Saturday, October 31, 2020

Annual Permits In North Dakota Since 2011; On Pace For Lowest Year Ever -- October 31, 2020

 Permits:

  • 2020, October 31: 645 permits; at this pace: day 305 in a leap year (366 days): 774 permits
  • 2019, projected for the year (as of June 21, 2019) --- 1,523; in fact, actual: 1,397
  • 2018: 1,466
  • 2017: 1,189
  • 2016: 818
  • 2015: 2,055
  • 2014: 3,012
  • 2013: 2,671
  • 2012: 2,522
  • 2011:1,916 

2020: 74 permits in October;

  • at that pace: 2.3870977 permits per day
  • 2.3870977 x 366 = 873 which would be slightly better than the 818 in 2016

Stories Being Followed -- October 31, 2020

So that I don't forget, these are the stories or data points I'm most interested in now:

  • who owns the Permian? The majors or the independents?
  • COP -- there appears to be a huge shift in strategy
    • what next in the Bakken? 
    • monster wells in the Bakken
  • the dashboards: Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian
  • the Mideast: in deep doo-doo
  • Apple
  • Turkey -- separate from the Mideast
    • like Fitzgerald said: "within and without"
  • investing: the strange case for/of dividends
  • cooking for one: heat is heat
  • Alaska: killing the golden goose; we will know this week
  • ILI surveillance

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Another Apple

I won't be able to find it but I once posted that the drummer is the most important individual in a rock band. First among equals.

Apple -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 31, 2020

I will come back to this later today. This is a big story. A lot of data points. 

I have to re-test for Covid-19. I wasn't sure I was able to smell my Bloody Mary earlier this morning, but now I'm smelling bacon cooking in the kitchen.

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From 1990

Happy Halloween -- North Dakota Chinese Flu Update -- The Bismarck Tribune -- October 31, 2020

Updates

Later, 3:18 p.m. CDT: a reader was kind enough to send me the link ... see first comment at this post --

Medora... population 112 and potentially about to be decimated, according to this article!

https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/mask-resistant-north-dakota-town-battles-pandemic-spike. 

It was such a ridiculous story I had to have at least two readers interested in it before I would post it. LOL.  Fortunately, a second reader was kind enough to oblige. LOL. I just love this blog -- LOL. I never know what I'm going to find on it. This made my day.

Original Post

I didn't post the link, and I won't unless a reader sends to me again, but yesterday, the national media posted a story on the devastating effect Covid-19 is having on Medora, ND. I can't make this stuff up. Don't they close down the city nine months out of the year?

This, too, will pass -- when we reach herd immunity ...

Oh, my goodness, I bet they weren't wearing masks, 

The lede:

The question everyone is asking: is it safe to go swimming?

Link to the Bismarck Tribune. 

The good news: the WHO anticipates zero "seasonal flu" cases this year. That disease appears to have been eradicated. Just like that. 

Tracking "influenza-like-illnesses" in the USA today -- traditionally tracked by the CDC and reported weekly in MMWR will be very, very interesting this year. 

"Influenza-like-illnesses" (ILI) will include both Chinese flu and "seasonal flu" this year. Then, look at this:

Why is the CDC recommending the flu vaccine -- it's only 45% effective, at best -- and "the mask" seems to be the easier, better alternative based on what is being reported by mainstream media and Joe Biden. Just saying.  By they way, speaking of Joe Biden, I haven't seen him getting his "seasonal flu" shot, but I see him every day, with Jill, wearing his mask.

Quick: what virus is being targeted this year for "seasonal flu"? Yes, that's what I thought. 

This will be re-posted later.

Off the net for awhile.

I'm going to go get tested. I feel great but one can't be too careful these days. You know, had this been last year, Trevor Lawrence would have played right through this with his mild symptoms. And no one would have even noticed.

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I'm Back

More graphics.

Is the world going nuts? Is it just me, or ... can you imagine --- using an analogy --- drilling 25,000 oil wells and only ten of them actually produce oil ....

Now, back to that question I asked earlier:

Heaven forbid you get the Yamagata strain. That vaccine won't do you any good. The good news? You are unlikely to get the Colorado strain. Okay to go skiing again. 

Notes From All Over -- The Mideast Edition -- Saturday Morning -- October 31, 2020

Striking graphs this morning. Where do we begin? 

Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves: drop again. I believe this converts to about $453 billion.

From al Khaleej Today:

US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia: huge plunge, not since the 1980s have we seen numbers this low. 

From the "milliondollarway" archives:

This might be good time to re-read this interesting story in Foreign Policy, May 5, 2020; still not behind a paywall; the writer of that article: Jason Bordoff, a former senior director on the staff of the US National Security Council and special assistant to President Barack Obama ... I first linked this article in September, 2020. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

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Most Under-Reported International Story: Turkey

Turkish lira hits yet another record low, pushing as 8 lira to the dollar -- CNBC;

  • The lira’s value has fallen by nearly 20% year-to-date and halved since the end of 2017. 
  • At the start of 2018, a dollar bought just 3.77 lira; now analysts predict that figure will hit 8.5 or even 9. 
  • Erdogan has previously defended his economic record and in September called interest rates the “tools of his enemies.” 
  • Over the summer he downplayed the lira’s slide, calling it “temporary.” 
  •  Erdogan on Monday urged Turks to boycott French goods after the country projected satirical cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad on government buildings in Paris to protest a recent terrorist attack.

Earlier in October, again CNBC: the Turkish lira is getting smoked; will crash to new lows;

  • Turkey’s embattled currency hit another record low on Thursday, touching 7.95 to the dollar as it barrels toward an unprecedented 8 lira to the greenback.
  • Economic analysts have expressed exasperation for the past several weeks at the policy decisions coming from Ankara, arguing that the currency’s troubles are self-inflicted.   
  • For perspective, a dollar bought just 3.77 lira at the start of 2018. Now analysts predict that figure will hit 8.5. 

As if that weren't bad enough, Saudi is now calling for boycott of "everything Turkish." Not yet official policy but one would think political statements coming out of Saudi Arabia are tightly controlled, sanctioned.  

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The Only Thing Red, Mr Putin, Is Your Ruble

Earlier this month, Vladimir Putin, when asked about the Bakken, simply stated that the color of water in North Dakota was the color of the red wine in the glass he was holding. I have no idea what he meant by that. Lost in translation. 

On the other hand, not lost in translation: the Russian ruble had a painful week, ended the week in the red. I doubt the ruble felt anything at all. Perhaps Russian investors and bankers felt something, but I doubt the ruble actually felt anything. 

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The US Has Its Mayo Clinic, The Mideast Has Hadassah

Link here. The article is there; it may be a bit hard to find initially with the large ad asking for donations, etc., but if you actually stick it out and get to the article, it's very interesting. My hunch: it's only news to those living outside the Mideast. 

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Geo-Politics

Let's assume Joe Biden wins the presidency. 

I think I read recently that President Trump is the only American president, or maybe the only American president in modern times, that has not gotten the US into another war. 

It sounds accurate to me. 

If accurate, one has to ask why?

Generally, the US gets into a war in reaction to something else. 

To not get into a new war, one might suggest there has been no conflict overseas that grew big enough for attention by the US. 

But think about it. Not one major military operation by this president. No wonder his "past" generals did not support him. [Yes, I saw the political commercials on television. No matter how hard I try to avoid these things they invariably show up, generally during NFL football games.]

But I digress.

One has to ask why there have been no conflicts that grew big enough for attention by the US. Why didn't China and Taiwan become a bigger story? What happened to North Korea? What happened to Syria and Iran? What happened to Yemen? Israel, Palestine?

One answer: the US president is predictably unpredictable. Similar to Ronald Reagan. 

Now, let's assume Joe Biden wins the presidency.

Unlike President Trump, Joe Biden:

  • has no overarching geo-political compass, unless it's money;
  • will be very, very slow to react to developing situations around the world;
  • will become entirely predictable, at least in the eyes of our adversaries;

After surfing through the international news today and imagining Joe Biden as president, the only question I have: will the first military conflict involving a major US response occur in late 2021, or 2022?

The Mideast is a huge powder keg and I think the regimes are waiting for the outcome of the US presidential election before taking their next step. 

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Let Me Guess

But we end on this note. Something tells me the world won't miss him.

Prince Azim of Brunei dead at age 38. Cause of death unknown. 

Only details we know:

  • billionaire
  • playboy
  • lived at the family's London mansion in Kensington Palace Gardens

My hunch: Jeffrey Epstein was not directly involved.