Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Notes From All Over -- Late Evening -- October 27, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

EPD: scheduled to report tomorrow, October 28, 2020:

  • EPS: forecast -- 48 cents
  • revenue: foreast: $7.13 billion

MSFT: earnings easily top expectations but forecast for Xbox's debut quarter dings stock;

  • earnings beat across all three segments
  • guidance comes in short of expectations for revenue as new video game consoles arrive
  • EPS: $1.82/share; $13.9 billion; up from $1.38 a year ago;
  • revenue reached $37.2 billion, up from $33.06 billion a year ago
  • forecast: $154 and $35.76 billion

AMD earnings here:

  • adjusted EPS: 41 cents vs forecast of 35 cents;
  • revenue exceeded analyst expectations;
  • record 3Q20 revenue driven by strong demand for PC, gaming, and data center products; the latter drove the Xilinx acquisition;

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Global Warming Hits Minnesota

Overnight, October 26  - 27, 2020, from a reader:


These are temperatures one expects to see in December in North Dakota, not in October -- before Halloween -- in southern Minnesota.

This past August: it was forecast that the grand solar minimum for 2020 would lead to terrestrial cooling. Link here. 

Newly discovered solar activity proxy-magnetic field [reveals] that the Sun has entered into the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature.

Sun is the main source of energy for all planets of the solar system. This energy is delivered to Earth in a form of solar radiation in different wavelengths, called total solar irradiance. Variations of solar irradiance lead to heating of upper planetary atmosphere and complex processes of solar energy transport toward a planetary surface.

The signs of solar activity are seen in cyclic 11-year variations of a number of sunspots on the solar surface using averaged monthly sunspot numbers as a proxy of solar activity for the past 150 years. Solar cycles were described by the action of solar dynamo mechanism in the solar interior generating magnetic ropes at the bottom of solar convective zone.

These magnetic ropes travel through the solar interior appearing on the solar surface, or photosphere, as sunspots indicating the footpoints where these magnetic ropes are embedded into the photosphere.

Magnetic field of sunspots forms toroidal field while solar background magnetic field forms poloidal field. Solar dynamo cyclically converts poloidal field into toroidal one reaching its maximum at a solar cycle maximum and then the toroidal field back to the poloidal one toward a solar minimum. It is evident that for the same leading polarity of the magnetic field in sunspots in the same hemisphere the solar cycle length should be extended to 22 years.

3Q20

Note: this is, hands down, one of the most boring things I to do each quarter. I doubt anyone really looks at it but the day I quit doing this will be the day I miss posting something important. The word "important" is used loosely. Very loosely.

This is linked at the top of the sidebar at the right during earnings season. After earnings -- pretty much after Whiting and Apple posts their earning, this post will move back into obscurity.



Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Earnings -- 3Q20

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is. 


EOG: missed / beat depending on how measured; reported; link here. In a Biden presidency, EOG looks in better position than  many of its competitors;

SRE: preview November 4, 2020; will report November 5, 2020); conference call transcript here:

  • consensus EPS: $1.52 (+1.3% y/y). Actual: $1.21 (misses by 31 cents -- huge)
  • consensus revenue: $2.62 billion (-5.1% y/y). Actual: $2.64 -- interesting.

MDU: preview (November 3, 2020; will report November 4, 2020):

  • consensus EPS: 63 cents vs 47 cents last year; day later: huge beat: 75 cents
  • consensus revenue: $1.6 billion (+2.3% y/y); day later; misses by $10 million
  • increases guidance to range of $1.80 to $1.90 vs guidance of $1.65 to$1.85;

COP: $500 million loss; vs $3.1 billion profit one year earlier.

AAPL; investors not happy but Apple actually exceeded expectations. Barely.

Ford: Link here.

Ford reported net income in the third quarter of $2.4 billion, or 60 cents a share, compared with $400 million, or 11 cents a share, a year earlier.

And, actually, even better than that:

Excluding items, Ford's profit was $3.6 billion, or 65 cents a share, topping the 19 cents analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected.
Analysts get much of their information from guidance provided by the CEO. How was this missed? 60-plus cents reported vs expectations of 20 cents.


Boeing, link here:

  • surprise beat
  • sales, EPS, cash burn were stronger than expected
  • looking to fire another 7,000 workers while another 4,000 to be lost through attrition
  • revenue: $14.14 billion, down almost 30% y/y but beating estimates of $13.84 billion
  • loss per share: $1.39 vs $1.45 y/y; beating estimate of a loss of $2.08/share

EPD reports in-line.

