Chart Of The Day -- Norway -- June 21, 2022

I've seen this graph a number of times over the years; never fails to satisfy:

This seems to make no sense.

Update On The Golden Pass LNG Export Terminal At Sabine, TX -- June 21, 2022

Number 8?

• if Calcasieu Pass was the seventh US LNG export terminal to be built, is Golden Pass #8?
• Magnolia LNG, Louisiana, would be #9?
• I remember an "anonymous expert" wrote me in 2015 that just because all these projects were "on the board," there was no guarantee all of them would be built, implying that "we" were all getting way ahead of our headlights. 
  

US LNG export capacity: link here.

• record set in 2021, averaging 9.7 billion cubic feet per day = 3.54 trillion cubic feet annually
• forecast:
• an increase of 2.4 Bcf/d in 2022 --> a total of 5.94 trillion cubic feet annually
• an increase of an additional 0.5 Bcf/d in 2023 = 6.44 trillion cubic feet annually

Qatar:

• capacity to reach 126 million tonnes yearly by 2027
• current capacity: 77 million tonnes, 2022

Conversion:

• one million tonnes (LNG) = 48.7 Bcf
• 77 * 48.7 = 3.750 trillion cubic feet annually
• 126 million tonnes = 6.136 trillion cubic feet annually

Usual disclaimers apply:

• there will be typographical and content errors;
• I often make simple arithmetic errors

Golden Pass, XOM:

• 18 million tons of LNG per year = 877 Bcf
• Golden Pass + 2023 US forecast = 0.877 trillion +6.44 trillion = 7.3166 trillion cf/d
• Golden Pass as percent of current US export capacity: 0.877 trillion / 3.54 trillion = 35%

SPGlobal, June 21, 2022 (today):

• capacity: 18 million mt / year
• XOM / Qatar Energy
• project scheduled to open in 2024
• US in talks with XOM to accelerate the project
• one may want to look at this "press release" from just a couple of months ago:

A request by the Golden Pass LNG Terminal developer to bring in more workers to build the Texas natural gas export facility is still pending after a year at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission amid concerns of delay.

FERC staff issued an environmental assessment on March 22 that concluded a Golden Pass plan to boost the peak workforce from 2,900 to 7,700 people per day would not cause significant harm to the environment (CP14-517). But the request still requires approval at a time when FERC is facing pressure over a recent permitting policy overhaul, which commissioners are scheduled to revisit on March 24.

Critics of the policy changes, including gas industry groups and Republican lawmakers, have argued that FERC's new approach will hinder the development of gas infrastructure, even as the White House looks to boost LNG supplies to Europe following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Golden Pass told FERC in its original February 2021 request, which also sought to increase traffic volumes and extend construction hours around the clock, that "construction progress would be severely hampered and successful execution of the project would not be feasible" without the regulator's approval for a larger workforce.

Super-Cycle: Crude Oil

I'm not sure if September 25, 2021, was the first time I mentioned crude oil as entering super-cycle, but it may have been.

Super-cycle:

• they talk about Apple's super-cycle when it comes to the release of their new iPhones;
• I'm beginning to "feel" a super-cycle for light, low sulfur crude oil 

Today, we find:

• the refining margin of WTI 3-2-1 is back to $60 / bbl; and, in addition,
• XOM CEO says crude oil is likely to be tight (supply / demand) for the next five to six year. 

Super-cycle, crude oil will be added as another 2022 theme. 

Some thing the bounce back for the refiners (MPC, Valero, and XOM) will be epic this week, week of June 21, 2022, first day of summer.

Back To The Bakken -- Except Not Much New -- June 21, 2022

Far Side: link here.

WTI: $111.80.

Active rigs: 39 or thereabouts and Lynn Helms says the rig count in the Bakken isn't going to improve all that much over the next two years.

No wells coming off confidential list today.

RBN Energy: can the Biden administration, E&Ps, and refiners see eye-to-ey on anything? Or is it even possible for the current administration to "roll back" the keystoning of America? In a word, no.

