Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- October 23, 2019

First things first: F reports today, after market closes. According to Ford:  

DEARBORN, Michigan, Sept. 24, 2019 – Ford Motor Company (NYSE:F) and Ford Motor Credit Company will release their 2019 third quarter financial results at 4:05 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 23.

• 7:10 a.m. CT, today: F just turned green, up one penny; earnings not yet available; but Dow moves from negative 100 to negative 40; is the market excited about F?
• 6:50 a.m. CT, today: F down 5 cents in pre-market trading; earnings appear not to be  out yet; overall market down in pre-market trading so five cents off for F not concerning;

First things first: South Dakota county gives "green light" to DAPL expansion in 4 - 1 vote.

First things first: Washington Nationals take first game, 5 - 4.

First things first: that lop-sided win Sunday night by the Dallas Cowboys over an important rival put a smile on Jerry Jones' face. 

UNP: huge day for the shares yesterday. Transcript here. UNP up 2.2% yesterday; up $3.70, traded over $170/share in first time for quite some time. Remains well below its 52-week high of $180.

US market: the market is down in pre-market trading -- some say it is due to fact that CAT disappointed: revenue declined by 6% in 3Q19; slashed 4Q19 earnings guidance by 10%.

Awkward grammar: in another first, US now exports crude oil to more destinations than it imports from. Link here. This was a big, big story yesterday at some sites. Does number of destinations to/from really matter, or is it the overall number more important. I don't know. I suppose if one thinks about it for a moment, I guess it's a big deal. The bigger story is that US crude oil exports are smashing records as seen by the graphic at that link. Interestingly enough, US imports remain stubbornly flat -- yes, recently a significant drop -- but still quite choppy. I guess between 2009 and 2019, it appears US imports dropped from 9 million bopd to 7 million bopd; while over same period, exports increased from zero bopd to 2 million bopd. Well, imagine that.

737 MAX: Boeing fires Kevine McAllister, head of unit that makes the 737 MAX. Link here.

Cash crunch or just smart move? We mentioned this in passing yesterday -- Saudi Arabia sells $2.5 billion in bonds. First international debt sale since the attack in September, 2019. Orders peaked at $14 billion (huge demand). Usury laws?

Chevron/Permian/boom: CEO not worried about boom/bust cycle in the Permian -- looks for boom/boom cycle. Behind a paywall at the first link, but full story, no paywall, at Rigzone. 

Chevron/Venezuela: granted 3-month waiver to continue operating in Venezuela. CVX up $1.19 yesterday but will be under pressure today with a) overall market down; b) another US crude oil build; and, c) WTI down a bit.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

China/natural gas shortage: tea leaves suggest China could be in store for a tough winter, natural gas shortages.

Six Wells Came Off The Confidential List Yesterday; None Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- October 23, 2019

Wells coming off the confidential list today: none.

Coming off the confidential list yesteray -- Tuesday, October 22, 2019: 76 for the month; 76 for the quarter:

• 35398, SI/NC, Hess, RS-Aadnes-157-91-2829H-4, Ross, no production data,
• 35209, 1,195, Whiting, Moline 21-14-2H, Tyrone, t5/19; cum 84K 8/19;
• 34943, 1,750, Whiting, Moline 41-15-2HU, Tyrone, t5/19; cum 95K 8/19;
• 33787, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 6-22-15-157N-100W TFH, Marmon, no production data,
• 33026, 2,362, CLR, Hereford Federa 11-17H, Elm Tree, t9/19; cum --; after initial production, immediately shut in ;
• 30645, IA, CLR, Sorenson 9-16H1, Alkali Creek, t--; cum --; produced for six days and then immediately take off line;

Active rigs:

$53.93	10/23/2019	10/23/2018	10/23/2017	10/23/2016	10/23/2015
Active Rigs	61	70	54	34	68

RBN Energy: a CBR project advances in the Uinta Basin, part 3.

To hear proponents of Uinta Basin waxy crude oil tell it, all that’s keeping the hydrocarbon-packed region in northeastern Utah from significantly increasing production in the 2020s is a better way to transport their shoe-polish-like crude to Gulf Coast refineries than trucking to existing transloading facilities. And now, they think they’ve finally found it. If all goes to plan, by early 2023 a new, 85-mile short-line railroad will be in place to move at least two 110-car unit trains of waxy crude a day from the epicenter of Uinta Basin production to interconnections with two long-haul rail lines. That would give producers significantly enhanced access to markets far beyond the five Salt Lake City-area refineries to which they now truck some 90% of their output. Today, we conclude our series on the Uinta Basin with a look at the proposed Uinta Basin Railway crude-by-rail project and what it would mean for the play’s producers, as well as for Gulf Coast refiners.