  • EPS: 48 cents vs 48 cents forecast
  • net income: $1.084 billion vs 1.045 one year ago
  • adjusted EBITDA: $2.06 vs $2.023 one year ago
  • 3Q20 cash distribution 0.6% increase compared to year ago
  • distributable cash flow provided 1.7 time coverage of the distribution
  • pays 10.31%

MSFT: earnings easily top expectations but forecast for Xbox's debut quarter dings stock;

  • earnings beat across all three segments
  • guidance comes in short of expectations for revenue as new video game consoles arrive
  • EPS: $1.82/share; $13.9 billion; up from $1.38 a year ago;
  • revenue reached $37.2 billion, up from $33.06 billion a year ago
  • forecast: $154 and $35.76 billion

AMD earnings here:

  • adjusted EPS: 41 cents vs forecast of 35 cents;
  • revenue exceeded analyst expectations;
  • record 3Q20 revenue driven by strong demand for PC, gaming, and data center products; the latter drove the Xilinx acquisition;

AMD: buys XLNX for $35 billion; AMD earnings here; 

Baker Hughes:

  • revenue of $5.0 billion for the quarter; up sequentially 7%; down 14% y/y
  • adjusted operating loss of $234 million was favorable sequentially and down 45% y/y
  • adjusted EPS was 4 cents
  • free cash flow for the quarter was $52 million

OKE: link here. 

UNP: investors not happy; after earnings released, UNP drops from $204 to $184 or thereabouts; huge rout; link here; SeekingAlpha here;

  • EPS: $2.01 vs $2.03; a surprise of -0.99%
  • revenue: $4.92 billion vs $5.04 billion
  • this was the killer: high margin coal and automobile shipping way down, and it won't get better;

CAT, link here: sales and revenues declined 23% y/y to $9 billion;

  • net profit: $668 million, or $1.22/share
  • compared to $1.4 billion, $2.66 one year earlier;

ATT, link here: overall a good report;

  • revenue: $42.3 billion vs $44.6 billion a year earlier;
  • operating income: $6.1 billion vs $7.9 billion a year ago;


Three Huge MRO Wells With Interesting Completion Strategies -- October 27, 2020

Three MRO producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37282, drl/A, MRO, Dragswolf USA 34-10TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 42K 8/20; 33-053-09323; FracFocus with no frack data;
  • 37285, drl/A, MRO, Jacobson USA 44-10H, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum --; 33-053-09326; fracked 7/24/20 - 8/10/20; 6.1 million gallons of water; 58.7% water by mass;
  • 37286, drl/A, MRO, Strand USA 44-10TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum --; 33-053-09327; fracked 7/24/20 - 8/9/20; 7.0 million gallons; 70.2% water by mass;
Note the small fracks (where frack data is provided), but more interestingly, note the small amount of water by percentage used in the frack. We saw this with Enerplus wells the other day, but this is even more extreme: in one case, only 58.7% by mass, and in the other case, 70.2% water by mass; completion strategies are tracked here;

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Early Production For DUCs Reported Above

37286, 14,915 bbls over 7 days extrapolates to 63,921 bbls over 30 days;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20207149151456215149103959330203

37282, 41,992 bbls over 12 days extrapolates to 104,980 bbls over 30 days:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20201241992409983452352701407069505

MRO Reports Three Huge Wells -- Interesting Frack Data Noted -- October 27, 2020

OPEC basket, drops below $40. 

Active rigs:

$38.94
10/27/202010/27/201910/27/201810/27/201710/27/2016
Active Rigs1457675335

Four new permits, #37926 - #37929, inclusive:

  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Pershing (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
  • BR has permits for a 4-well Boxer/Parris pad in Lot 2, section 6-149-96; all 245' FNL and from 2536' FEL to 2378' FWL

Two permits renewed:

  • Enerplus: one Hall permit, McKenzie County;
  • EOG: one Hawkeye permit, McKenzie County:

Three MRO producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed, these wells will now be tracked here:

  • 37282, drl/A, MRO, Dragswolf USA 34-10TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 42K 8/20; 33-053-09323; FracFocus with no frack data; still no frack data, January 2, 2021;
  • 37285, drl/A, MRO, Jacobson USA 44-10H, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum --; 33-053-09326; fracked 7/24/20 - 8/10/20; 6.1 million gallons of water; 58.7% water by mass; with 25.9% produced water by mass;
  • 37286, drl/A, MRO, Strand USA 44-10TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum --; 33-053-09327; fracked 7/24/20 - 8/9/20; 7.0 million gallons; 70.2% water by mass;
Note the small fracks (where frack data is provided), but more interestingly, note the small amount of water by percentage used in the frack. We saw this with Enerplus wells the other day, but this is even more extreme: in one case, only 58.7% by mass, and in the other case, 70.2% water by mass; completion strategies are tracked here;

***************************************
Early Production For DUCs Reported Above

37286, 14,915 bbls over 7 days extrapolates to 63,921 bbls over 30 days;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20207149151456215149103959330203

37282, 41,992 bbls over 12 days extrapolates to 104,980 bbls over 30 days:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20201241992409983452352701407069505

The Day Just Keeps Getting Better And Better -- OKE Reports -- Superb -- October 27, 2020

3Q20 earnings. Link here. 

  • operating income: 14% increase year-over-year
  • but look at this: 55% increase in operating income over previous quarter (2Q20)
  • go to the link to see the incredible earnings report

OKE up 5% after-hours.

Pay 12%. Link here if you don't believe me.

Nice chart action after hours. Again, paying over 12%.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

From the September, 2020, investor presentation (sent to me by a reader about a month ago):