Monday, April 11, 2022

Hydrogen -- April 11, 2022

Hydrogen, the "North Dakota story," link here

Now, this update. From Rigzone, "Biden hydrogen hub plan sparks $8 billion race."

Many of the states in the race have decided to join efforts in regional partnerships rather than go it alone. Their approaches tend to be based on available resources.

New York, for example, formed an alliance with Massachusetts, New Jersey and Connecticut last month.

Another partnership that includes Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma would use existing infrastructure to form the basis of its hub. Hydrogen is already produced in the region using natural gas. The hydrogen output is used there in some manufacturing processes, such as lowering sulfur content of fuels from refineries.

A third alliance involving Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming also seems to be taking an “all-of-the-above” approach.

In February, a coalition of businesses that includes Equinor ASA, Mitsubishi Power, Marathon Petroleum Corp. and United States Steel Corp. said they would help work on a hub that would knit together Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

North Dakota hydrogen is tracked here

Focus On Fracking; Bananas: The Next "Thing" -- April 10, 2022

Last night's "Focus on Fracking" edition linked here.

  • natural gas hits 13-year high;
  • US oil supplies at 14-year low;
  • total oil + products exports at a two-year high

WTI: breaks through -- trending down -- $95 -- 6:29 a.m. April 11, 2022.

  • are we in contango yet?

Knows how to pump a stock: Elon Musk won't join the Twitter board. 

How tough is it to find pizza delivery drivers? Domino's is now offering "$3-tips" for folks to pick up their own pizzas. Suggestion: order on the app before leaving work. Pick up on way home.

Are they getting ready to release the kraken? Bananas, the next "thing." Link here.

  • bottom line: bananas have exactly zero genetic diversity
  • one virus / fungus away from extinction
  • on the other hand, how have bananas survived all these millennia?

Freight Market Drop-Off And Amazon -- April 11, 2022

Amazon: Roxy will be among US's largest industrial buildings of 2022. Link here. Details here.

  • fulfillment centers: proxy for US demographic trends
  • Amazon based in Seattle; comes home with new fulfillment center;
  • Puget Sound; Seattle; location: Arlington
  • 2.8 million-square-foot project
  • five-story building (which is way different than what we see in Texas; generally sprawling onoe story facility)
  • 635,000-square-foot footprint, with parking: 10 football fields
  • a 212,000-square-foot mezzanine
  • another 494,000 square feet on floors two through five
  • parking for 1,250 cars; 314 trucks; 51 loading docks
  • $355 million; Cascade Industrial Center
  • Snohomish County; wiki entry.
  • Seattle: in King County to the south; but location of fulfillment center within Seattle metropolitan area;
  • look at this: associated with seven of the ten largest warehouse projects on track to finish this year

Concern: freight train slowdown. Transitory. Link here.


Freight market in five graphics, link here. Direct to ArgusMedia.

Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- April 11, 2022

Not on my bingo card; most confounding story ever? With $6-gasoline in California?  RVs:

  • 2021: highest RV sales ever; beat the previous yearly record by an astounding 19%;
  • 2022: off to an even bigger and strong start
  • RV sales rising = more road trips; more camping; higher demand
  • think: Arizona; Grand Canyon; eastern Tennessee; Ozarks; NASCAR

Terrible maps, link here.

Boomers: average retirement savings. Link here.
prediction: 10-year depletion rule for inherited IRAs will be relaxed for those with moderate incomes; those with smaller IRAs; Congress has almost ten years to act

Not true: $7.49 for a package of three is very, very reasonable. Link here

Shows how much "we" actually believe these stories, link here:


Leonard Cohen: the Israeli war that "made" Leonard Cohen. Link to Common Sense.

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A Unicorn


Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- And So Much More -- April 11, 2022

Masters: one for the ages.

