Thursday, March 11, 2021

Taking A Break -- The Literature Page -- March 11, 2021

First this:

Why? In the current issue of The New York Review of Books, page 15, "Splash," by Marina Warner, an essay / book review of Merpeople: A Human History, Vaughn Scribner, Reaktioin, 318 pp, $27.50. 

Sophia loves unicorns and mermaids. And here we have a long, long -- 2.5 pages -- essay on mermaids, or as Scribner calls them, merpeople. This is not simply politically correct, or "woke," but sea-people can be both men and women. Even Sophia knows that. 

Marina (what an apt first name for an essay on marine people, LOL), begins:

In 1819 the French inventor Cagniard de La Tour gave the name sirène to the alarm he had devised to help evacuate factories and mines in case of accident—in those days all too frequent. The siren, or mermaid, came to his mind as a portent, a signal of danger, although it might seem a contradiction, since the sirens’ song was fatal to mortals: in the famous scene in the Odyssey, Odysseus ties himself to the ship’s mast to hear it, and orders his men to plug their ears with wax and ignore him when he pleads to be set free to join the singers on the shore. Homer does not describe these irresistible singers’ appearance—only their flowery meadow, which is strewn with the rotting corpses of their victims—but he tells us that their song promises omniscience: “We know whatever happens anywhere on earth.” This prescience inspired Cagniard: he inverted the sirens’ connection to fatality to name a device that gives forewarning.

In Greek iconography, the sirens are bird-bodied, and aren’t instantly seductive in appearance but rather, according to the historian Vaughn Scribner in Merpeople, “hideous beasts.” A famous fifth-century-BCE pot in the British Museum shows Odysseus standing stiffly lashed to the mast, head tilted skyward, his crew plying the oars while these bird-women perch around them, as if stalking their prey: one of them is dive-bombing the ship like a sea eagle. An imposing pair of nearly life-size standing terracotta figures from the fourth century BCE, in the collection of the Getty Museum, have birds’ bodies and tails, legs and claws, and women’s faces; they too have been identified as sirens (see illustration below).

So, "siren," as an "alarm," was a word coined by a French inventor. 

From the internet:
 

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The Music Page

From the same issue of The New York Review of Books, p. 31, "This Ain't No Disco," Dan Chiasson, an essay / book review on Remain in Love: Talking Heads, Tom Tom Club, Tina, Chris Frantz, St Martin's, 384 pp, $29.99.

Chris Frantz was the drummer for the Talking Heads and the Tom Tom Club.

Some time ago I posted a note about Tina Weymouth on the blog, a most fascinating woman, and then, lo and behold, someone else thought the same thing, wrote a book, and then someone else writes an essay on all of that. Amazing. 

By the way, on a completely different note, "Chiasson" is a lovely surname, isn't it?

The four members of the American band Talking Heads came from intact, midcentury American families, with kind and presentable parents who turned up at their gigs, or supplied a hand-me-down station wagon for touring, or fluffed the guestroom pillows when the band came through town. 
Chris Frantz, the drummer, was a prep school kid from Kentucky and Pittsburgh whose first memories included Christmas parties at Harvard Law School, where his father, a West Point graduate who later became an army general, was a student; later, Frantz played in the woods at Monticello, where his mother volunteered. 
When Frantz got to know his wife, Tina Weymouth, the band’s bassist, she was living in her parents’ carriage house on a leafy street in Providence, Rhode Island. Weymouth’s father, Ralph Weymouth, was an admiral who became a prominent antinuclear activist; her mother was from an old French family, and together they raised eight children. 
David Byrne’s Scottish parents, an engineer and special education teacher, had settled outside of Baltimore in a house they decorated with their son’s art projects. 
Jerry Harrison, the only child of an ad executive and a painter, came on board late, in 1977. Harrison, a veteran of the Boston band Modern Lovers, was working toward an architecture degree when Frantz, Weymouth, and Byrne turned up at his drafting desk at the Harvard School of Design and persuaded him to join the band.

The "names" that keep crossing paths here, 1973 - 1979, or who stole from whom, or who influenced whom, or who learned from whom:

  • The Talking Heads
  • The Tom Tom Club
  • CBGB
  • Suzi Quatro
  • Blondie

Over-posted but no option, just the links for now:

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And Finally, Because Everything Must Be Done In "Threes"

"Awful But Joyful," Deborah Eisenberg, pp. 43, an essay / book review of two books:
The Copenhagen Trilogy: Childhood; Youth; Dependency, Tove Ditlevsen, 370 pp., $30.00; and,
The Faces, Tove Ditlevsen, 129 pp., £8.99 (paperback)

The essay begins:

By the time Tove Ditlevsen committed suicide in 1976, she was one of Denmark’s most popular and acclaimed writers. In the fifty-eight years of her life, she’d had two children and custody of a third, and four husbands. She’d soared out of poverty, and all told, she’d published about thirty books—primarily collections of poetry but also novels, memoirs, stories, and children’s books. She’d written magazine pieces, too, and, of all things, an advice column.