In the next few days, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm will hold an emergency meeting with leading energy executives to discuss steps E&Ps and refiners could take to increase crude oil production, refinery capacity and the production of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, all with the aim of reducing prices. 

The prelude to the get-together was less than ideal, though. In a June 14, 2022, letter to the top brass of four integrated oil and gas giants and three large refiners, President Biden criticized them for “historically high refinery profit margins” and for shutting down refining capacity before and then during the pandemic. 

In addition to rejoinders from the companies, the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) defended their actions, discussed the complexity of refined products markets, and asserted that the Biden administration’s statements and policies have actually discouraged investment in refining and oil and gas production. Is there a middle ground here? In today’s RBN blog, we look at the high-level correspondence and discuss how at least some compromises might be possible.

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Fire Drill

Yes, the sailors are practicing "fire drills" in the video below.

An instructor or crew member yells "fire on board" and to put the fire out, the crew "capsizes" the boat, turns it on its side until the sail hits the water. Once the fire is out, the boat is "righted."

A poor outcome is "turtling" the boat which happens when the boat turns completely over. 

Sophia says they "turtled" their boat only once, and successfully capsized it several times. 

Most interesting: this was their first day on the water. Sophia's boat had a crew of four and no instructor on board. 

I asked how they knew how to steer to get back to shore at the end of the day. I asked if Sophia was able to steer well. Her reply:

If there are no other boats on the water I can steer very well, but if there are other boats, I run into them. I'm really a horrible steerer. 

The good news: her brand-new best friend, Alyssa, also an 8-year-old is an Olympic-qualified sailor. At least that's what Sophia told me. We'll sort that out later. LOL.

Back To Business -- June 21, 2022

Top energy story today: a report that anti-fossil fuel Biden-Granhalm administration is asking XOM to expedite its Golden Pass LNG export terminal in Sabine, TX. Absolutely huge; more below. 

Trending: on my Twitter energy feed --

• it's all about the European energy crisis
• Europeans in crisis mode
• will now do everything to conserve natural gas going into winter 
• why all the interest in coal? to conserve natural gas
• quick reading suggests Russian not letting up on squeezing Europe
• indications Russian ploys are working
  
• it's back to coal for Germany, Austria, the Dutch, and likely, the UK
• Germany committing to long-term LNG contracts with US
• Groningen to shake again; 
• if I read this correctly
• currently, 4.5 bcm produced in CY 2022
• was to completely end by end of year, CY 2022
• will now target 2.8 bcm for production year ending October, 2023 
• Dutch will also remove a cap on production at Dutch coal plants
  

Investors: usual disclaimers apply

• OPEC producer says there exists a $30-war premium on the price of oil
• tea leaves: if truce called, sanctions on Russia will fall faster than Biden's polling
  
• oil has fallen so far many companies now at accidental high yields
• DVN now pays nearly 9%
• AMZN: interesting analysis over at SeekingAlpha
• US oil demand: finally, we're going to see a jump
• anticipate: Biden to announce Federal gas tax holiday before July 4th
• the gas tax holiday will come too late to save the GDP number for 2Q22
• having said that, Obama has aid such a holiday -- the gas tax holiday, not the July 4th holiday -- is a "gimmick"
  

Oil demand: even if demand falls, is that bad for US oil stocks? Just asking.

Domestic LNG

• US asking XOM to expedite Golden Pass LNG
• RBN Energy, October 2, 2018; 
• note: Golden Pass scheduled for 2025
• September 2, 2021: 
• Reminder: how the shale revolution changed things. Link here.  Or go directly to this link at Gulf Times:
  
• the first liquefaction train of the Golden Pass LNG liquefication and export terminal in Sabine, Texas, a $10bn joint-venture formed by Qatar Petroleum and ExxonMobil, is scheduled to come online by 2024;

International LNG: huge story -- the huge new Qatar export terminal

• now, XOM joins the partnership.
• others: COP, Eni, and TotalEnergies
• this expansion, previously announced, will increase Qatar's LNG capacity to 110 million metric tons / year vs 77 million currently
• memo to self: find Texas/Louisiana LNG export capacity once Golden Pass on line
  

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First Day Of Sailing School