  • one highlight: Cameron Smith, #12
  • favorite post-tournament interview: with Rory McIlroy 
  • best round ever? McIlroy's fourth round, 2022; 64 strokes
  • Scheffler:
    • mother, big firm lawyer; her own successful firm moved from NJ to TX when Soctt was a child
    • father: stay-at-home dad
    • Texas: takes their sports seriously; very seriously

Covid:

  • watching China confirms that the US, and perhaps much of the western world threaded the needle;
  • US releasing significant amount of vaccine
    • currently the US releases "no" vaccine on Sunday; rest of week, about 500,000 doses per day
    • most recent week:
      • Sunday: 1.7 million doses; all-time record for a Sunday? Certainly in recent memory
      • Friday: 1.7 million doses
      • Thursday: 1.2 million doses
      • Wednesday: 1.3 million doses
      • these are incredible numbers
      • reminder: judge rules in favor of Biden -- federal employees must be vaccinated
  • Hong Kong: we'll get to this in a stand-alone post; very interesting; another meme.
    • investment thoughts, coming.

Diesel: will still be one of top five energy stories for 2022.

  • question not be asked: why is diesel such a problem for refiners?
  • France, UK, Germany: biggest buyers of Russian diesel; great graphic; Platts.
  • personal observation from a trucker crossing North Dakota / Montana:

Electricity: US consumers are so incredibly fortunate. Why do they want to break something that is not broken? EIA. Great graphic.

India: March, 2022, fuel demand hits 3-year high; petrol sales at all-time peak

WTI: broke below $96. 

Oil trending down:

  • bad: oil trending down.
  • good: $5- and $6-gasoline not good for the US

Libya: background noise; I have little interest in Libya, but thought this interesting enough to post:

Spare capacity: OPEC+ with no real spare capacity -- Nigerian oil minister.

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Back to the Bakken

Whiting's Lacey wells in the Sanish

  • several new Lacey wells coming off confidential list this week;
  • most of the older neighboring wells are still off line
  • the few older neighboring wells back on line show moderate halo effect

Active rigs:

$95.75
4/11/202204/11/202104/11/202004/11/201904/11/2018
Active Rigs3915366359

Monday, April 11, 2022: 23 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 182 for one year

  • 38514, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 4-28H, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 37014, conf, CLR, LCU Ralph 3-27H1, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 36105, conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 3-5H, Haystack Butte, nice well;

Sunday, April 10, 2022: 20 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 179 for one year

  • 38553, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Pankake 6-6-7-157N-99W-MBH, Dublin, no production data,
Saturday, April 9, 2022: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter, 178 for the year
  • 38554, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Pankake 5-6-7-157N-99W-MBH, Dublin, no production data,
  • 38515, conf, CLR, Thorp Federal 5-28H1, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 37712, conf, Hess, EN-Johnson A-LE-155-94-2932H-1, Alkali Creek, a nice well;

RBN Energy: unseen costs of the energy transition: minerals and metals, part 2. Even RBN Energy has transitioned to "energy transition."

On March 24, 2022, in the wake of the still-unfolding crisis in Ukraine, “energy and climate ministers” from 40 countries convened in Paris for an International Energy Agency summit to send a “strong message of unity” regarding energy security and to issue a consensus on accelerating “clean energy transitions worldwide.” 
But there are already strong signals that accelerating the construction of solar and wind power systems, battery storage and electric vehicles (EVs) won’t be easy and won’t be cheap
One of the greatest challenges ahead is this: The minerals and metals that will be needed to build it all may not be available in the massive, almost unthinkable volumes that will be required. And the materials that will be available may cost a lot more — maybe even enough to force a scale-back of energy transition goals. There was already evidence of impending shortages and higher prices well before Ukraine was invaded by Russia. And the price inflation has worsened considerably since then, in part because Russia is a major supplier of many key commodities. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the major cost challenges of pursuing the energy transition.

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Initial Production

36105, CLR, Gordon Federal, Haystack Butte, the Gordon Federal wells are tracked here.

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222187941004
1-20223093350307
12-20213277848793
11-20213124642733
10-20213530

37712, Hess, EN-Johnson, Alkali Creek,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20221577425557
1-20221847827318
12-20211566225746
11-20212608945434
10-20212678038825