Idle Chatter, Petro-Hunt And The Charlson -- October 29, 2019

Disclaimer: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. In a long note like this, there will be factual and typographical errors. 

Of all the operators in the Bakken, Petro-Hunt seems to be off the radar scope.

Hold that thought.

There are a lot of great fields in the Bakken. It's impossible for me to come up with a top ten list. Some fields are hot for awhile, then activity slows down and another field becomes hot. Here are some of the fields that always get me excited:

• Elm Tree
• Banks
• Grail
• Stockyard Creek
• Reunion Bay
• Sanish
• Parshall 

One field that doesn't get a lot of attention but is probably the most interesting. The Charlson. I've blogged about it several times. One of my better, longer posts on Petro-Hunt and the Charlson is at this link.

I was reminded of that when updating a 2560-acre drilling unit in the Charlson.

One of the wells:

• 16452, 265, Petro-Hunt, USA 14D-4-1H, Charlson, single section, t10/07; cum 374K 8/19;

For newbies:

• this well was drilled in the very first year of the Bakken boom, 2007
• this well is now twelve years old
• for such an old well, its cumulative production is mediocre at best -- but that's by today's standards; in 2007, EURs in the Bakken were pegged at 375,000 bbls; and guess what? that's exactly where this well is
• but then this:
• monthly production, after the dreaded Bakken decline, plateaued at around 3,000 bbls/month (which, by the way, is a nice well) 
• last summer, the 11-year-old well was taken off line for three months to give it a breather (LOL)
• when it came back on line, production jumped 17,000 bbls/month -- a 5-fold increase in production
• but there's more: this was the production when this well was first drilled/completed:

BAKKEN	2-2008	29	2626	2633	155	3501	3501	0
BAKKEN	1-2008	31	3191	3198	148	4171	4171	0
BAKKEN	12-2007	30	4015	4051	277	5636	5636	0
BAKKEN	11-2007	27	5079	5120	686	6535	6535	0
BAKKEN	10-2007	27	7527	7298	1064	9261	9261	0
BAKKEN	9-2007	2	564	512	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The best this well did immediately after being completed, less than 8,000 bbls/month.

Then eleven years later, a jump in production from 3,000 bbls/month to 17,000 bbls/month.

Recent production:

BAKKEN	1-2019	31	8434	8415	3037	7885	0	7885
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	10701	10643	3439	8782	0	8782
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	11206	11186	3772	8156	0	8156
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	11968	12043	4857	8949	0	8949
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	14350	14365	5373	10551	0	10551
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	17439	17616	7744	12368	0	12361
BAKKEN	7-2018	12	7552	7289	4030	7408	0	7408
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	19	1294	1341	475	1129	91	1037
BAKKEN	3-2018	28	2503	2666	890	2340	1579	761

From a sundry form dated November 26, 2007:

A 12 1/4" surface hole was drilled and 9 5/8" casing cemented without any problems.

An 8 3/4" hole was then drilled to 10,266' MD and 7" casing was ran and cemented.

A 6" hole was then drilled to 15,456' MD and a 4 1/2" liner set and cemented from 10,003' to 10,673' with the remainder of it left open hole. A coiled tubing motor was stuck and lost in the lateral at 10,640'.

When it -- the coiled tubing motor -- couldn't be recovered, a bridge plug was set at 9,953', a window cut in the casing, and a curve built to intersect the old lateral.

Even though the 2nd lateral was drilled in the same direction, it failed to intersect the first lateral. The second lateral was drilled to 14,570' MD and a 4 1/2" liner was ran and cemented from 9,610' to 10,675'.

The well was completed [sic -- drilled to depth] but would not flow so it was sand fractured. It was placed on rod pumping unit 11-21-2007.

Frack data at time of original completion, back in 2007:

• open hole or perforated interval: 10,675' - 14,570'
• 72,360 lbs mesh sand
• 348,500 lbs mesh sand with 5,513 bbls of gelled water

IP: 265

(Some of the data below is a repeat from above.)

