Friday, March 18, 2022

Update A Few Petro-Hunt Phelps Bay Wells That Came Off Confidential One Year Ago -- March 18, 2022

The wells:

  • 37461, conf->F/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-3H, Phelps Bay, first production, 3/21, t--; cum 253K 1/22; cum 253K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202231145561452879685059950276107
BAKKEN12-202131170631718394655935058202932
BAKKEN11-20213019869199391056658204557202275
BAKKEN10-20213122221220251045751759469584585
BAKKEN9-20213023440235711016246631409305492
BAKKEN8-2021312680526747108874737847048114
BAKKEN7-20213126292262751118644218392974705
BAKKEN6-202130255932568011988421474185286
BAKKEN5-2021313069830773150384914848461471
BAKKEN4-20213033264329851437854657509193529
BAKKEN3-202131101151014084741351712464837
BAKKEN2-2021285277758088480961
BAKKEN1-202111600000
BAKKEN12-2020523271934232923432193117
  • 37460, conf-->F/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13C-12-4H, Phelps Bay, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 30K 1/21; cum 340K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202231124161243075735578555327242
BAKKEN12-2021311446014505825265361618023343
BAKKEN11-20213017293174189541713054071930377
BAKKEN10-202131198951972210595657814612219443
BAKKEN9-202130223212238810243625893772724653
BAKKEN8-20213127137271841152462240583813643
BAKKEN7-20213123763236441210143317384654636
BAKKEN6-2021302286422889127023894738373365
BAKKEN5-202131333363336413919576114511012285
BAKKEN4-202130372363734114510576974163615852
BAKKEN3-202131427604332918909722315979512220
BAKKEN2-2021283587935274182915742957087147
BAKKEN1-2021312190721772118453245831671571
BAKKEN12-20201485718144111401046010102281
  • 37459, conf-->loc/A, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-13D-12-5H, Phelps Bay, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 33K 1/21; cum 263K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2022318822869979403782737409202
BAKKEN12-20213199621008596194349042593681
BAKKEN11-2021301127411162975247450407086533
BAKKEN10-20213113602136339653530453414418685
BAKKEN9-202130156291567010789549034104813646
BAKKEN8-20213119545195451279658680553893075
BAKKEN7-20213121797216971293650160434926452
BAKKEN6-20213017071171661097030397240956093
BAKKEN5-2021312490324800126764225241287749
BAKKEN4-20213026516265801734545983416934081
BAKKEN3-202131332603332122671594244459014618
BAKKEN2-202128268622663120495460614582640
BAKKEN1-2021312175621885145503383532915704
BAKKEN12-202020115331108495821406613711271

Updating The WPX Crosby Chase Wells -- March 18, 2022

By the way, quick! Who now "owns" WPX?

Periodically I go through the "new wells reporting" list. Here are a few wells from a year ago, 1Q21, that came off the confidential list at that time but had not posted any production. 

No cherry picking. This was simply the very first one that popped up:

  • 37308, drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HC, Spotted Horn, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 236K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20223114143141551098317422585010882
BAKKEN12-202131208192067613658303961549814553
BAKKEN11-20213020966210331182726438262060
BAKKEN10-20213123926238251452527156217934950
BAKKEN9-202130274612736913823329541971412815
BAKKEN8-20213126859268591812027342230434010
BAKKEN7-20213147048473643243747895392908450
BAKKEN6-20213048434484623821860090560149147
BAKKEN5-202125938559539401100

Others:

  • 37704, drl/NC-->947, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-11C-2-1HS, Charlson, first production, --; t2/21 cum 247K 1/22;
  • 37307, drl/NC-->drl/A, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HY, Spotted Horn, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 272K 1/22;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202231189161888113663285061006617750
BAKKEN12-202131239692385417331309201713013445
BAKKEN11-20213032542325142198940491402270
BAKKEN10-20213120869207961445423686188904448
BAKKEN9-202130286382854220602311581864012093
BAKKEN8-20213132268322682932033398250258362
BAKKEN7-202131542965459545620561962080335393
BAKKEN6-20213045961465114317057062457447410
BAKKEN5-202181471713868131254300
  • 37306, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HG, Spotted Horn, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 266K 1/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202231197771977097831855682189648
BAKKEN12-202131273872715814968331391895913835
BAKKEN11-20213020923210101236626524263040
BAKKEN10-20213126379262691535131549251226017
BAKKEN9-202130310293092519212312151867312117
BAKKEN8-20213128986289861533629160212917610
BAKKEN7-20213153271536502704253591482855151
BAKKEN6-20212658150577714208671250653058361
BAKKEN5-20210000000
  • 37305, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HZ, Spotted Horn, no production data, see this post;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202231127001276198411453254528412
BAKKEN12-202131225982247417242302821659013358
BAKKEN11-20213027981279992045335014347680
BAKKEN10-20213123132230411724226301211164773
BAKKEN9-202130285212842521528318581905812375
BAKKEN8-20213125179251792179926111201625938
BAKKEN7-202131477974812840172495662858120985
BAKKEN6-20213050888509194581263797558152611
BAKKEN5-202146275591357132100

I'm going to quit here. I need to update the Crosby Chase post. LOL. The Crosby Chase wells are tracked here.

The Panic Is Really Setting In -- Now Macron Says Its Time To Nationalize Oil -- March 18, 2022

Can you imagine Macron running an oil company? Link here. I would provide the Bloomberg link but I'm getting tired of the paywalls.

Nationalize US oil: I said it would never happen, but an astute reader pointed out that one can nationalize any industry different ways. Through Congressional action or executive orders, the government can issue rules and regulations that have the same effect as the "classic" method of nationalizing something. 

Tags: do I need a new tag for the blog, "the 2022 oil panic"?

Amazing! Already Friday; One Well Coming Off Confidential List; Oil Continues To Melt Up -- March 18, 2022

SPR: others do, but I don't. I don't buy into the seriousness of the depletion of the SPR. But, for the record: 

Incredibly serious: the other day I mentioned that world leaders were not taking phone calls from Joe Biden.  

Now this: US SecState flies to Mideast to speak with counterparts. Saudi Foreign Ministry official: no meeting has been scheduled with US Sec State Blinken. It will probably happen but Saudis will let Blinken cool his heels for a few days, giving him a chance to get over jet lag. 

Why US shale is cautious: lousy piece by Robert Rapier over at oilprice.com. I would not have bothered to link this except for this paragraph:

Thus, we have oil production that can’t bounce back quickly because some has been shut in, and new production that can’t proceed as quickly due to manpower and material shortages (e.g., fracking sand). It’s not simply that oil companies are sitting on permits. They are working through them. The number of rigs drilling for oil and gas has risen by 60% over the past year. But it can take years for a permit to translate into oil production (if the location even yields oil).

Absolutely not true for the Bakken,
  • where there is "never" a dry hole; and,
  • from permit to production, six months
Update on XOM and the Bakken: no news and maybe won't even happen. Link to Zacks.
I don't think XOM can find a single buyer for its Bakken package.

Did y'all see this yesterday? DVN at the top. 

One of the best blog posts I ever did was on Devon, last August 21, 2021. Readers must like it also; it's the number one hit when searching for Devon on the blog. I don't get many things right, but I right on with this one. I did not buy Devon at the time -- or at least I don't recall buying Devon -- but since then have built a nice position, simply through serendipity. 

Teslas waiting in line to get re-charged: link here. We've been talking about this for years on the blog, but this is a new wrinkle. 

When a bank of Tesla charging stations are filled, the charging process can take twice as long -- simply too much electricity demand for supply available. Folks in Louisiana, along I-10, had an hour wait or longer to re-charge. But when they get home they will rave to their neighbors how great their trip was. 

Jim Cramer: do you remember the recent story in which Jim Cramer said he would never tough "oil" again. 

