Friday, November 20, 2020

Oil Giant Aramco's Strong Stock Is A Mirage -- The WSJ -- November 20, 2020

There is no new news here. But it supports one of the main themes of this blog for almost a decade. That's why it gets a stand-alone post. Along with the fact that the story is in The WSJ. "Heard On The Street" is always one of my favorite columns in The WSJ. 

Headline: oil giant Aramco's strong stock is a mirage. This week's bond sale shows that global investors remain less enthusiastic about the stock than patriotic local shareholders.

Patriotic.

Or coerced.

Notes From All Over -- November 20, 2020

Reality sucks: stocks not soaring despite likelihood that at least two vaccines will soon be approved for emergency use. See reader's poll at sidebar at the right. Half of readers responding suggest we won't see universal access to vaccine before March of next year (2021) -- four months from now.

Home sales: 14-year high in October, 2020. Said to be due to low interest rates, desire for pricier houses. No: desire to get out of NYC and San Francisco. 



Schools closed in NYC: parents "scurrying" for backup. I don't know what's going on in NYC but I can say with "authority" that some school districts in north Texas were well prepared going into the possibility of a second wave. It's really quite remarkable. Their program keeps improving and it's scalable, here in GCISD. If it's accurate that the closure of NY schools left parents in a bind it suggests the school districts let the students down.

Free internet: schools hand out free iPads for remote learners (and even for students in the classroom). The school districts (i.e., the taxpayers) also need to ensure that every student issued an iPad has home access to the internet. Technology is such that "free" internet could be throttled for speed necessary for schoolwork but not for gaming; available only during school hours. Homework? No one wants homework anyway.

NYC: will the mayor finally kill off Macy's? From The WSJ. Tea leaves: Macy's will likely join Sears, K-Mart, JC Penney, others. We will need new sponsor for annual parade.

Does anyone even read Consumer Reports any more? Ranking reliability of cars. 

Weather: we've had an incredibly nice autumn. Sophia and I have really enjoyed biking in the local park the last two days. An aside: this park was closed due to Covid last spring. Now, with the second wave much worse than the first here in north Texas, the park is wide open, and full of folks. The park has increased "services," including working drinking fountains which had been turned off during the first wave last March.

Mild November weather stings natural-gas prices. From The WSJ. Forecasts signal warmer temperatures in many states over the next two weeks; bearish development for natural gas. 

Austria: progressive paid-leave and child-care policies failed to close the gender pay gap -- close reading of the article suggests the policies made the gender pay gap wider. But it felt good. From MarcketWatch. My hunch: the "test" needs to be continued for at least another decade or so. 

WSJ: one has to remember the target audience for The WSJ -- millionaires and billionaires. From the newspaper yesterday: second homes are driving the US's Covid-19 housing boom. Demand for vacation properties is growing twice as fast as demand for primary homes, as affluent Americans look for more space to ride out the pandemic. "Affluent" = millionaires with at least a million in disposable cash. Again, I would need to see that statistics. As said earlier, the 2020 housing boom is being driven by folks fleeing NYC and San Francisco, not buying second homes in Wyoming. 

NFL last night. Another point after touchdown missed by team competing for #1 in its conference. Are you kidding me? Fight on field probably resulted in the win after the penalty assessed. Another penalty and another two points. These are among the top teams in the NFL?

Pop quiz. See if you can spot the error in this table ranking turkey producers. From WorldAtlas.


More recent stats almost everywhere, including this site.

Good, Bad, Or Indifferent -- North Dakota Pushes On -- November 20, 2020

From social media yesterday, from The Williston Herald:

Right now, it looks like the Dakotas, Florida, and Texas are pushing on. California and New York are pulling back.  

From The WSJ this morning: is it allergies or Covid? 

Fever, cough and shortness of breath are also regularly discussed for a reason, as is diarrhea, he said. But that doesn’t mean that the rest can be ruled out. “The reality is that in the ER, in a clinic, we cannot tell them apart, and that’s why you have to test people.”