First twelve months production, May, 2007 - May 2008:

BAKKEN	5-2008	31	1397	1403	70	1618	1618	0
BAKKEN	4-2008	27	1597	1616	333	2123	2123	0
BAKKEN	3-2008	28	2371	2382	211	3093	3093	0
BAKKEN	2-2008	29	2626	2633	155	3501	3501	0
BAKKEN	1-2008	31	3191	3198	148	4171	4171	0
BAKKEN	12-2007	30	4015	4051	277	5636	5636	0
BAKKEN	11-2007	27	5079	5120	686	6535	6535	0
BAKKEN	10-2007	27	7527	7298	1064	9261	9261	0
BAKKEN	9-2007	2	564	512	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2007	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

It was refracked from January 24, 2015, to January 26, 2015, according to FracFocus, with a very, very small completion: 1.3 million gallons of water; 88.9% water by mass; sand, 8.85% by mass. 

Plateaued to 2,000 bbls/month through most of its life; representative profile, July, 2016, to July, 2017:

BAKKEN	7-2017	25	2504	2194	1113	1688	1557	127
BAKKEN	6-2017	17	1751	1674	1907	3169	2725	347
BAKKEN	5-2017	14	487	544	457	426	370	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	29	1712	1708	1300	1936	1756	10
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	2596	2620	862	3007	2791	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	2639	2639	935	2951	2756	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	20	2176	2170	692	2142	832	1174
BAKKEN	12-2016	30	2350	2335	623	3274	0	3068
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	2260	2250	687	3112	0	2903
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	2498	2532	890	2016	1692	108
BAKKEN	9-2016	12	1256	1169	567	1071	987	0
BAKKEN	8-2016	24	2064	2097	607	2184	2017	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	2839	2879	865	2897	2681	0

It was taken off line for four months, summer of 2018, and this was the production when it came back on line; it was not re-fracked:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2019	29	2525	2452	2105	6252	0	6252
BAKKEN	7-2019	26	4184	4264	2251	12471	0	12471
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	5235	5322	2648	6041	0	6041
BAKKEN	5-2019	31	6561	6521	2011	10508	0	10508
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	6550	6513	2052	5997	0	5955
BAKKEN	3-2019	30	6799	6802	2617	6777	0	6568
BAKKEN	2-2019	28	7419	7493	2492	6487	0	6341
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	8434	8415	3037	7885	0	7885
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	10701	10643	3439	8782	0	8782
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	11206	11186	3772	8156	0	8156
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	11968	12043	4857	8949	0	8949
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	14350	14365	5373	10551	0	10551
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	17439	17616	7744	12368	0	12361
BAKKEN	7-2018	12	7552	7289	4030	7408	0	7408

So, did you catch that. Petro-Hunt wasn't even going to frack this well. They drilled to depth. But the well would not flow. So, they pumped a bit of sand and a bit of water down the wellbore and they had a well.

There are some fields that seem particularly well-suited for re-fracks. The Charlson is one of them. Reunion Bay seems to be another.

By the way, look at this Petro-Hunt Charlson well, only three years old and trending toward one million bbls cumulative, and a very moderate frack:

• 28016, 912, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-1HS, middle Bakken, 37 stages; 4.7 million lbs, Charlson, t11/15; cum 721K 8/19; huge well; still at 8,000 bbls/month, 8/19;

Random Update Of A 2560-Acre Drilling Unit In The Charlson Oil Field -- October 30, 2019

This is an incredible location. There are a lot of wells here, but in the big scheme of things, many more wells are likely to be drilled, and I assume most of these are middle Bakken wells; if such, they still have the Three Forks to drill.

