Help From Readers -- Re: Oasis And Whiting Merger -- March 8, 2020

From a reader:

Oasis and Whiting are going to merge.  Do you know what effect that has on the Oasis warrants that were issued after their bankruptcy?  We own quite a few and are wondering whether we should convert prior to the deal so we are official shareholders, or hold on to the warrants and sell at a later date.  Exercise price for the warrants is $94, with a five year window. 

From a reader in reply:

The warrants would be granted, within the time period, on a pro ratio basis by the merged or acquiring company.

First group "financial / economic" indicators:

• 10-Year Treasury: link here. Up ten basis points. Yield now at 1.851%.
  
• DXY: link here. Down slightly but still trending toward 100; now, 98.99.
  
• Silver: link here. Up almost 3%. Trading at $26.42.
  
• Gold: link here. We're solidly above $2,000. As high as $2,019 overnight; now $2,010.
  
• CBOE volatility index: link here. Explained at Investopedia. Dropped 5.5% from previous, now 34.45, still at very high level. 

Selected equities, pre-market:

• CVX: up another $1.24.
• EOG: up $1.40 yesterday; up 60 cents today; trading at $121.
  
• UNP: after dropping $3.17 yesterday, up $2.47 this morning.
• SRE: down 84 cents today, after being up 92 cents yesterday. Trading at $152.
• OKE: flat yesterday; up 2% today. Trading at $69.80.
• BRK-B: down $2.62 yesterday, up $2.23 today. Trading at $235 this morning; 52-week high, $330.
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Quinnipiac Poll -- March 8, 2022

Updates

Later, 8:07 a.m. CT: leading from behind. Poll was out two days ago. Today Biden bans Russian oil.

Original Post

Biden has united the country: vast majority of Americans say ban Russian oil.

Quinnipiac University national poll -- remember, this was Rush Limbaugh's favorite pollster; nearly 8 in 10 support US military response if Putin attacks a NATO country.

How can vast majority of Americans agree on banning Russian oil? Four percent of the average American's budget is fuel usage at the pump. Do you really think that a 30% increase in this portion of their budget is going to cause them to decrease their usage? Link here. 

For those who think Russia can still keep selling their oil if their tankers can just get out of the Blak Sea: we estimate that Russia's combined exports of crude oil and refined products have fallen by about 3 million bbls per day and could shrink another 2 million bbls per day next week. In round numbers, Russia exports about five million bbls of crude oil and refined products every day. Link here or here for the social medial response. Russia is headed for default within three months. What does Russia import most? Cars, packaged medicaments, vehicle parts, broadcasting equipment, planes, helicopters and/or spacecraft.

For Greta, your weekly reminder on progress towards climate goals out to 2050:

Graphic Of The Day -- Blue States With Cheapest Gasoline -- AARP -- March 8, 2022

Most perplexing: all of a sudden the blue states have the least expensive gasoline? Link here. Great catch by my most "eagle-eyed" reader. So, if you don't have television, and you are listening to NRP, the host will note that the blue states have the least expensive gasoline. Neither my reader nor I can make this stuff up.

CLR To Report One Well -- March 8, 2022

First things first: Apple special event today. Noon, CT. Streaming on Safari. It will be huge. 

Uncle Sam with hand out: it appears "everyone" is saying no. Apparently even Venezuela's Maduro has no interest in providing oil to the US. This suggests to me that Venezuela's oil sector is much like Mexico's. It has failed. They have enough oil for China, but not enough to supply the US. More to come over the next few days.

Oil:

• WTI: $122.80, up $3.44.
• Brent: $127.30, up $4.08.

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$122.80	3/8/2022	03/08/2021	03/08/2020	03/08/2019	03/08/2018
Active Rigs	32	16	55	67	59

Tuesday, March 8, 2022: 10 for the month, 118 for the quarter, 118 for the year

• 38127, conf, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 6-5H,

RBN Energy: how close is Cheniere to FID on another terminal expansion, part 2. Archived. I remember when I first started talking about all these LNG export terminals, must have been six years ago, all the push back I got from folks "it's not gonna happen."

US LNG export terminals are tracked here.

Cheniere Energy is by far the largest owner and operator of U.S. LNG capacity, with 45 MMtpa across nine liquefaction trains at two terminals: the six-train Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana and the three-train Corpus Christi terminal in South Texas. But when Sabine Pass Train 6 was placed into service earlier this year, it marked the first time since 2012 that Cheniere had no capacity under construction. 

The pause may not last long. With global demand for LNG super-strong and prices even stronger — the April Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract hit a record $72.53/MMBtu on March 7 — and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatening future supplies of Russian gas into Europe, Cheniere may be poised to make a final investment decision (FID) on the next stage of its Corpus Christi LNG. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on the next wave of U.S. LNG projects with a closer look at Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage III.

Cleaning Out The Stuff That Arrived Overnight -- And I'm Barely Getting Started -- March 8, 2022

Just when you thought things were getting back to normal:

$200 oil: traders are now betting on $200 oil by the end of March, 2022 -- that's less than three weeks. 

EVs: granted, my twitter feed is very pro-oil very anti-renewable energy, but having said that, those who I follow are pretty good at what they do: follow and analyze energy. Going through the twitter feed this morning suggests that things are not going all that well for EV owners. Common them: high cost of electricity for charging and "range-anxiety."

EVs: electric vehicles will be luxury goods for the next twenty years. Not enough copper production in the world to upgrade the electrical grid or make the batteries required at a reasonable cost for mass adoption. As EVs get more expensive, they will make less sense for 98% of Americans.

EVs: Tesla rivals Lucid, Rivian, Fisker struggling to compete. The stock market has stopped being kind to EV companies that show more promise (LOL) than results. A long and very good article. 

EVs: Rivian stock tumbles as EV maker hikes prices ahead of earnings. How this was handled, by the way, was a PR disaster for Rivian.

Charging footprint: even with long gas lines, it only takes five minutes to fill up an ICE. These cars will each take 15 minutest to 45 minutes to charge. And this is a fairly normal day, I would imagine. There's just no way there's this kind of room for parking EVs waiting to be charged in west Los Angeles. Link here. Note the URL.

Shell: well, that didn't take long -- Shell got a lot of negative press when it said it would still buy Russian oil to keep the price of oil from surging. Shell says it will stop all spot purchases of Russian crude.

Most perplexing: all of a sudden the blue states have the least expensive gasoline? Link here. Great catch by my most "eagle-eyed" reader. So, if you don't have television, and you are listening to NRP, the host will note that the blue states have the least expensive gasoline. Neither my reader nor I can make this stuff up.