At this point, he added, coronavirus case numbers in the U.S. are so high that it’s reasonable to consider Covid as likely an explanation for most symptoms as anything else. 

And reimbursements for a Covid-19 diagnosis are huge compared to reimbursements for an allergy. A health insurance policy is unlikely to cover an emergency room visit for allergies; it will cover an emergency room visit for Covid-19. 

Whiting Reports One Well Today -- November 20, 2020

Active rigs:

$41.65
11/20/202011/20/201911/20/201811/20/201711/20/2016
Active Rigs1555625639

One well coming off the confidential list today -- Friday, November 20, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year

  • 35711, drl/A, Whiting, Renbarger 24-34-1H, Grinnell, t--; cum 38K 34 days; fracked, 3/27/20 - 4/7/20; 5.98 million gallons of water; 87% water by mass;

RBN Energy: proposed rail line could transport oil sands crude to Alaska and beyond.

For most of the past few years, crude oil producers in Alberta have dealt with pipeline constraints that often forced them to sell their crude at steep discounts. While the constraints eased somewhat earlier this year as producers reduced their output due to cratering oil demand and oil prices, production more recently has been rebounding, resulting in the return of takeaway concerns. The big hope is that long-planned pipeline projects like the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) and Keystone XL will finally be built and commissioned, but they still face legal and regulatory hurdles before being completed. Lately, a different option has gained momentum focusing on a proposed rail line linking Alaska to the immense oil sands region of northern Alberta, potentially creating another corridor for the export of oil sands crude. Today, we describe recent developments in a bold plan to build a rail line from Alberta, across northern Canada, and into Alaska.

Living in Alaska or northern Canada may offer the advantage of being closer to Santa Claus, but it has the clear disadvantage of being remote and isolated. Rugged terrain and bitter cold conditions for a good portion of the year make the transportation of goods even more challenging in such regions (unless you have flying reindeer and a sleigh). For these reasons, an intercontinental railway connecting Canada to Alaska has been kicked around since the late 1960s as a means to foster economic development by transporting the mineral and energy resources Western Canada and the north have to offer.

Huge Jump In Production; Short Lateral -- EOG -- Clarks Creek Well -- November 20, 2020

This well was shut in from 1/19 to 9/19 due to fracking of adjacent well by an operator other than EOG! These were three Enerplus wells on the Lizard pad to the east, and a fair distance away from this EOG well. Enerplus' Crocodile well, completed 1/19, was another huge well.

The well (note the spacing):

  • 20307, 1,328, EOG, Clarks Creek 103-17H, Antelope, a Sanish Pool well; 320-acre spacing; t11/11; cum 186K 9/20; jump in production, 3/17; remains off line 5/19; back on line 9/19; but then off line 1/20; back on line 7/20; huge jump in production, 7/20; recent production; new production exceeds initial production almost ten years ago;:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH9-202030102741002694601500614190413
SANISH8-202031103391105799681182893872019
SANISH7-202014477635317576707456971192
SANISH6-20200000000
SANISH5-20200000000
SANISH4-202000430000
SANISH3-2020114015612200
SANISH2-2020155245342014142170
SANISH1-20200000000
SANISH12-201924111310976321508593598
SANISH11-2019301770179799024221545469
SANISH10-201931226622641542368515041761
SANISH9-20193016541648173523277871132
SANISH8-201946040571230
SANISH7-20190000000
SANISH6-20190000000
SANISH5-20190000000
SANISH4-20190000000
SANISH3-20190000000
SANISH2-20190000000
SANISH1-2019236656113201331344674
SANISH12-2018319169533591920894604
SANISH11-2018309429624211794778608

 Note: original production:

SANISH6-201230387739991256500304855
SANISH5-20123048354489154010644010501
SANISH4-20122975067429247910477010337
SANISH3-20121311631454221147001405
SANISH2-201229549158131359510704962
SANISH1-201230749971792006716607018
SANISH12-201129987199632842939809255
SANISH11-201114846175622810733607266