Making American Great Again -- Keeping America Great -- Building Back Better -- March 15, 2021

Most important data point for millennial investors:

• had it not been for Trump, we would be comparing the Biden economy with that of Woodrow Wilson (#43), Herbert Hoover (#44), Calvin Coolidge (42), Jimmy Carter (#45), and Barack Obama (#41):
• ranking subject to change; not enough data yet to rank current president
  
• the Biden economy will be compared with his predecessor's economy; huge deal.

US economy soaring: link here.

Re-posting:

Link here.

If Goldman's forecast is correct, it would mark the largest economic expansion for the U.S. in generations.

• Not only would 8% annual growth denote a stupendous turnaround from the coronavirus pandemic, it would significantly outpace the firm's growth expectations for the U.S. from as recently as late 2020.

What they're saying: "We have raised our GDP forecast to reflect the latest fiscal policy news and now expect 8% growth in 2021 (Q4/Q4) and an unemployment rate of 4% at end-2021 — the lowest among consensus forecasts—that falls to 3.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023," Goldman said in the note.

• "But we expect inflation dynamics to mirror those last cycle, and therefore expect this forecast to translate to only 2.1% core PCE inflation in 2023."

Between the lines: Goldman has been exceptionally bullish on the prospects for U.S. growth all year, far outpacing most other Wall Street banks' expectations.

• The average growth expectation among Wall Street analysts is 4.7%, according to FactSet, and was 3.9% as recently as November.
• Further, economic growth of 8% with inflation reaching just 2.1% would be almost unprecedented.

By the numbers: A growth of 8% this year would put U.S. GDP at around $22.6 trillion, marking a full recovery after the economy shrank 4.1% in 2020.

• U.S. GDP hasn't grown 8% in a year since 1951, when it totaled $356 billion.

More at the link.

By the way, Janet Yellen is also predicting full employment by the end of 2021.

And Now You Know: USGS Rules Regarding Use Of Apostrophes -- March 15, 2021

Cut to the chase, five exceptions:

• Martha's Vineyard (1933);
• Ike's Point in New Jersey (1944)
• John E's Pond in Rhode Island (1963)
• Carlos Elmer's Joshua View (1995)
• Clark's Mountain in Oregon (2002)
  

USGS also discourages the use of periods.

Link here:

Since its inception in 1890, the U.S. Board on Geographic Names has discouraged the use of the possessive form—the genitive apostrophe and the “s”. The possessive form using an “s” is allowed, but the apostrophe is almost always removed. The Board's archives contain no indication of the reason for this policy.

However, there are many names in the GNIS database that do carry the genitive apostrophe, because the Board chooses not to apply its policies to some types of features. Although the legal authority of the Board includes all named entities except Federal Buildings, certain categories—broadly determined to be “administrative”—are best left to the organization that administers them. Examples include schools, churches, cemeteries, hospitals, airports, shopping centers, etc. The Board promulgates the names, but leaves issues such as the use of the genitive or possessive apostrophe to the data owners.

Myths attempting to explain the policy include the idea that the apostrophe looks too much like a rock in water when printed on a map, and is therefore a hazard, or that in the days of “stick–up type” for maps, the apostrophe would become lost and create confusion. The probable explanation is that the Board does not want to show possession for natural features because, “ownership of a feature is not in and of itself a reason to name a feature or change its name.”

Since 1890, only five Board decisions have allowed the genitive apostrophe for natural features. These are: Martha's Vineyard (1933) after an extensive local campaign; Ike's Point in New Jersey (1944) because “it would be unrecognizable otherwise”; John E's Pond in Rhode Island (1963) because otherwise it would be confused as John S Pond (note the lack of the use of a period, which is also discouraged); and Carlos Elmer's Joshua View (1995 at the specific request of the Arizona State Board on Geographic and Historic Names because, “otherwise three apparently given names in succession would dilute the meaning,” that is, Joshua refers to a stand of trees. Clark’s Mountain in Oregon (2002) was approved at the request of the Oregon Board to correspond with the personal references of Lewis and Clark.

GDP: China At 8.1%; EU At 3.8% -- Sources; US At 8% -- GS -- Ides Of March -- 2021

Link here.

If Goldman's forecast is correct, it would mark the largest economic expansion for the U.S. in generations.

• Not only would 8% annual growth denote a stupendous turnaround from the coronavirus pandemic, it would significantly outpace the firm's growth expectations for the U.S. from as recently as late 2020.

What they're saying: "We have raised our GDP forecast to reflect the latest fiscal policy news and now expect 8% growth in 2021 (Q4/Q4) and an unemployment rate of 4% at end-2021 — the lowest among consensus forecasts—that falls to 3.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023," Goldman said in the note.

• "But we expect inflation dynamics to mirror those last cycle, and therefore expect this forecast to translate to only 2.1% core PCE inflation in 2023."

Between the lines: Goldman has been exceptionally bullish on the prospects for U.S. growth all year, far outpacing most other Wall Street banks' expectations.

• The average growth expectation among Wall Street analysts is 4.7%, according to FactSet, and was 3.9% as recently as November.
• Further, economic growth of 8% with inflation reaching just 2.1% would be almost unprecedented.

By the numbers: A growth of 8% this year would put U.S. GDP at around $22.6 trillion, marking a full recovery after the economy shrank 4.1% in 2020.

• U.S. GDP hasn't grown 8% in a year since 1951, when it totaled $356 billion.

More at the link.

By the way, Janet Yellen is also predicting full employment by the end of 2021. 

