Monday, December 16, 2019

Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- December 16, 2019

Stock to watch today: Boeing. Not because it's "Boeing," but because the effect it will on the Dow. Boeing is down 3% today; down over $10. And yet the Dow is currently almost up 200 points, 9:50 a.m. CT, Deember 16, 2019. How much does Boeing affect the Dow?
To calculate the “industrial average,” Dow Jones takes the share price of these companies, adds them up, and then divides them by a number called the Dow Divisor. This number—which changes over time—is designed to be easily adjusted to factor any major structural changes to the 30 listed companies. At the moment, it’s 0.14748071991788.Boeing has an outsized influence on the Dow, with a percentage weighting of over 11%.
I can't do the math, but my hunch is that the Dow would be up nearly 300 points if Boeing were up like the rest.
By the way, the Boeing story may be the story of 2020. They say the flapping of a butterfly's wings in Africa sets off a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico (chaos theory); if so, one can imagine the Boeing story resulting in a Biden win. Just saying. Start connecting the dots.

WTI: holds above $60.

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Featured Blogs At The Sidebar At The Right

Focus on fracking:
  • November, 2019, oil shortage at 1.17 million bopd;
  • January, 2020, natural gas hits another all-time low;
  • best observation, captured by no one except this site -- 
    • to account for that disparity between the apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA inserted a (+399,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet to make the reported data for the daily supply of oil and the consumption of it balance out, essentially a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as "unaccounted for crude oil", thus suggesting an error or errors of that magnitude in the oil supply & demand figures we just transcribed
Intellectual froglegs: three years of fake news -- the official list.

Bjorn Lomborg: Paris climate accord promises will reduce global temperature by 0.05° in 2100;

St Greta of Thunburg: says the train was crowded; press catches her railing back in first class.

By the way, internal polling suggests that TheMillionDollarWay has the best list of "featured blogs" of any Bakken blog.


Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- December 16, 2019

This is one of those "rabbit holes" absolutely not worth exploring unless ... unlesss ... unless ...

A reader was curious about the CEO of ONEOK, and noted: he he lives in Sapulpa, OK.  It's a town of 20,000 on old Route 66.  Railroad, oil/gas, and shuttered brick, glass manufacturing. The real interesting piece of the story is the "Route 66" piece, bu the reader got a real kick out of this:
Newspaper controversy: The Sapulpa Daily Herald gained national media attention in early November 2008 for not reporting the election of Barack Obama as president, reporting only that John McCain had won among the voters of Creek County (county seat, Sapulpa). 
Critics charged that the omission related to racism, as Obama's victory as the first African American elected president was an historic event. The newspaper maintains that it only covers local news events. The newspaper had covered every single presidential victory prior to the Obama victory. 
So what if they had covered every single presidential victory prior to Obama's? Perhaps new ownership; perhaps new editorial policy? Who knows? What does it matter? What a hoot!

The reader wonders if the owner of the The Sapulpa Daily Herald would like to buy the Dunn County Herald? These are exactly the newspapers Warren Buffett likes to buy.

Back to the story. The newspaper is owned by "the Sumner family."
The newspaper's publisher explained "We run a newspaper, not a memory book service. We covered the local commissioner's race. We thought that was more important." 
Now, how did the city dog catcher race turn out?

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US Becomes Net Petroleum Exporter

From the Oilman Magazine. Previously posted but wanted to give Oilman Magazine some exposure.

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Question of the Day

When to start taking profits?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

If you have run out of things to do, google wall of worry.
 

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- Cleaning Out The In-Box -- December 16, 2019

First things first: ascending tricolons. How Boris Johnson cracked the code. Great, great article by Sumantra Maitra over at The Federalist.  How to speak like Churchill:



Word of the day: chiasmus.

From a reader:
Boris says "chiasmus"
Trump says "Pocahontas"
Two wildly coiffed leaders
Stirring up a big fuss
Phony money, says a reader. I don't understand it enough to comment. I will study it, maybe comment on it later. Regardless, traders don't seem to care. Over at zerohedge. But seeing that it's on zerohedge suggests a bit of hyperbole.


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Save Our Ship

Boeing with an SOS; weighs suspending the 737 MAX. WSJ. 

Europe with an SOS: EU needs NASA's help getting Mars mission off the ground. 

McDermott with an SOS: receives a delisting warming.

OPEC with an SOS: price spike will be short-lived.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

SOS, ABBA

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Recession Fears! Fears, Yes. Recession, Probably Not.

Recession is just around the corner:
Most ridiculous business story in the past week: Robert Pozen, MarketWatch, says this "tax break" is the tax break that "America's 1%" will cling to.  It's the "step-up" tax break for heirs to an estate. This "tax break" benefits everyone, not just the 1%. What a doofus. The good news: the biggest benefactors: the US senators and congress-people. They will never change the law.

