CLR Reports Another Monster Carus Wells In Cedar Coulee -- November 27, 2019

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The CLR Carus wells are tracked here.

CLR reports another monster Carus well today. Note: the well was tested 8/19; and has produced nearly 150,000 bbls by end of 9/19; note the large amount of proppant (very inexpensive these days) and the moderate number of stages):

• 35547, 2,041, CLR, Carus 7-28H, 42 stages; 12.7 million lbs; Cedar Coulee, t8/19; cum 138K 9/19; production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2019	30	37790	37861	21898	49517	44438	5079
BAKKEN	9-2019	28	30920	30911	17960	37838	35653	2185
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	50795	50796	33248	61648	59520	2128
BAKKEN	7-2019	13	16619	16281	11369	16958	16105	853
BAKKEN	6-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2019	5	2027	2027	4106	1341	0	1341

Weekly Petroleum Report -- November 27, 2019

Link here. US weekly petroleum report.

• US crude oil inventory increased by a mere 1.6 million bbls from the previous week
• US crude oil in storage now at 452.0 million bbls, about 3% above the 5-yeave average for this time of year; one year ago: 450.5 million bbls; not much re-balancing in this past year
• refiners are operating at 89.3% capacity, somewhat greater than the last few weeks, and trending up
• imports are not almost 22% less than the same four-week period last year
• there is no shortage of propane; it's not just where it needs to be; propane is about 6% above the five-year average

All things being equal, WTI should be "up." Let's see: WTI is down 49 cents, breaking below $48.

Re-balancing (note: to keep graphic manageable in size, much of the data is "hidden"):

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 43	September 18, 2019	1.1	417.1
Week 44	September 26, 2019	2.4	419.5
Week 45	October 2, 2019	3.1	422.6
Week 46	October 9, 2019	2.9	425.6
Week 47	October 17, 2019	9.3	434.9
Week 48	October 23, 2019	-1.7	433.2
Week 49	October 30, 2019	5.7	438.9
Week 50	November 6, 2019	7.9	446.8
Week 51	November 14, 2019	2.2	449.0
Week 52	November 20, 2019	1.4	450.4
Week 53	November 27, 2019	1.6	452.0

US Energy Independence -- November 27, 2019

This will be the top story of the week. Not so much the story itself, but "everybody" is now reporting this story.

• Can the US become energy independent by next year? -- Rystad Energy via oilprice.
• US on its way to energy independence -- Rigzone. 
• US oil rigs continue to fall -- oilprice. 

From a reader (see first comment): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYtpKBNTCB8.

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 27, 2019

Behind the scenes consolidation:

• Target / Toys R Us: link here.
• on-line photos: Snapfish, Shutterfly acquired by private equity firm; webpages look identical to Walgreens photo; ordering from Snapfish, pick up at Walgreens, others

Bumblebee: tuna wholesaler files for bankruptcy; to be bought on the cheap by Chinese company;

More on Lamar: link here.

Recession is just around the corner: article is ridiculous; comments are great. KAG.

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"Hell, yes, we'll take away your private insurance"

This is fascinating. On November 5, 2019, just a couple of weeks ago, I posted on the blog:

Politics:

• Beto dropped out after, "Hell, yes, we're gonna take your guns." 
• Did Pocahontas make the same mistake with, "Hell, yes, we're going to take away your private health insurance"?
• politics tracked here, FWIW, but it sure is fascinating

Now today:

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US Youth Soccer

Link here.

Our middle granddaughter was invited to be a guest player on one of the FC Dallas (Texas) teams.

This is a national team, national tournment.

For the 14U girls, there are 28 national teams invited to this two-part tournament.

The first half of the tournament is a four-day tournament in Miami, FL, cming to an end today.

Of the 28 teams only two teams went into the last day undefeated. The team on which our granddaughter is playing was one of those two teams.

The other undefeated team lost its final game today and will finish the tournament with three wins, one loss.

The score just came in: our granddaughter's team lost. There will no undefeated teams, and our granddaughter's team will finish the first half of the tournament with three wins, one loss, and #1 in their division.

The second half of the tournament will be held next March, 2020, in Las Vegas.

Following this tournament, our granddaughter will fly out to Los Angeles to to participate in another tournament. In that tournament, she is playing "up." She is an eighth grader playing on a ninth-grade team in a national tournament for ninth graders.