The information readily available about her in English is oddly sketchy, and little of her work has been translated into English, but what we have includes her memoir, The Copenhagen Trilogy, and a novel, The Faces. Both were published in Danish between 1967 and 1971, though neither was translated into English until years later.

The Copenhagen Trilogy and The Faces are very different books, but they draw on the same material—Ditlevsen’s life—and both display a distinctive style; an uncanny vividness; a gift for conveying atmospheres and mental sensations and personalities with remarkable dispatch; the originality and deadpan, trapdoor humor of the significantly estranged; a startling frankness; and a terrible commotion of unresolved conflicts and torments. Both books also accelerate from zero to sixty before anyone has a chance to buckle up.

The Faces starts right off with the protagonist, Lise Mundus, experiencing flickerings of delusion, which in short order explode into full-blown psychosis. It’s generally a poor idea to go rooting around in a work of fiction for clues to its author’s life and psyche, but the invitation here is so unequivocal it seems boorish to turn it down. Among other parallels Mundus is, like the author, a famous writer, and like the author she is suffering from marital problems as well as the inability to work that’s known rather emptily as “writer’s block”; Mundus was the maiden name of Ditlevsen’s mother (who once urged her daughter to use it as a nom de plume); and Ditlevsen herself endured several institutionalizations.

My closest friend in graduate school wanted to go into psychiatry, but for various reasons ended up in research on transplantation, at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN. He often said that there was a very, very fine line between madness and insanity, and of all the medical specialties, one could have the greatest impact if one could bring madness back across the line.

Here We Go -- Gasoline Demand -- March 11, 2021

Link here. 

Only a handful of states have announced a lifting of restrictions.

Keep that in mind when looking at this chart. 

And, US driving season has not yet begun. 

And, US consumers who drive POVs, are pivoting toward gas guzzling SUVs, cross-overs, and pickup trucks. 

And ... 

Meanwhile, the natural gas fill rate, link here. 


I don't know anything about natural gas. I've said that many times on the blog. But one thing I have learned. Crude oil and natural gas are very, very different entities. There will always be enough natural gas to meet demand within a fairly narrow band. 

Absolutely not true when it comes to crude oil.

Warren Buffett -- Idle Thoughts -- March 11, 2021

New headlines:

Previously posted:

Buffett:

Buffett:

  • BNSF? Best buy ever? How Berkshire Hathaway makes money, Investopedia; 
  • BNSF Railway Berkshire's freight rail transportation business operates one of the largest systems in North America. BNSF Railway ships coal as well as consumer, industrial, and agricultural products.
  • BNSF Railway's revenue fell 11.3% in 2020 to $20.9 billion as EBT fell 6.3% to $6.8 billion. Rail transport comprised only 9% of Berkshire's total revenue, but it generated over 25% of total EBT.

Something to think about:

  • in the big scheme of things, BNSF and Union Pacific are two peas in a pod, as they say
  • Berkshire Hathaway's EBITDA for the three months ended in December, 2020, was $49,364 million; its EBITDA for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in December, 2020, was $70,372 million
    • 25% of $70 billion is $17.5 billion
  • Union Pacific EBITDA for the quarter ending December 31, 2020 was $2.563B, a 3.61% decline year-over-year. Union Pacific EBITDA for the twelve months ending December 31, 2020, was $10.044B, a 6.74% decline year-over-year.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; We're Goin' To The Moon; Why US Shale Production Keeps Exceeding Expectations -- March 11, 2021


Most interesting bit of trivia posted this week: BNSF accounts for twenty-five percent of Berkshire Hathaway's EBITDA. Previously posted. I don't know about you but I find that absolutely incredible. BNSF only accounts for 9% of BRK's holdings, but accounts for 25% of its income EBITDA or something like that. I might have that wrong, but if you want to check, it was posted yesterday with a link.

We're goin' to the moon.

Firster things firster: this is so cool. Yesterday I posted a note about John Fogerty and CCR. Today, RBN Energy's choice of songs: Centerfield by John Fogerty. Whoo-hoo. Link here. I was going to post this song last night but I felt I had posted it so many times, I thought, "not again." But here we go:

By the way: from a reader, a comment from yesterday --

Regarding John Fogerty. Saw an interview with him by Dan Rather in which he was asked “how many times have you played Proud Mary?” After thinking about, Fogerty responded “not enough”.

First things first:

I've been watching sports talk television in the morning (0700 - 1200) almost exclusively for the past six months. 
It's been mostly about Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. It's amazing how "they've" missed the big story. How Jerry Jones played the media was priceless. He took lessons from Elon Musk. It's interesting that someone like me who understands the business of sports finally figured it out. For now, all I will say: Jerry Jones was brilliant. One wonders if Dak was playing along.

Don't fight the ECB. So, why are Dow futures surging after a record-setting day yesterday? Here and here.

Jobless numbers: if anyone cared, there would be more of an uproar of the loss of jobs connected with killing the Keystone XL. That's why the jobless report no longer matters. In fact, did it ever matter? Even the unions no longer care.