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Market Today

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Subscribers: There was a report recently that Disney surpassed its projection of new subscribers by a huge number. Today, it's ATT. Link here. 

AT&T recently provided its business and financial outlook, wherein the telecom company raised its long-term growth forecast for Home Box Office subscribers on the back of its international expansion.

AT&T said that it expects worldwide subscribers for HBO and HBO Max to reach 120-150 million by the end of 2025, which is significantly higher than its previous forecast of 75-90 million subscribers. Furthermore, it now expects revenues from the HBO business to more than double over the next five years.

For 2021, AT&T expects to end the year with a subscriber base of 67-70 million for HBO and HBO Max, reflecting year-over-year growth in the range of 9.8%-14.8%.

The company reiterated its consolidated revenue growth outlook of around 1%. Moreover, adjusted EPS is expected to remain stable compared to 2020. AT&T said that the international expansion of HBO Max and the launch of an advertising-supported version of HBO Max is likely to drive its subscriber base and revenues in 2021.

BRK-B: the ultimate Warren Buffett stock is near its "buy zone." Link at Investor's Business Daily.

Another record:

Energy yields: Pioneer Resources' new variable dividend policy could quadruple its yield -- Mike Fitzsimmons. 

• Pioneer has 920,000 net acres in the core of the Permian Basin - none of which is on Federal land.
• the recent Parsley acquisition will lead to additional cost synergies and operational efficiencies.
• PXD delivered $294 million of FCF in Q4 and is initiating a variable dividend plan that will return ~75% of FCF to ordinary shareholders.
• as a result, and given WTI at $55-$60/bbl, PXD's yield could easily rise from the current 1.4% to a range of 5-6%.
  

Hoping: I hope Biden doesn't wimp out on his federal leasing ban. Period. Dot. But he will. 

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The Apple Page

Apple overtook Samsung to become world's largest smartphone maker in 4Q20. Link here. 

Apple produced 77.6 million iPhones units in the fourth quarter of 2020, 69.8 million of which were iPhone 12 models, helping the company overtake Samsung to become the top global smartphone brand. 

The analysts' latest report says Apple sold 10 million more phones than its biggest rival over the quarter, with Samsung selling 67 million phones, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 14%. By contrast, Apple recorded an 85% increase QoQ, driven in part by Apple's support for 5G across its latest smartphone lineup and its adoption of an aggressive pricing strategy.

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Mark Perry's All-Chart Page

Link here.

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The Media Page

Link here.  

Zavanna Reports One Well Today -- March 15, 2021

#2: The US overtook Saudi Arabia as India's second biggest oil supplier in February. Reuters. Link here. Apparently overtook Russia and Saudi Arabia in 2020 supplying France.

Midland: Earthstone begins 2021 drilling program in Midland County, TX -- one rig; 2021 CAPEX of $100 million. Production guidance: 20,000 boepd. 

Bad math: on the way to looking up something else late last night, I noted this. Do you remember that YouTube video in which Brian Williams and a New York Times editor completely blew it doing simple math? That video had millions of views and I posted it a number of times on the blog.

I noted last night that YouTube had removed that video. It was taken down at my posts where I had posted it. I was able to find it again -- this one was posted March 5, 2020 -- so it was one "they" missed -- note it has only 12,000 views over the past year.

Speaks volumes about YouTube. If this one is pulled there are others that are still there and others will be re-posted, but NBC/NY Times/Brian Williams are doing what they can to pull this video. LOL. Other videos that will need to be pulled at this link.

Here's the link. Embedded:

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.69	3/15/2021	03/15/2020	03/15/2019	03/15/2018	03/15/2017
Active Rigs	14	55	65	57	46

Only one well coming off confidential list today -- Monday, March 15, 2021: 13 for the month, 69 for the quarter, 69 for the year.

• 37036, F/A, Zavanna, Leopard 20-18 4TFH, Cow Creek, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 91K 1/21; fracked 3/7/20 - 3/17/20; 7.4 million gallons of water; 88.8% water by mass;
  

RBN Energy: what puts Enterprise Houston, LOOP near top of crude export ranking, part 2. 

The competition for barrels and the top-spot ranking among the Gulf Coast’s crude oil export terminals is like any good PGA tournament or NASCAR race, with lots of changes in who’s out in front and the ever-present possibility of a surprise — the export-market equivalent of an eagle at the last hole at the Masters or a spin-out and multicar crash on the last lap at the Daytona 500. A couple of years ago, in the first quarter of 2019, the Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal in Houston was at the top of the crude-exports leaderboard, followed by Energy Transfer’s Nederland Terminal and Moda Midstream’s facility in Ingleside, TX. Since then, Enterprise has ceded the #1 spot to Moda, volumes out of Nederland have slowed to a trickle, and the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, with its unique ability to fully load Very Large Crude Carriers, has rocketed to #3. Today, we continue our series on Texas and Louisiana’s oil export facilities with a look at the Gulf Coast’s second- and third-largest terminals by export volume.

0002 A.M. CT -- Monday, The Ides Of March

Posted: Focus on Fracking, March 14, 2021.

• record jump in oil refining; distillate exports at eleven-year low; Saudi cut and Texas Freeze leave oil short of demand;
• refinery throughput was fifth lowest in 32 years even after a record increase in refinery throughput;
• distillate exports at eleven-year low, domestic distillate demand at sixteen-month high;
• OPEC report shows February oil supplies fell short of demand after the Saudi's cut and Texas freeze