Six New Permits -- October 22, 2019

IPO: ever since it was announced I was highly skeptical the IPO would ever see the light of day (one post here, back on February 19, 2018). The IPO was delayed at the last minute earlier this week and now news is trickling out why that occurred (hint: not enough interest). Today there is a story that Saudi Arabia is issuing $250 billion in bonds to shore up its foreign reserves assets. I was going to post a "tea leaves suggest" that the IPO is not going to happen, or if it does, it's going to be watered down to something very, very small and listed only on some obscure Mideast bourse. But zerohedge beat me to it and probably did a better job than I would have:

Saudi Aramco’s IPO looks doomed to failure as it targets a $2 trillion flotation.

Tepid oil prices, the fraught politics of the Middle East and the demonization of fossil fuel producers in response to climate change fears have all made the initial public offering (IPO) a mission impossible.

The kingdom had looked poised to list up to 2 percent of its shares on its domestic market within weeks. But the long-delayed partial privatization of the world’s largest state-owned oil company now faces another indefinite postponement after the devastating attacks last month on some of its most important facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia.  

API weekly inventory data:  

• forecast: 2.232 million bbls
• actual: 4.45 million bbls

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$54.22	10/22/2019	10/22/2018	10/22/2017	10/22/2016	10/22/2015
Active Rigs	61	71	54	34	69

Six new permits, #37106 - #37111, inclusive:

• Operators: BR; Crescent Point Energy
• Fields: Twin Valley (McKenzie); Marmon (Williams)
• Comments:
• BR has permits for a 5-well Carlsbad pad in section 17-152-97, Twin Valley oil field
• Crescent Point Energy has a permit for a CPEUSC Njos well in section 26-157-100, Marmon oil field;

Thirteen permits renewed:

• EOG (7): seven Burke permits in Mountrail County
• QEP (2): two MHA permits, one in Mountrail County; one in Dunn County
• Whiting: a Cvancara permit in Mountrail County
• CLR: one Elveida permit in Divide County
• NP Resources: one Trotter Federal permit in McKenzie County 
• Petro-Hunt: a Mongoose permit in McKenzie County

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- October 22, 2019

First things first: World Series -- first game tonight. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

The market, before the opening --

• AAPL remains on a tear; up a bit in pre-market trading; now over $241 with upgrades from analysts
• UNP: no trading yet, but was up 3.45% yesterday; jump $5.57 yesterday
• TSLA: down a percent yesterday; getting some of that back today
• F: most interesting automobile company right now; up slightly in pre-market trading
• GM: will start building premium electric pickup trucks and SUV's starting in late 2021
• PFE: up slightly in pre-market trading

Ex-Div today: 53 (filtered from 80 today entries) -- nothing of interest.

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The Word For The Day: Gabion

So much is packed into this article, and there's even a tie-in with Fargo, ND, over at wiki:

The HESCO MIL is a modern gabion primarily used for flood control and military fortifications. It is made of a collapsible wire mesh container and heavy duty fabric liner, and used as a temporary to semi-permanent levee or blast wall against explosions or small-arms. It has seen considerable use in Iraq and Afghanistan. It was developed in the late 1980s by a British company of the same name.

Originally designed for use on beaches and marshes for erosion and flood control, the HESCO MIL quickly became a popular security device in the 1990s.

HESCO barriers continue to be used for their original purpose. They were used in 2005 to reinforce levees around New Orleans in the few days between Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. During the June 2008 Midwest floods 9,000 yd of HESCO barrier wall were shipped to Iowa.

In late March, 2009, 11,700 yd of HESCO barrier were delivered to Fargo, North Dakota, to protect against floods. In late September, 2016, 10 miles of HESCO barriers were used in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, for the fall flood of 2016.

Specifically, the brand name for the barrier is "Concertainer" (a portmanteau of "concertina" and "container"), with HESCO Bastion being the company that produces it.

I was reading The Ancient Celts, Barry Cunliffe, c. 2018, page 329, when the author discusses Caesar's use of the word oppidum, briefly, a large Celtic settlement in Gaul in the middle of the first century BC.

Oppidum was distinguished from:

• vici: villages
• aedificia (edifice): farmsteads
• civitates: towns within the provincia
• urbs (urban): specifically for a few larger residential sites

The author considers oppidum to be a portmanteau word but I don't see that. Latin op might be construed to mean "work/works" such as a settlement, but that's a stretch. And the Latin pid doesn't exist except as a derivation of ped, feet, or similar.

Oppida were not Celtic capitals. There were too many of them to be capitals, although they may have had "regional authority."

There really is no connection between the HESCO MIL and oppidum but simply due to the peculiarities of a google search, the former popped up which then led to gabion.

Damn The Torpedoes -- Full Speed Ahead -- CLR In Haystack Butte -- October 22, 2019

See this from a year ago: CLR wants to put up to 23 wells in one drilling unit. July, 2018, hearing dockets, case #26772.

So, how does that unit look today, sections 4/5/8/9-148-97, Haystack Butte?

With these eleven sites, almost halfway there: