Number Of Active Rigs In North Dakota Drop Significantly; Kraken With Four New Permits -- June 13, 2022

WTI: a dime short of $121.

Spare capacity: it's amazing that this is finally being "accepted" after all these years -- the myth of spare capacity. Another tweet today: the imminent exhaustion of OPEC spare capacity will be a watershed event for the sector, and one that investors must urgently appreciate. From the Financial Post:

Now, owing to too many years of insufficient investment, as the needs of social spending and sovereign revenue dwarfed those of investing in incremental capacity during a multi-year period of low oil prices, OPEC’s spare capacity is set to become exhausted. This imminent reality will be a watershed event and has enormous implications for the oil market that investors must urgently appreciate.

We have for more than a year argued the world was hurtling into an energy crisis of epic proportions that would result in a multi-year bull market for oil. Our bullish thesis had four basic tenets: persistent demand growth for at least the next 10 years, the end of shale hyper-growth in the United States, defined as shale production growth rates that no longer exceed global demand growth, stagnant production growth from the global super-majors resulting from eight years of insufficient investment and, finally, the exhaustion of OPEC’s spare capacity.

If this these is correct, it is not too late to start accumulating shares in fossil fuel energy.

The usual disclaimer holds. This is not an investment site.

Spare capacity, link here:  

BP: goes green. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova. BP quits Canada's oil sands. Will concentrate on Canada's eastern play.

BP is divesting its last interest in Canada’s oil sands to Canadian firm Cenovus Energy as part of a portfolio reshaping that will see it buy into an offshore oil project in eastern Canada. 

BP has agreed to sell its 50-percent interest in the Sunrise oil sands project in Alberta to Cenovus Energy. 

BP’s exit from Canada’s oil sands follows other divestments from one of the most carbon-intensive oil production types, such as the ones that Shell and Equinor have made in recent years, as international oil majors look to lower their emissions profile under intense pressure from investors and campaigners. 

As part of its net-zero plan, BP has said its oil and gas production would decline by 40% by 2030 through active portfolio management.

In an earlier note, Cenovus was singled out as one of five top energy plays.

The usual disclaimer applies. This is not an investment site.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: a dime short of $121.

Active rigs in North Dakota: 35 or thereabouts; NDIC says 37 active rigs; one is drilling a carbon capture well; and one is a SWD well. That makes 35 oil and gas rigs, or thereabouts. Down significantly from 40 active rigs just last week. Most of the change may simply be rigs moving.

Four new permits, #39012 - #39015, inclusive:

• Operator: Kraken
• Field: Lone Tree Lake (Williams)
• Comments:
• Kraken has permits for three new Wilhelm wells and one new Feller, 
• to be sited in NENE 16-157-99; 
• to be sited 358 FNL and between 1219 FEL and 1318 FEL;

Active rigs: this chart has not been completely updated.

• column 1: date, June 13, 2022 -- current active rigs according to NDIC; is no date, the rig did not show up on the NDIC list
• column 2 and 3: rig, updated per NDIC data
• column 4: operator, updated per NDIC data
• columns 5 and 6: well name and file number not updated
• usual disclaimers apply: typographical and content errors will likely exist

