Monday -- December 13, 2021

Active rigs: the "29" is an estimate; current data will be released this afternoon when the daily activity report is released:

$71.05	12/13/2021	12/13/2020	12/13/2019	12/13/2018	12/13/2017
Active Rigs	29	15	53	67	51

Monday, December 13, 2021: 68 for the month, 71 for the quarter, 323 for the year:

• 38188, conf, CLR, Tallahassee FIU 4-21HSL, Baker, no production data,
• 37352, conf, Oasis, Wold 5397 44-34 12TX, Sand Creek, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 66K 10/21;
• 36862, conf, Whiting, Satterthwaite 13-7-2H, Sanish, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 30K 10/21;
• 36304, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-10B, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 86K 10/21;

Sunday, December 12, 2021: 64 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 319 for the year:

• 37416, conf,  Oasis, Wold 5397 43-34 5B, Sand Creek, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 108K 10/21;
• 37381, conf,  Oasis, Wold 5397 43-34 4B, Sand Creek, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 89K 10/21;
• 37030, conf, Whiting, KR State 13-16HU, Sanish, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 43K 10/21;
• 36305, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-8T, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 10/21;

Saturday, December 11, 2021: 60 for the month, 63 for the quarter, 314 for the year:

• None.

Friday, December 10, 2021: 60 for the month, 63 for the quarter, 314 for the year:

• 36306, conf, Bruin, FB Belford 148-95-22D-15-7B, Eagle Nest, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 161K 10/21;

RBN Energy: new long-term contracts propel multiple North American projects toward FID. Archived.

It has been an epic year for U.S. LNG. After COVID-19 and the subsequent global market crash brought LNG development to a standstill and shut-in production from existing terminals in 2020, this year has seen global prices repeatedly smash previous record highs, driving existing terminals to operate at peak levels and renewing interest in new LNG buildout. U.S. feedgas demand and LNG production will close out the year at all-time highs, but with just a few weeks left it looks like 2021 will be the first year since 2017 that no new LNG terminals will achieve a positive final investment decision. But that’s driven more by the tailwinds of 2020 — the back half of 2021 has seen a tremendous amount of commercial activity in the LNG sector. More than 21 million metric tons per annum of medium- and long-term capacity from planned LNG projects has been sold this year, creating enough forward momentum for multiple projects to move toward FID in 2022. We cover all the latest developments in our LNG Voyager Quarterly report, and in today’s RBN blog we take a look at some of the recent LNG deals and what they tell us about the future of North American LNG.

The WPX Rubia And Topaz Wells Have Been Fracked; Parent Well Returned To Production -- December 12, 2021

This page won't be updated. These wells are tracked here. 

First, the parent well, this well was taken off line 5/19, more than two years ago; daughter wells were recently fracked and this parent well was returned to production, 10/21;

• 20033, IA/144, WPX, Rubia 16-24H, SESE 24-149-94, Mandaree, one section spacing, t11/11; cum 264K 5/19; remains off line 1/21; best month, 16K; was taken off line 5/19; has just returned to production, 10/20; cum 266K 10/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	1600	1393	971	3469	3112	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	19	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

This was one of several daughter wells recently fracked:

• 37320, loc/A-->AL/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HZ, Mandaree, wow, fast frack, 9/26/20 - 9/30/20; and, a small frack, 5.1million gallons of water, 83% water by mass; t--; cum 28K over 12 days; cum 145K 1/20; cum 314K 10/21;

Again, look at full production profile. Again, this is a phenomenal well, and is not atypical for what I am now seeing in the Bakken. Full production profiile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	10873	10935	10494	35990	35830	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	12261	12272	12082	38434	38279	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	12322	12422	10789	33113	32968	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	16702	16662	13776	49843	49683	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	17368	17325	13672	40099	38088	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	24174	24152	17040	51311	48564	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	28617	28560	19354	50437	47225	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	30866	30870	23536	42115	38652	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	21	15871	15759	13533	17975	16187	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	27027	26989	24309	32030	28980	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	29	42536	42555	34409	50108	38798	6609
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	47068	47106	40062	55446	24849	25410
BAKKEN	10-2020	12	28368	28182	15663	33417	8573	21749

The CLR Pasadena Federal Wells Updated -- December 12, 2021

The CLR Pasadena Federal wells are tracked here.

Permits of three wells were canceled a while back but surprisingly these permits were renewed and are now producing oil; see below.

The wells that were taken off line while the wells below were fracked, are all back on line. See the linked site. 

The well:

• 36580, PNC/drl, CLR, Pasadena Federal 13-11HSL, Banks, 33-053-09093, noted 7/21; permit canceled 7/21, but renewed and is now producing:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	34229	70634
9-2021	27859	54724
8-2021	1152	0

• 36581, PNC/drl, CLR, Pasadena Federal 12-11H1, Banks, 33-053-09094, noted 7/21; permit canceled 7/21, but renewed and is now producing:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	18952	38012
9-2021	17939	33908
8-2021	460	0

•  36582, drl/drl, CLR, Pasadena Federal 13-11H, Banks, noted 7/21;

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2021	29915	67859
9-2021	25592	51767
8-2021	239	0

Rigs Don't Matter -- Finally, After A Decade Of Pointing This Out, Someone Is Now Tracking Frack Spreads Vs Production -- December 12, 2021

Link here. 

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There's Not Enough Oil

Doomberg, "the gold rush."

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Nor Are There Enough Chopsticks

I can't make this stuff up.

