The Trend Is Not The CDC's Friend -- April 26, 2021

Would you take the JNJ vaccine if the mRNA variants were available and you had a choice.

A four-day review and everything was copacetic, okey-dokey? 

Link here. 

Did the "JNJ pause" derail the vaccine rollout?

That drop from 3.127 million to 2.741 million was not trivial. It represents a 12% decrease from 3.127 million, and oh, by the way, the pool of those now "allowed" to get the vaccine has dropped all the way down to everyone over the age of 16. The most recent average should have soared. 

		Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities	Change from day before	Vaccinations given	Change from day before	Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered	Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday	Average number of doses given / day in past seven days
Monday	April 26, 2021	290,692,005	0	230,768,454	2,107,046	79.39%	26,186,280	2,741,021
Sunday	April 25, 2021	290,692,005	6,350	228,661,408	3,020,948	78.66%
Saturay	April 24, 2021	290,685,655	4,590,470	225,640,460	3,318,230	77.62%
Friday	April 23, 2021	286,095,185	3,911,270	222,322,230	3,374,587	77.71%
Thursday	April 22, 2021	282,183,915	4,245,040	218,947,643	2,995,734	77.59%
Wednesday	April 21, 2021	277,938,875	5,908,080	215,951,909	2,563,671	77.70%
Tuesday	April 20, 2021	272,030,795	7,525,070	213,388,238	1,806,929	78.44%
Monday	April 19, 2021	264,505,725	0	211,581,309	2,174,495	79.99%	26,709,420	3,127,038
Sunday	April 18, 2021	264,505,725	6,010	209,406,814	3,534,901	79.17%
Saturday	April 17, 2021	264,499,715	5,996,900	205,871,913	3,589,620	77.83%
Friday	April 16, 2021	258,502,815	3,102,150	202,282,293	3,965,253	78.25%
Thursday	April 15, 2021	255,400,665	4,402,400	198,317,040	3,525,204	77.65%
Wednesday	April 14, 2021	250,998,265	5,633,460	194,791,836	2,509,055	77.61%
Tuesday	April 13, 2021	245,364,805	7,568,500	192,282,781	2,590,736	78.37%
Monday	April 12, 2021	237,796,305	200	189,692,045	2,644,914	79.77%	29,904,910	3,214,893
Sunday	April 11, 2021	237,796,105	4,370	187,047,131	3,579,422	78.66%
Saturday	April 10, 2021	237,791,735	4,199,780	183,467,709	4,629,928	77.15%
Friady	April 9, 2021	233,591,955	4,193,270	178,837,781	3,958,065	76.56%
Thursday	April 8, 2021	229,398,685	4,104,250	174,879,716	3,403,061	76.23%
Wednesday	April 7, 2021	225,294,435	6,100,220	171,476,655	2,884,580	76.11%
Tuesday	April 6, 2021	219,194,215	11,302,820	168,592,075	1,404,280	76.91%
Monday	April 5, 2021	207,891,395	100	167,187,795	2,134,049	80.42%	27,244,830	3,053,566
Sunday	April 4, 2021	207,891,295	24,650	165,053,746	3,365,324	79.39%
Saturday	April 3, 2021	207,866,645	3,147,310	161,688,422	4,081,959	77.78%
Friday	April 2, 2021	204,719,335	4,222,700	157,606,463	3,975,059	76.99%
Thursday	April 1, 2021	200,496,635	4,914,910	153,631,404	3,358,112	76.63%
Wednesday	March 31, 2021	195,581,725	6,130,440	150,273,292	2,670,947	76.83%
Tuesday	March 30, 2021	189,451,285	8,804,720	147,602,345	1,789,510	77.91%
Monday	March 29, 2021	180,646,565	100	145,812,835	2,350,144	80.72%	23,912,010	2,757,586

The Oscars -- April 26, 2021

I mentioned the other day that as of April 1, 2021, we no longer had television. We ended our television relationship with Spectrum. Long story, but it was time to move on. 

