argued that the environmental community is facing a quandary very similar to that of an aging boomer short on retirement savings. 

The fact is that the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) target of achieving net-zero man-made carbon emissions globally by 2050 in order to blunt the human impact on climate change will require massive new investment and a complete and well-coordinated transformation of the world’s energy complex. In the near-term, progress along that path must include an extraordinarily rapid ramp-up in the use of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). And like an aging worker whose late discipline may be thwarted by an unforeseen health challenge, as we’ve seen with the recent energy crisis, there’s a lot that could derail progress toward those goals. Is the IEA's goal achievable? Maybe. But, as we discuss in today’s RBN blog, it won’t be easy.