The scouts are out. Unfortunately I don't know how to load the instagram video but some scout or coach loaded a video of our granddaughter with a corner kick. It's quite impressive. But, of course, that's a grandfather's perspective. LOL.

On a side note, our granddaughter was one of the very few non-forwards to have scored a goal in the tournament. It just happened that she scored on a penalty kick in a game in which her team won, 1 - 0. In soccer, the coach decides which player will kick the penalty kick. It is not like a foul in basketball.

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List; COP Sells Niobrara Assets -- November 27, 2019

First things first: Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all hit intra-day all-time highs. 3Q19 GDP is revised upward, now over 2% at 2.1%.

Rig counts don't matter: rigs continue to drop; production continues to increase.

MDU feeling flush: will increase 5-year CAPEX by 8.6%. This speaks volumes about the future of the Bakken.

Kashagan cuts production: maintenance or something of that sort. 

COP sells Niobrara, link here:

One of the biggest international oil giants is selling its oil and gas lease rights at the northeast edge of the metro area in a deal poised to make Denver-based Crestone Peak Resources much bigger. Houston-based ConocoPhillips Co. said Tuesday that it has negotiated the deal. Niobrara refers to geological formation that’s most sought after for unconventional oil and gas development in northeast Colorado.

Financial terms not disclosed.

Crestone Peak revealed Monday that it had struck a deal to buy 97,000 acres of oil and gas lease rights in Adams and Arapahoe counties and in the city of Aurora, nearly tripling the company’s size in the southern Denver-Julesburg Basin.

The deal includes the Lowry Range, a former military bombing range east of Aurora, and some ConocoPhillips acreage in northern Douglas and Elbert counties, too.

The Niobrara is tracked at the sidebar at the right.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$58.40	11/27/2019	11/27/2018	11/27/2017	11/27/2016	11/27/2015
Active Rigs	56	62	54	37	64

Four wells coming off confidential list today -- Wednesday, November 27, 2019: 93 for the month; 194 for the quarter:

• 36137, SI/NC, XTO, Sorkness State Federal 34X-36H, Sorkness, no production data,
• 35639, SI/NC, WPX, St. Anthony 9-16HX, Mandaree, no production data,
• 35547, 2,041, CLR, Carus 7-28H, Cedar Coulee, t8/19; cum 138K 9/19;
• 30107, 820, Oasis, Jensen 55-1 43-7 5B, Missouri Ridge, t6/19; bcum 84K 9/19; 

RBN Energy: Noble Midstream's crude gathering systems in the D-J Basin, part 2.

The doubling of crude oil production in the Denver-Julesburg Basin over the past 18 months spurred a rapid build-out of crude gathering systems and other infrastructure. Unlike the sprawling Permian Basin, with its numerous centers of drilling and production activity in parts of West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, the vast majority of the D-J Basin’s incremental crude output has come from Weld County, CO. Understandably, Weld County also is where most of the D-J’s crude gathering systems are located, and where most of the gathering system expansions are being planned and built. Today, we continue a series on existing and planned pipeline networks to move D-J crude from the lease to regional hubs and takeaway pipes.

Previously, we explained that the D-J Basin in northeastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming offers an unusually intense concentration of hydrocarbons within four geologic layers, or “benches,” only a few thousand feet below the surface, as well as low per-well drilling costs and direct pipeline access to the crude hub in Cushing, OK. We also pointed out that the rate of crude oil production growth in the D-J Basin in 2018-19 has been second only to the Permian, and that D-J production now averages about 640 Mb/d. To kick off our review of crude gathering systems in the D-J, we started with the play’s largest network: the Black Diamond system in Weld County, which is jointly owned by Noble Midstream Partners and Greenfield Midstream.

Noble Midstream is a master limited partnership (MLP) formed in 2016 by Noble Energy, one of the largest producers in the D-J; Greenfield Midstream, in turn, is a privately held midstream developer and owner. Black Diamond currently has about 240 miles of gathering pipe and 390 Mbbl of crude storage capacity; another 30 Mbbl of storage will come online in the first quarter of 2020. Nearly a dozen customers have dedicated a total of about 286,000 acres to the system, whose crude oil flows now average about 130 Mb/d. Finally, we noted that Black Diamond recently secured an option to purchase up to a 20% ownership interest in the Saddlehorn Pipeline, one of the big crude conduits linking the D-J and Cushing; that option expires in April 2020.