On her own, my wife signed up for another, much less expensive, streaming service on Saturday, April 25, 2021, which was one day before the Academy Awards. If there is one television event my wife will not miss, it's the "Oscars."

So, last night we watched the "Oscars."

Without question, one of the best Academy Awards show I had witnessed. Long story. 

American public: Oscar ratings hit record low "despite diversity." Link here. Not unexpected; folks who did not watch, missed a great event, but apparently the American public has moved on.

Earlier I wrote: 

Oscars; 

• Trent Reznor. Hat trick.
• Netflix: long-time readers are aware of my fascination with Netflix. LOL. Last night, at the 2021 Oscars, Netflix won seven Oscars, beating out the other streaming services. 
• David Fincher's Mank was the lead nominee with ten nods.

Netflix: seven Oscars. Most of any of the streaming services. Obviously the Netflix folks have their pulse on the American television watcher. I'm impressed, to say the least. 

Before we "quit" Spectrum, my favorite network was TCM. After we broke off our relationship with Spectrum, I "lost" TCM. That's really the only television I miss. It's not so much the shows themselves, but it's the presenters putting the shows into context. If they show Casablanca once a month, they have a different "lead-in" every month. It puts the movie in context and explains why TCM is showing it again. 

The primary presenter on TCM is Ben Mankiewicz. His dad was "Mank" the subject of David Fincher's Mank" noted above. Pretty amazing when you think about it. A biography a screenwriter. But not just any screenwriter, but the screenplay Citizen Kane as developed by the screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz. The wiki entry will bring you up to speed. 

There's no question in my mind that Ben Mankiewicz has to be "head over heels" with this. 

And, yes, TCM airs Citizen Kane regularly. I have probably seen that movie four or five times but all in "snippets" until about two months ago when I finally watched it from start to finish. I can see why it's AFI's #1 film (still) but films like Birdman are certainly making it a race.

Notes From All Over -- The Late Morning Edition -- CRC Turns Green -- April 26, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Late morning:

• NASDAQ near its all-time high; now at its highest since mid-February, 2021

The market:

• the stock of the day? DFS: up 3.40%; up $3.50/share; trading at $106.29; about a dollar below its 52-week high;
  
• all that hand-wringing? 10-yr-treasury holds below 1.6%; whoo-hoo!
  
• TSLA: reports after market close today; at the open, p 2%; up $14.60; trading at $743;
  
• CRC: down one percent at the open; dropped as much as 7% on Friday (after the Newsom announcement before recovering a bit)
• mid-morning: up almost 3%; up 66 cents; trading at $23.11
  
• UNP: at the open, up 0.5%; up almost a dollar; trading at $224.50;
• transcript: 1Q21;
• late morning, up 1.4%; up $3.32/share; trading at $227 
• hits a 52-week high
  
• AAPL: up slightly; trading at $134.62;
• BRK-B: up slightly; trading at $272.86, which is about a dollar below its 52-week high;
• QCOM: up 2%; up $2.85/share; trading at $138.27;
• AMD: up 2.82% up $2.34; trading at $85.08
• XLNX: up 2.93%; up $3.80; trading at $133.46;
  
• Bill Gates' top 10 high dividend stocks: clickbait;

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; The NDIC's Friday Daily Activity Report -- April 26, 2021

These are stories I will follow during the day. There is so much going on, it's impossible to keep up, but I will get back to all these stories throughout the day.

AAPL:

• so many stories and so many story lines this week
• setting up campus in North Carolina;
• commits a half-trillion dollars on spending in US; will add 20,000 new jobs across the country; 
• this is up from $350 billion, 5-year plan back in 2018; 
• so basically, one billion dollars / year
  

Oscars; 

• Trent Reznor. Hat trick.
• Netflix: long-time readers are aware of my fascination with Netflix. LOL. Last night, at the 2021 Oscars, Netflix won seven Oscars, beating out the other streaming services. 
• David Fincher's Mank was the lead nominee with ten nods.
  

