Friday, January 7, 2022

INYMI: US Energy Dependence To US Energy Independence And Back Again -- January 7, 2022

This article was linked a couple of days ago. Well worth reading. This blew me away, considering the source and the breadth of the article:

The key to achieving energy independence was fracking. This new technology delivered what might be called “the energy independence surprise.”

This article was published summer, 2020. My,  how things have changed.

In the summer of 2020, the writer suggests the US went from energy independence back to energy dependence (of course, that was wrong, too) but now, just one year later, it's clear that the US has moved to energy dominance.

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential LIst; 2022 Outlook For The Permian -- RBN Energy -- January 7, 2022

Japan: at crisis. Energy at 97% utilization. Any glitch ... S&P Global. 

Europe: link to Javier Blas --

  • January, 2022: "Absolute emergency."
  • September, 2021: "No need to panic."
  • we all saw it coming.

Mexico: implications of a full Mexican export ban. Mexican production / exports. Could one say production is about 8 million bopd and exports are slightly under 2 million bopd. Doesn't that sound tectonic -- taking 2 million bopd off the North American market over the next two years? Short term winners? Canada and the Permian?

South America: Brazil -- what global warming emergency? Say what? New law passed granting 15-year extension of a subsidy for coal. Link here.

US shale: at close of current price, the average Canadian energy company could privatize and pay off all of its debt in just 4.4 years with free cash flow. Let's doe the math on CLR and EOG. Link here. 

And now, you are caught up.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$80.05
1/7/202201/07/202101/07/202001/07/201901/07/2018
Active Rigs3411566454

Friday, January 7, 2022:

  • 37261, conf, Whiting, Feehan 11-9H, Sanish, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 55K 11/21;
  • 37130, conf, Hess, BL-Frisinger-156-95-2833H-4, Beaver Lodge, first production, 7/21; t--; cum 90K 11/21;

Thursday, January 6, 2022:

  • 37235, conf,  Bruin, Wm Polar 157-101-24C-13-7B, Otter, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 41K 11/21;
  • 37001, conf, CLR, LCU Reckitt Federal 6-22H, Long Creek, no production data,

RBN Energy: the 2022 outlook is bright for our favorite US basin. Archived.

You can count on certain things this time of year. Alabama is in the hunt for a college football national championship, there’s fresh powder somewhere in the Rockies, it’s mostly still shorts weather in Houston, and there’s a catchy new country song ripe for blog titles. January also brings some unknowns, with pundits throwing out various scenarios for stock and commodity markets, as well as the more recent trend in postulating the outcomes of the latest COVID variant. When it comes to the U.S. onshore oil and natural gas markets, the Permian continues to be old reliable, especially with crude north of $70/bbl and natural gas prices flirting with $4/MMBtu. 
There’s a lot we can’t predict about the year ahead (like the NCAA football championship, though this writer, at least, is pulling for Georgia next week), but our view of Permian production growth hasn’t changed. In today’s blog, we provide this year’s outlook for Permian crude oil and natural gas markets.

Oasis Finds Another Sweet Spot -- Willow Creek -- January 7, 2022

Several wells in process of being drilled / completed in Willow Creek oil field according to NDIC.

One example.

The well:

  • 37916, conf, Oasis, Fraser Federal 5300 32-35 5BR, Willow Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20215544227506
10-2021117551845

As folks know, Oasis was a Bakken pure play in the beginning but then acquired acreage in the Permian. But after a few years in the Permian, Oasis left the Permian and returned to the Bakken, as a pure play, again. 

The dots are starting to connect. I would love to explain what I mean but I would get too much push back and I don't need it. So I'll let it go. 

I'm too tired to do any more tonight, but if I remember, I'll post the graphics of this area: incredible how much activity there is about ten miles southeast of Williston, on the north side of the river.

Statue of a fool:

Statue of a Fool, RVS and Jack Greene

This may simply be the best "find" I've had today. I vividly remember the night in 1969 driving on US Highway 2 west of Williston, on the bypass, with my mom, listening to RVS on the radio. 

Jack Greene, wiki entry:

Jack Henry Greene, January 7, 1930 – March 14, 2013, was an American country musician. 
Nicknamed the "Jolly Greene Giant" due to his height and deep voice, Greene was a long time member of the Grand Ole Opry. 
A three-time Grammy Award nominee, Greene is best known for his 1966 hit, "There Goes My Everything." The song dominated the country music charts for nearly two months in 1967 and earned Greene "Male Vocalist of the Year," "Single of the Year," "Album of the Year," and "Song of the Year" honors from the Country Music Association.
Greene had a total of five #1 country hits and three others that reached the top ten. Billboard magazine named Greene one of the Top 100 "Most Played Artists."

And then YouTube led me to this:

You Win Again, Jerry Lee Lewis

An Oasis Well With A 15x Jump In Production -- January 7, 2022

The well:

  • 21667, 3,285, Oasis, Cliff 52000 14-5H, Camp, t3/12; cum 390K 11/21; full production; 14,395 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 25,000 bbls crude oil over 30 days, recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2021171439513858334022590143427881
BAKKEN10-20210000000
BAKKEN9-20210000220
BAKKEN8-202123968923687205520088
BAKKEN7-20213012411570745298329340
BAKKEN6-20213015961623873387335730

Three newly completed wells in the immediate area:

  • 38008, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 6B, Willow Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20213384937219
10-20212751529209
  • 34222, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 4B, Willow Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20213268234431
10-20211952521265
  • 37266, conf, Oasis, Cliff 5300 43-35 5B, Willow Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
11-20213123633305
10-20212395524946

Thursday, January 6, 2022

$100-WTI? It's Just A Matter Of Time -- January 6, 2022

11:35 p.m. CT, January 6, 2022: I see that WTI is at $80.15.

$100-WTI? It's just a matter of time. 

It's Just A Matter Of Time, Randy Travis
 
But what goes up, must come down.