This seems like a problem. Link here. But then, it's been a problem for many years. 

LA ports. The Port of Long Beach posts busiest February on record amid ongoing import rush. Link here.

  • TEUs: increased over 43%, year/year -- repeat, a 43% increase year-over-year
  • loaded inbound containers grew by over 50% year over year
  • did anyone say we're going to come out of the pandemic faster than anyone expected?
  • note: although activity typically slows in February as East Asian factories close for up to two weeks to celebrate the Lunar New Year, China largely worked through the holiday to fill back orders and meet the increasing demands of consumers ordering items online;

Sad. Not sad. Every hotel was sold out in Midland last night. Link here.

Someone finally gets it. Rig counts don't matter. How long have I been saying this? Finally, someone gets it. This will be re-posted as a stand-alone post. Perhaps the only thing that needs to be read this week. Maybe this month. Stay tuned. I will post the link later. Don't worry I won't forget. It's a great article. The writer made only one mistake of any real substance. Archived.

And finally: Sonic allows customers to tip carhops with updated app at 1,000 locations. One of those locations is located across the street from our apartment complex. I go to Sonic once every five years. From a reader:

I can take or leave the rest of their menu.  They feature "Tot-chos", which are nachos made with tater tots instead of corn chips.  I know people who are absolutely addicted to them.  Tater tots have never been my thing, but they have a very loyal following.

The fresh limeade, however, calls my name every couple weeks during the summer and occasionally the rest of the year.  I order a very large drink and am always surprised that I finish the entire thing.  They're running a special now,and drinks are half price if you order them online.  They also do cherry limeade if someone likes a sweeter beverage, but I like mine tart enough to rattle my teeth just a little.

So, I don't order the largest size, I order the penultimate. LOL.
Rigs: in the Bakken -- at 12 - 15 for the past year or so. Prediction: by the end of CY21, there is a 90% chance there will be 21 active rigs in the Bakken, and a 50% chance that there will be 30 or more. I generally don't make predictions but when I do, they are usually wrong. 

Seeing the cup as half empty: me, I see the cup as half full, but Noah obviously doesn't. From Reuters, this opening from Noah:
Crude oil in storage at major land and sea hubs rose last week as a build-up in China and the US Gulf Coast reflected oil markets' bumpy road to recovery. This has nothing to do with a "bumpy road" to recovery. 
This is just how things are. Not only is the recovery not "bumpy," it's moving along a lot faster than anyone predicted six months ago. Previously posted.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$65.40
3/11/202103/11/202003/11/201903/11/201803/11/2017
Active Rigs1556655945

No wells coming off confidential list today.

RBN Energy: hydrogen slides "on deck" and ready to play. Archived.

In the world of public equities, nothing speaks relevance like a PowerPoint slide in the earnings call and conference decks that companies put together for analysts and investors. If a topic’s not important, then it probably didn’t “make the deck” — or even the appendix, for that matter. As consultants, we at RBN are familiar with this concept and we’ve been watching for some time to see just how long it would take hydrogen, one of our favorite recent subjects, to make its way into the slide-deck line-ups at some of the largest energy companies. Well, that time has arrived, with two energy stalwarts prominently featuring 2021’s darling subject over the last few days. However, with a new topic comes a need to put things in context. No problem, we are here to help on that. Today, we continue our series on H2 with a look at some recent hydrogen-focused slides from ExxonMobil and Enterprise Products Partners.

Two of my favorite companies: XOM and EPD -- both mentioned above. How good can it get!

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Clearing Out The In-Box -- Late Night Notes -- March 10, 2021

Futures:

  • after hitting another all-time high, against significant headwinds (bond yields), futures suggest another interesting day tomorrow

Apple: sell-off is a golden buying opportunity. Benzinga.

  • outperform rating, target: $175
  • bull case price target: $225
  • with a trillion-dollar-valuaton in sight for Cupertino, the recent sell-off in share creates a golden buying opportunity

Buffett:

Buffett:

  • BNSF? Best buy ever? How Berkshire Hathaway makes money, Investopedia; 
  • BNSF Railway Berkshire's freight rail transportation business operates one of the largest systems in North America. BNSF Railway ships coal as well as consumer, industrial, and agricultural products.
  • BNSF Railway's revenue fell 11.3% in 2020 to $20.9 billion as EBT fell 6.3% to $6.8 billion. Rail transport comprised only 9% of Berkshire's total revenue, but it generated over 25% of total EBT.

Something to think about:

  • in the big scheme of things, BNSF and Union Pacific are two peas in a pod, as they say
  • Berkshire Hathaway's EBITDA for the three months ended in December, 2020, was $49,364 million; its EBITDA for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ended in December, 2020, was $70,372 million
    • 25% of $70 billion is $17.5 billion
  • Union Pacific EBITDA for the quarter ending December 31, 2020 was $2.563B, a 3.61% decline year-over-year. Union Pacific EBITDA for the twelve months ending December 31, 2020, was $10.044B, a 6.74% decline year-over-year.