Amazon threat: Amazon sees surge in shipments. Threatens FedEx, UPS. If the latter two are threatened, USPS is really threatened. We went to post office over weekend to mail packages. Dead. Nothing going on. First e-mail kills the US post office; now Amazon killing the others. So why would Amazon threaten FedEx, UPS, USPS? Won't folks use all four shippers? Nope. Amazon undercutting shipping costs so much FedEx will be left with priority flats sent by business. UPS? Same thing. In addition, their old, clunky, huge "brown trucks" must be hard on fuel; look antiquated compared to new, snazzy, snappy Amazon vans.

Bernie's world: Venezuela's refugee crisis will surpass that of Syria; said to be "largest in history." Probably hyperbole. There have been some huge diasporas in the past. Venezuela should be the richest country (per capita) in the world. The refugee crisis that will exceed Venezuela's? Mexico, when it implodes. The southern surge will be measured in Betos. Link: https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2019/12/13/study-venezuelas-refugee-crisis-to-surpass-syria-largest-in-modern-history/?fbclid=IwAR1L644MAy4A-ZPdeeLJUxwBz0sXvbCqCxbi1w6DJulK78v9TEFhr5DRXIw.

Apple: Tim Cook's dinner with the president paid off. Chinese tariffs could have cost Apple $150/iPhone this holiday season. 

Boeing Slumping; Nothing About The Bakken -- December 16, 2019

$60-WTI in futures.

Equity markets: the one to watch today -- Boeing --
.... tea leaves suggest it is close to scrapping the 737 MAX; if so, this is a big, big deal; will reverberate throughout the manufacturing industry just as the 2020 campaign gets under way; perhaps worst news that the president could get
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Let's see how the equity markets are doing.

Futures, 7:45 a.m. CT, Monday, December 16, 2019, after a week of more equity records:
  • Dow: up about 60 points
  • OXY: up about 21 cents; back under $38
  • COP: up about 11 cents, $62.70
  • CVX: up 54 cents; $118.50
  • AAPL: up another $2.04, now trading at over $277 before the market opens; by the end of the day, perhaps some profit-taking; big story: the US-China "trade deal" averted huge costs for Apple;
  • BRK-B: riding AAPL's coattails, up $1.38; trading at $227
  • BA (Boeing): and there it is -- down almost $14; down almost 4%; -- trading below $330; if this is how BA trades today, "Fast Money" (CNBC) will be must-see; curious what Jim ramer will have to say;
  • TSLA: the flip side of Boeing; up over $4; trading at $362.55
  • PCAR: not trading yet 
  • UNP: not trading yet
  • EW: not trading yet

There It Is: $60-WTI; Nine Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- December 16, 2019

WTI: some suggest "backwardation" in the market is a bit overdone.

Another huge deal, link here:
International Flavors and Fragrances has reached a $26.2 billion agreement to buy DuPont’s nutrition unit. The latest deal in the fast-growing food ingredients business is the biggest ever for the New York-based company. IFF has fought off competition from Irish dairy producer Kerry Group in order to win this deal.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$60.1112/16/201912/16/201812/16/201712/16/201612/16/2015
Active Rigs5367534064


Nine wells coming off the confidential list -- 

Monday, December 16, 2019: 46 for the month; 251 for the quarter:
  • 35336, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-LE-155-94-1201H-1, Manitou, no production data,

Sunday, December 15, 2019: 45 for the month; 250 for the quarter:
  • 35335, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-155-94-1201H-4, Manitou, no production data,
  • 34096, conf,Resource Energy Can-Am, Trooper 0409-3TFH, Blooming Prairie, some production;
Saturday, December 14, 2019: 43 for the month; 248 for the quarter:
  • 35334, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland A-155-94-1201H-5, Manitou, no production data,
  • 35118, conf, Oasis, Kellogg Federal 5297 11-30 2BX, Banks, producing, but not particularly remarkable for a Banks well;
  • 34843, conf, Enerplus, Boreas 149-93-33C-28H, Mandaree, a nice well;
  • 34842, conf, Enerplus, Metis 149-93-33C-28H-TF, Mandaree, a nice well;
  • 34841, conf, Enerplus, Athena 149-93-33C-28H-TF, Mandaree, a nice well;
  • 34840, conf, Enerplus, Zeus 149-93-33D-28H, Mandaree, a nice well;
RBN Energy: private-equity-backed ARB Midstream's D-J Basin crude gathering systems.
Private equity is playing a critically important role in the build-out of crude oil gathering systems in the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin, where rising production volumes — and the expectation of further growth, especially in and around Weld County, CO — are spurring a number of major projects.
For proof, you need look no further than ARB Midstream, which, with backing from Ball Ventures’ BV Natural Resources, has developed the largest privately held crude transportation and storage network in the D-J through a combination of acquisitions and new construction. Producers have dedicated a quarter of a million acres to it. Today, we continue a series on crude-related infrastructure in the D-J with a look at ARB Midstream’s fast-expanding asset base there.