Never mind. His eleven top picksas compiled by this producer: the top four -- Pioneer Natural Resources, Coterra Energy, Devon Energy, and Halliburton. Two were banks/financial: #10 and #11; Wells Fargo and American Express. One was a semiconductor, #8, NXP Semiconductors. In another Jim Cramer list, which I did not keep/link, he mentions 15 stocks to stay away from. Two of them Rivian and ATT. ATT was at the top of his list to avoid.

Oil:

  • WTI: up 1.4%; up $1.42; trading at $104.40, pre-market.
  • Brent: up 2.26%; up $2.41; trading at $109.10, pre-market.
  • expect to see/hear more signs of panic coming out of Washington (DC)

****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$104.40
3/18/202203/18/202103/18/202003/18/201903/18/2018
Active Rigs3516556558

Friday, March 18, 2022: 31 for the month, 140 for the quarter, 140 for the year

  • 38450, conf, CLR, Jack 9-9HSL,

RBN Energy: carbon-capture projects hold promise, but hurdles remain, part 6. I suppose some day I will with I had archived this, but I just can't get excited about any of this. I'll let others follow it if they want, but not me. except for headline stories and significant stories coming out of North Dakota.

When U.S. lawmakers introduced the 45Q tax credit in 2008, they were planting a seed they hoped would one day sprout into a flourishing carbon-capture industry. As the years wore on and the number of successful projects remained small, they added a little fertilizer in 2018, not only enhancing the value of the credits but easing some of the limitations in the earlier legislation. It’s now 2022 and, with climate concerns and the energy transition at top of mind, Washington is again looking at ways to make the tax credit more effective and spur new growth in carbon-capture projects. In today’s RBN blog, we look at how economic and technological challenges have so far limited the success of carbon-capture initiatives.

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- March 18, 2022

Amazon: completely off the radar scope. Washington (DC) keeps talking about big tech companies getting too big, and then completely off the radar scope, Amazon closes on $8.45 billion MGM acquisition. EU regulators also okayed the deal. Huge:

  • 4,000 film titles
    • "James Bond" franchise; "Rocky" franchise; "Creed";
    • "Thelma and Louise"; "The Silence of the Lambs"; "The Magnificent Seven"; "Raging Bull"
  • 17,000 television episodes 

********************************
The NFL Page

Monday Night Football:

  • ESPN
  • Joe Buck and Troy Aikman sign multi-year deals with ESPN, voice of MNF
  • 20 years on Fox; now jumping to ESPN
  • news last night

Thursday Night Football:

  • rumor is that Al Michaels will sign for Amazon
  • by the way, Amazon is not a television company -- who is producing TNF for Amazon? NBC

Sunday Night Football:

  • Cris Collinsworth, long in the tooth, really long in the tooth, remains
  • Mike Tirico joins him, whom NBC hired away from ESPN in 2016
  • Mike Tirico pushed Al Michaels out of the NBC booth

CBS:

  • no change
  • Jim Nantz and Tono Romo, paired since 2017

***********************************
The Apple Page

iPhone SE: Apple is making a huge change in the way folks can initialize their iPhone SE at time of purchase. 

I first saw the story at MacRumors and now I see Bloomberg is carrying the story. This tells me several things: a) the iPhone is going to be huge; b) the carriers know this;, and c) competition is really, really keen. The article mentions only iPhone SE and only ATT and T-Mobile. 

Mac Studio and Studio Display: this is going to be huge, also; and it's a twofer -- a monitor and a computer:

  • the computer, the Mac Studio, starting at $2,000 but quickly escalating to $4,000, is faster than Apple's $13,000 Mac Pro; link here. The Mac display, the Studio Display, that accompanies the computer will set you back another $1,600. This display is now the only 27-inch Apple display available (as the old 27-inch display is phased out)
  • this is for professionals; even I can't afford this;
  • but it should be huge, and I bet the margins are great for Apple

Mac Studio and Studio Display: Tim Cook said these would be available as of March 18, 202, and apparently customers are already receiving them in Australia and New Zealand. 

Nvidia's top GPU apparently outperforms Apple's M1 Ultra chip; the jury is still out. Some say that Apple cannot match Nvidia in this niche and will take years to catch up.