Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- February 15, 2022

Meme:

• "25% increase in capex for a 3% increase in production"-- insert whatever numbers you want to insert; there's a huge fallacy using this kind of "reasoning.

Permian:

• forecast to hit record production in March, 2022;

Market:

• Intel: agrees to buy Tower Semiconductor, $5.4 billion deal;
• Buffett: 4Q21 -- increased his position in CVX
• CVX low in 4Q21: $104 / share; in September, CVX was trading for $94
  
• yesterday: $136

RIVN:

• Soros bought $2 billion of RIVN; held it at year end;
• two weeks ago, the value of that stake was down 50% to $1 billion

Ukraine:

• going through the motions
• Russia's parliament asks Putin to recognize breakaway east Ukrainian regions -- Reuters
• so tanks / trucks roll across the border into contested areas?
• prolonged stand-off as both sides negotiate?
• only question: does Russia occupy Kiev?
• at minimum, Putin gets "buffer state" between NATO and motherland 

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Very Short Clip

Hess And Enerplus Each Report A Nice Well; Thirty-Two Active Rigs -- February 15, 2022

Active rigs:

$92.67	2/15/2022	02/15/2021	02/15/2020	02/15/2019	02/15/2018
Active Rigs	32	15	56	64	57

Tuesday, February 15, 2022: 32 for the month, 87 for the quarter, 87 for the year

• 37796, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 3409-1BH, Hanks, no production data,
• 37334, conf, Hess, EN-Rice-A-155-94-0310H-2, Manitou, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 86K 12/21;
• 34064, conf, Enerplus, Trapdoor 149-92-32-29H-TF1, Heart Butte, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 71K 12/21;

RBN Energy: what happens when a midstream company gets flipped?

In the early days of the Shale Revolution, merger-and-acquisition activity in the midstream sector was happening at a frenetic pace. 

That frenzy peaked with crude oil prices in 2014, then petered out over the next five years before hitting bottom in COVID-impacted 2020, when abysmal demand and commodity pricing hampered prospects for the production and transportation of oil, natural gas and NGLs. In those dark days, it seemed the only deals getting done were for bulk orders of hand sanitizer and toilet paper from Amazon. 

Now, with energy prices soaring and energy companies regaining some of their pre-pandemic luster, the pace of deal-making in the oil patch in 2022 looks poised to maintain the momentum that carried through the end of 2021. But buying or marketing midstream assets isn’t nearly as simple as ordering through your Amazon Prime account. Considerable effort is put into the strategy of selling and the diligence of purchasing and, for the uninitiated, the process can be daunting. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on midstream dealmaking with a look at what to expect in a sales process.

Weather Forecast, Eastern North Dakota Up Through Minnesota -- February 15, 2022

I would have missed this. Sent to me by a reader overnight with this observation:

A high of 3 degrees for today.  And with those kind of numbers, it really doesn't matter if it's above zero or below zero.  Now, that part was true. 

This chart is an exaggeration, albeit a slight exaggeration.

Don't Fight The Fed; Don't Bet Against Buffett -- Seems To Be Good Investing Advice -- February 15, 2022

The benefits of sitting on multiple boards. 

Link here. 

Berkshire Hathaway bought Activision Blizzard shares before Microsoft takeover. 

In round numbers: $1 billion deal. 

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc acquired nearly $1 billion of shares in Activision Blizzard Inc before Microsoft Corp agreed to buy the video game maker for $68.7 billion, according to a Monday regulatory filing.

Berkshire said that as of Dec. 31, it owned 14.7 million shares worth about $975 million of the "Call of Duty" maker.

Microsoft announced its plan to buy Activision Blizzard on Jan. 18, in its largest ever acquisition.

Activision shares are up 23% this year to $81.50, though they remain well below the proposed $95 per share takeover price, reflecting potential antitrust concerns.

Is Anyone Paying Attention? USA, KSA, And RUS -- February 15, 2022

Link here. 

I'm sure I'm misreading "things," but it certainly seems there are a lot of folks who still suggest KSA is the #1 producer of crude oil in the world. 

There are so many story lines in this one graph:

This is latest data through January, 2022, I assume, and it's my understanding, the Permian will set -- or has already set -- another new production record.