Date	Rig	#	Operator	Well Name	File #
June 13, 2022	T&S Drilling	1	Enerplus	Vixen Federal 7-19-30TFH	38844
	Noble	1	Kraken	Raymone 16-21 2H	38728
June 13, 2022	Noble	1	IHD Liquids Mgmt	SWD
	Nabors B	1	Lime Rock	Hansen B 18-10-2TFH	38891
	T&S Drilling	2	CLR	Bonneville 7-26HSL	38819
June 13, 2022	Nabors B	2	BR	Lone Beaver 1-1-17TFH	37693
June 13, 2022	Nabors B	3	Ovintiv	Kramer..12H	38241
	Noble	4	CLR	Brangus FIU 14-11H2	37945
	Noble	4	Liberty Resources	CA S 158-93-21—23-5MBHX	38864
June 13, 2022	Nabors B	5	Neset Consulting	Halite 1	38890
June 13, 2022	Nabors B	6	BR	Curtis 44-9MBH	30924
June 13, 2022	Nabors X	10	Grayson MIll	Lloyd 34-3 5H	38816
June 13, 2022	Nabors B	13	Oasis	Rey Federal 5201 32-11 3B	38172
June 13, 2022	Stoneham	16	Zavanna	Galloway … 3TFH	29783
	Stoneham	17	Koda Resources	Stour 2918-4BH	38888
June 13, 2022	Stoneham	18	Liberty Resources	AZ W 158-93-13-24-2MBH	38415
June 13, 2022	Nabors B	18	WPX	Wounded Face 14-15HB	38434
June 13, 2022	Nabors B	20	Iron Oil	Boxcar 1-4-16H	37896
June 13, 2022	Nabors B	21	Crescent Point	CPEUSC DeFrance .. MBH	38820
June 13, 2022	Nabors B	22	Kraken	Knox LE 16-21 7H	38872
June 13, 2022	Nabors X	24	Hess	EN-Farhart-….1	38439
June 13, 2022	Nabors B	26	Oasis	Lindvig Beck Federal 5201 12-2 3B	38528
June 13, 2022	Nabors B	27	CLR	Irgens Rexall 9-19HSL 1	37291
June 13, 2022	Nabors X	27	Hess	GO-Haug-LE-156 … 1	38564
June 13, 2022	Nabors X	28	Hess	HA-Dahl…1	38425
June 13, 2022	Cyclone	35	Bowline Energy	Heen 153-104-35-26-4H	35589
June 13, 2022	True Drillinig	37	Sinclair
June 13, 2022	Cyclone	38	CLR	Bonneville 8-23H	38783
June 13, 2022	True Drillinig	39	Enerplus	Lob 149…	38693
June 13, 2022	True.	40	Enerplus	Embroider 149 …	38845
June 13, 2022	H&P	259	EOG	Rixman 24-8TFH	38708
June 13, 2022	H&P	276	Rimrock	Moccasin Creek 14-11 5TFH	38183
June 13, 2022	Patterson	280	Murex	KC-Dustin David 17-20H MB	38765
June 13, 2022	Unit	414	Slawson	Vixen Federal 6-19-30TFH	29294
June 13, 2022	H&P	429	MRO	Dunford 14-10H	38790
June 13, 2022	H&P	454	CLR	Fuller 3-2H	38367
June 13, 2022	H&P	456	CLR	Medicine Hole 11-27H1	38789
	H&P	492	CLR	LCU Foster FIU 6-28H1	38169
June 13, 2022	H&P	515	Petro-Hunt	Schultes 159.. SWD	38933
June 13, 2022	H&P	516	Ovintiv	Kramer … 12H	38245
	H&P	535	Whiting	Mariah Olson 31-1HR2	38879
June 13, 2022	H&P	640	Hunt	King 156-90-5-35H 4	38803
	Patterson	806	Whitnig	Littlefield 11-21-2HU	38856
June 13, 2022	Patterson	808	Whiting	Rohde Federal 14-6-3XH	38739
	Patterson	811	Grayson Mill	Domaskin 30-31 9H	36875
June 13, 2022	Patterson	901	CLR	Clear Creek …26H2	37985

The Enerplus "Game Fish" Pad Is Now Reporting -- June 13, 2022

The pad is tracked here. 

The first (?) well to report:

37428, conf-->loc/drl-->drl/drl-->conf, Enerplus, Cutthroat 149-94-36C-25H-TF, Squaw Creek, Lot 4 3-148-94; 897 FNL 479 FWL; this well looks to be placed to the far west on the "Game Fish" pad; it looks like, of the seven "Game Fish" wells, four will target the Three Forks; the other three, the middle Bakken; see above, starting to report.