Charlson oil field:

• 1280-acre units
• 22/15-153-95
• 23-14-153-95
• 640-acre unit: 23-153-95
• 1280-acre units: 22/15-153-95
• 1280-acre units: 23/14-153-95
• 2560-acre unit: 23/22/14/15-153-95 (?); could be others

Wells of interest:

• 27056, a line well, sited in section 28, runs north along west section line of section 22; end in section 22; 1,803, Petro-Hunt, Van Hise Trust 153-95-28D-21-2HS, t9/14; cum 372K 8/19; steady Eddy; down to 3,000 bbls/month, 8/19; spacing, 4 section (2560-are): sections 21/22/27/28-153-95;

• 30569, 564, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22C-15-6H, middle Bakken, 41 stages; 10 million lbs, 2 sections, Charlson, t10/18; cum 184K 8/19; huge well; very new, 8/19;
• 19979, 817, Pertro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-1H, 2 sections, Charlson, t7/11; cum 620K 8/19; huge well; but old, but recent jump in production, 8/19;
• 22334, 2,006, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22C-15-2H, Charlson, t12/12; cum 451K 8/19; steady Eddy; continues to do well at almost 3,000 bbls/month, 8/19;
• 26214, 2,122, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95 22C-15-3H, Charlson, t1/14; cum 569K 8/19; steady Eddy; holding up well; at 6,000 bbls/month, 8/19;

• 28018, 835, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-4H, Charlson, t10/16; cum 496K 8/19; huge well; still at 8,000 bbls/month, 8/19;
• 28017, 830, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-5H, Charlson, t10/16; cu 466K 8/19; huge well; still at 7,000 bbls/month, 8/19;
• 28016, 912, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-1HS, middle Bakken, 37 stages; 4.7 million lbs, Charlson, t11/15; cum 721K 8/19; huge well; still at 8,000 bbls/month, 8/19;
• 28015, 816, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-2HS, Charlson, four sections, t101/6; cum 538K 8/19; huge well; still at 10,000 bbls/month, 8/19;
• 30183, 724, Petro-Hunt, Sherven Trust 153-95-27A-7HS, middle Bakken, 26 stages, 2.1 million lbs; Charlson, two sections, t10/16; cum 208K 8/19;

• 29090, 1,032, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C=14-6H, Charlson, t7/18; cum 242K 819; huge well;
• 29091, 1,031, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-5H, Charlson, t6/18; cum 223K 8/19; huge well;
• 32165, 1,090, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-4H, Charlson, t5/18; cum 254K 8/19; huge well;

• 33812, 1,480, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14 3H, Charlson, t7/18; cum 232K 8/19; huge well;
• 33813, 1,595, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14-2H, Charlson, t7/18; cum 396K 8/19; huge well;
• 33814, 1,773, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-14 1H, Charlson, t7/18; cum 308K 8/19; huge well;
• 33817, 683, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23D-1411HS, two sections, Charlson, t7/18; cum 373K 8/19; huge well;

• 17799, 457, BR, Guadalupe 11-23H, one section, Charlson, t3/09; cum 542K 8/19; huge jump 7/18; not re-fracked;

• 16452, 265, Petro-Hunt, USA 14D-4-1H, one section, open hole, 425,000 lbs sand, Charlson, 10/07 cum 374K 8/19; huge jump 8/18;

Notes From All Over, All Politics -- California -- October 28, 2019

Link here.

From wiki:

Under the current Democratic Party selection rules, adopted in 2006, pledged delegates are selected under proportional representation, which requires a candidate have a minimum of 15% of a state's popular vote to receive delegates.

I have trouble believing each of the three front-runners -- Biden, Pocahontas, Sanders -- won't each get at least 15%. Having said that, I can imagine Biden imploding in California, with Sanders and Pocahontas stealing enough votes from Biden to put him below the 15% threshold.

But if each of the three front runners get a 35 - 35 - 30 split, then we go into the DNC convention with no one having 50% plus one delegate. In the 2016 primary, Hillary really did not have a credible opponent until late in the process when Bernie Sanders finally made a presence. But Hillary also owned the "super-delegates." That is different this time around.