My wife and I took Sophia to her favorite sushi restaurant last night. Her parents were going to an "office" Christmas party. Sophia's favorite sushi restaurant is a very, very high end restaurant (for us) but it's literally out our back door -- we can walk to it. 

 

It's a wonderful Japanese restaurant. Without tip, for the three of us, the dinner came to $85, almost on the nose. Before this "transitory inflation"  the meal for the three of us might have run $65, although we had not been there in such a long time it's hard to tell.

May and Sophia had only water. I had an incredibly good drink -- the drinks were not priced on the menu, so I assumed my drink would have been in the $15 range. I was surprised to see it was $9.00. Generally speaking, $8.00 is the going price for drinks for restaurants we visit (which is now very, very rarely), so $9.00 was a pleasant surprise.

 

One could tell the restaurant was slightly understaffed but not by much.

The restaurant has, of course, nice, one-time use chopsticks. Fancy but not incredibly fancy. 

I never, never, never eat sushi or any Japanese meal without chopsticks. They did not give us chopsticks, just a fork. 

We asked for chopsticks; normally the server carries dozens in their apron pockets. Our server did not. She went back to get us three pair. When she returned with the chopsticks, she explained that there was a shortage of chopsticks -- I kid you not. 

Knowing that Sophia would either not use her chopsticks or could share mine if needed, we offered to give back one of our  three pair of chopsticks. The server was very grateful and took the chopsticks back.  

A shortage of chopsticks. That cargo ship must still be anchored off the coast of southern California. 

Which reminds me: my wife and I have any number of really, really nice chopsticks, more decorative than functional. But from now on, I'm going to carry several pair of chopsticks when we go out to eat. I'll just keep them in the car. In fact, I might also bring our decorative soup bowls.

Sukiyaki, Kyu Sakamoto

Isn't this something? Even without knowing the words, one just knows this is an incredibly sad song. 

It begins:

I look up when I walk
So that the tears won’t fall.
Remembering those happy spring days,
But tonight I am all alone.

Sunday Night Notes -- December 12, 2021

Re-posting: earlier I wrote

I haven't been following the NFL very closely this year except for a few teams.

It looks like it's going to become a very, very exciting season. With Tom Brady moving from New England, and Dak Prescott back on the field and the Chiefs re-gaining their footing, we're going to have some exciting playoff matches. 

Instead of one dominant team this year, we're going to have several -- maybe five -- dominant teams. 

My hunch: the NFL is going to set some all-time rating records.

Now, later: it never should have gotten to overtime, but Tom Brady is absolutely incredible. The Buccaneers win in overtime with an incredible, soft pass for the winning touchdown. This is Brady's 700th career touchdown. Needs to be fact-checked. See list here. 

Original Post

Sunday night trading:

• WTI: trending... up. Up almost a percent; trading over $72.
• US equity markets: in the green, albeit not by much.

Saudi Arabia, 2022 budget outlook:

• budget: spend of 955 billion riyals, a cut of 6% year/year (2022/2021)
• anticipate revenues of 1.045 trillion riyals
• huge cuts in spending
• huge cut in military spending; the military conflict with neighboring Yemen has started to wane.
• basing budget on $50 - $55 oil
• expects to see budget surplus in 2022 after years of deficit (since 2014, at least)

Covid-19: two weeks Colorado was the poster child for Covid-19 out of control. Today, not only has the number of cases peaked, and now starting to recede, but deaths became a non-issue. Link here. And now the Democrat governor has said "Covid is over" as far as the state is concerned. The snowball is beginning to roll. It will only get bigger over the next few weeks. 

Covid-19: is omicron the best virus ever. Infects everyone -- providing natural immunity -- and symptoms no worse than a "cold." Is this virus burning itself out? 

Covid-19: meanwhile, internationally, Austria is said to be out of control. Social distancing (lock downs) were reintroduced, non-vaccinated were ostracized, and mandatory vaccine announced in late November, 2021, will start in February, 2022. Apparently the virus heard all that, and fled the country. Link here.

Renewable energy; I just posted the top five EV companies per IBD. Now we have three renewable energy companies to watch this next year. Let's see, link to Alex Kimani:

• Plug Power
• Ford Motor
• Enphase (ENPH)

For those paying attention, Ford keeps popping up on many lists. Just saying.

Ford:

• still cheap in terms of dollars ($20 or thereabouts)
• pays almost 2%
• P/E at 30 is about the same at AAPL

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Music Through The Years

I first remember listening to music during my middle school years, September, 1963, through May, 1966.

So, it was fun to watch the "most popular song in each month in the 60s." 

Let's see where this goes.

• August, 1963: You're The Devil in Disguise, Elvis Presley
  
• September, 1963: Blue Velvet, Bobby Vinton
  
• October, 1963: Sugar Shack, Jimmy Gilmer and the Fireballs
  
• November, 1963: You'll Never Walk Alone, Gerry and the Pacemakers
• December, 1963: Dominique, Soeur Sourire
  
• January, 1964: She Love You, The Beatles
• February, 1964: I Want To Hold Your Hand, The Beatles
  
• March, 1964, I Saw Her Standing There, The Beatles
  
• April, 1964: Can't Buy Me Love, The Beatles
  
• ......
• August, 1964: A Hard Day's Night, The Beatles
• September, 1964: The House of the Rising Sun, The Animals
• October, 1964: Oh, Pretty Woman, Roy Orbison 
• ....
• December, 1964: Mr Lonely, Bobby Vinton
• January, 1965: I Feel Fine, The Beatles
• ....
  
• March, 1965: Eight Days a Week, The Beatles
• ...
• May, 1965: Ticket to Ride, The Beatles
  

Enough for tonight.