Covid-19:

• connecting the dots, even a caveman could do it:
• the JNJ "pause"
• now, Fauci: worried about "vaccine hesitancy" -- well, duh!
• Fauci can read the numbers, too;

Energy:

• EVs: never saw this coming
• why wind and solar energy are doomed to failure, re-posting;

The market:

• all that hand-wringing? 10-yr-treasury holds below 1.6%; whoo-hoo!
  
• TSLA: reports after market close today; at the open, p 2%; up $14.60; trading at $743;
  
• CRC: down one percent at the open; dropped as much as 7% on Friday (after the Newsom announcement before recovering a bit)
  
• UNP: at the open, up 0.5%; up almost a dollar; trading at $224.50;
• transcript: 1Q21;
• Bill Gates' top 10 high dividient stocks: clickbait;

Global economy:

• UK economy set to grow faster than the US this year -- Goldman Sachs
• forecasts 7.8% for the year

Big oil: 

• cash rolling in but it may be awhile before investors see that cash;
• the Newsom announcement;
• Exxon retreated from oil trading even as rivals made fortunes; Reuters;

Taxes:

• capital gains tax will hit the richest 0.3%; 

Fail:

• Haven fizzles; sleeks away quietly; did anyone know? Predictable but the big story? How fast it happened -- in less than three years it crashed and burned.

Global warming:

• This story is big but another story line is even bigger; link here. 

Critical race theory:

• how it relates to the energy story; one word, anecdotal;

Tracking US military:

• smartphones;

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

NDIC daily activity report for Friday, April 23, 2021: in addition to the five new Hess BB-Olson permits, #38272 - #38276, inclusive, reported earlier, the following was also reported in the Friday report:

Thirteen permits renewed:

• NP Resources (8): four Little Mo Federal permits in Billings Company; four Elkhorn Ranch Federal permits in Billings County;
• Hunt Oil (2): one Palermo permit and one Nichols permit, both in Mountrail County;
• MRO (2): a Rutledge permit and a Calvin permit, both in Dunn County;

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36356, incorrectly identified as #34627 in the DAR by the NDIC, drl/A, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 3-12-1H, Sand Creek, no production data,
  
• 37042, drl/A, Eagle Operating, Wobbly 19-9, Great Northern, target: Madison; vertical well; first production, 2/20; t--; cum 13K 2/21;
  
• 32414, SI/A, CLR, Polk Federal 10-33H1, Banks, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 115K 2/21;
  
• 36358, drl/A, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 2-12-1H, Sand Creek, no production data,
  
• 36354, drl/A, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 8-12-1TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
  
• 36362, drl/A, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 1-12-1H, Sand Creek, no production data,
  

Back to today.

Active rigs:

$61.27	4/26/2021	04/26/2020	04/26/2019	04/26/2018	04/26/2017
Active Rigs	15	29	64	63	48

Two wells coming off the confidential list --

Monday, April 26, 2021: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 102 for the year:

• 36923, AL/A, MRO, Thorson USA 41-8H, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 187K 2/21;

Sunday, April 25, 2021: 20 for the month, 20 for the quarter, 101 for the year:

• 37515, F/A, MRO, Pelarske USA 44-5TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 160K 2/21;

Saturday, April 24, 2021: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 100 for the year:

• None.

RBN Energy: how natural gas production has continued to outpace crude since Covid hit. 

Prior to COVID, crude oil and natural gas production in the U.S. had been on a tear, surging in tandem in the years following the 2014-15 price meltdown. But then the pandemic decimated domestic demand, crushing prices. Predictably, producers cut back production, particularly in crude-focused basins, and it was widely expected that associated gas from those regions would suffer in proportion. But that didn’t happen. Gas volumes have dropped somewhat, but not nearly to the extent that crude did. Said another way, the ratio of gas production to oil production has risen — and that’s been true at both the total U.S. level and in the primary unconventional basins for oil production. In today’s blog, we will look at the factors driving the trend of higher gas-to-oil ratios.