June 13, 2022: #37428 is now reporting -- 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2022	23399	20469
3-2022	5065	3818

Others reporting :

36987:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2022	16620	14605
3-2022	633	477

36988:

ate	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2022	34269	30144

 36989:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2022	23535	20702

 36990:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2022	28803	34116

36991:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
4-2022	39082	34377

Inflation And Seniors Who Own Their Own Homes And Have A Positive Revenue Stream -- June 13, 2022

Beer: oh, before I forget. 

"All" beer is on sale at Target. First of all, I have seen no price increases in beer at Total Wine or Target or Albertson's for over two years. I am disappointed if I can't find a six-pack of IPA for $9.99. I don't think that's ever happened here in Texas (that I can't find a six-pack at $9.99 -- the same price I paid two years ago). 

And today, at Target, many of the IPAs are discounted to $8.99. Yes, I stocked up. A huge "thank you" to a reader who recommended

Let's see: $9.99 --> $8.99 is a ten percent discount. 

What's that I hear about inflation?

Here in Texas: you know, I had not thought of that until looked at what I wrote above: Texas really does seem to still be its own country.

But I digress. Some interesting data points.

First, in a recent poll covering many economic issues, this one surprised me: only 34% of Americans were concerned about inflation. I would have expected closer to 100%.

But look at the graphic and note what is affecting the inflation number. One can quickly see why only 34% of Americans are worried about inflation. The thirty-four percent? All apartment dwellers. LOL.

Everything else can be managed.

Second, go back and look at "first." 

Third, for US seniors (those over 65 years of age, and generally retired) who own their own homes, with a positive revenue stream, this could be the best years of their lives. They have the opportunity to scarf up really cheap equities -- equities be sold on a "fire sale" basis in anticipation of the Fed raising rates 50 basis points (whoop-de-doo). 

But look at that graph:

• seniors don't drive much (so gasoline, new cars and used cars are not an issue);
• only a small proportion of seniors even travel any more (so airlines and hotels are not an issue);
• dining out? ditto
• and the list goes on from there.

As one of those seniors, my biggest expense is buying gelato for Sophia.

Seniors with positive revenue streams? How can that be? How can that be:

• their homes completely paid off and appreciating 25% each year: one huge ATM;
• pensions;
• military lifers -- probably the most fortunate of all ("free" healthcare for life);
• IRAs -- RMDs;
• portfolios -- well managed, huge dividend payers after thirty years of accumulating shares in dividend-paying stocks;
• inheritance from their parents, part of the great generation -- Tom Brokaw

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Great Weekend

Wow, we had a great weekend.

Among the many things we did, we spent Sunday evening at the pool with a "play date" for Sophia.

It turns out, her friend is an only child and her parents are Indian who are -- to quote Mr Biden -- making more money than God -- they make at least two huge international trips every year, purely for vacation.

It seems they travel so much I asked Ms Vinisha if she or her husband even had time to work. She laughed and said they both worked for one purpose: to travel.

They have been everywhere. They are now preparing for another trip to France. She loves white wine, and that's probably the reason they are going to France.

The parents, I assume, are in their late thirties, and have one daughter. 

Their favorite destination: China. Particularly, China. 

But they love Mexico -- it's so inexpensive. And living near DFW, they can easily hop a flight from Dallas and easily spend a four-day weekend in a resort near, but not in, Cancun. Cancun is for the peasants, apparently.

They have been everywhere in the states. They say the best place to live is near DFW. Perfect weather, and inexpensive flights to the Caribbean, and flights to every major city worldwide.

Me? I'm done traveling. My favorite excursion is a bicycle trip to Target, though I am looking forward to a cross-country trip to the US Northwest later this summer. 

But, wow, more money than God. Thank you, Mr Biden, for a great sound bite.  

Oh, that reminds me, as military lifers, LOL, when we lived in Germany for seven years, our kids were so sick and tired of visiting Paris, they often refused to go. LOL. And German castles? They've seen them all. Summer and winter. During the winter, we would ski cross-country to German castles and enjoy Glühwein.