None of the three front-runners have the commanding lead that Hillary had, and the super-delegates cannot vote in the first round if the front runner doesn't already have 50% delegates +1. Super-delegates can only begin voting in the second round if no one candidate has 50% + 1 delegate coming into the convention.

There are many reports that Buttigieg is surging. But to get even one delegate in any state he needs to poll at least 15%. He is nowhere close to that yet.

I have trouble seeing the top three garnering less than seventy percent combined. That leaves 30% -- Harris, Buttigieg, and Yang would share that 30%, none of them reaching the 15% threshold.

Tea Leaves -- Idle Rambling -- October 30, 2019

First things first: before we get to BYD, LOL-funny. Special mid-week edition.

As the Babylon Bee puts it, who knew that Trump could get Democrats to interrupt baseball, condemn dogs, and side with terrorists—all within the space of 24 hours? In any case, who knew that a frequent theme of the Week in Pictures—hero dogs—would become a front page headline?

I haven't seen a Babylon Bee "reference" in weeks and in the past twelve hours, I get two Babylon Bee "hits." One from a reader late last evening, and then the one above.

From the perspective of an old man who sort of watches the EV industry: things don't look real promising.

From this morning:

More and more, EVs look like a toy for the elite.

It will be interesting to see how this story is spun. Ford is betting the company on EVs.

Only One Well Comes Off The Confidential List Today -- October 30, 2019

First things first: Buffett-backed EV company profits plunge 89% year-over-year on disappointing sales. Link.

“As subsidies on new energy vehicles drop sharply, sales of new energy vehicles are falling short of expectations. It is expected that the profit of the company’s new energy vehicle business will also decline to a certain extent compared with the same period of last year,” BYD said in a stock exchange filing.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
 
First things first: huge shout-out to Starbucks -- coffee "on the house" this morning -- I came in despite fierce rain, cold; breakfast free with "stars" rewards; what a great country.

First things first: seventh and final game of the World Series tonight.

First things first: Apple, Inc, reports earnings after the market closes this afternoon

Fourth straight inventory build: right in line with expectations -- small build; less than a million bbls; EIA to report later this morning.

Texas advertises in California: "we have electricity." Governor Newsome disputes; says it's not possible to have electricity 24/7; questions whether Texas even exists.

Gasoline: regular unleaded gasoline down to $2.08 almost everywhere in north Texas. Actually, I suppose most signs show $2.18/gallon but it's easy to find $2.08/gallon. And then I see that US crude oil inventories increased again last week -- albeit at a very small pace.

*************************************

Back to the Bakken

Active wells:

$55.51	10/30/2019	10/30/2018	10/30/2017	10/30/2016	10/30/2015
Active Rigs	59	68	52	34	70

Only one well coming off the confidential list today --Wednesday, October 30, 2019: 95 for the month; 95 for the quarter:

• 35280, 409, Enerplus, Marigold 149-93-21B-22H-LL, Mandaree, t4/19; cum 66K 8/19;

RBN Energy: a CBR project advances in the Uinta Basin.

To hear proponents of Uinta Basin waxy crude oil tell it, all that’s keeping the hydrocarbon-packed region in northeastern Utah from significantly increasing production in the 2020s is a better way to transport their shoe-polish-like crude to Gulf Coast refineries than trucking to existing transloading facilities. And now, they think they’ve finally found it. If all goes to plan, by early 2023 a new, 85-mile short-line railroad will be in place to move at least two 110-car unit trains of waxy crude a day from the epicenter of Uinta Basin production to interconnections with two long-haul rail lines. That would give producers significantly enhanced access to markets far beyond the five Salt Lake City-area refineries to which they now truck some 90% of their output. Today, we conclude our series on the Uinta Basin with a look at the proposed Uinta Basin Railway crude-by-rail project and what it would mean for the play’s producers, as well as for Gulf Coast refiners.