The Incredible Bakken -- September 18, 2019

The incredible Bakken.

The well:

• 20856, 1,349, Whiting, King 3-8H, Truax, t1/12; cum 354K 7/19;

Hubbert's theory says that once oil production begins to decline it will never increase again.

The full production for this well is found at this post.

Two selected periods.

First period of interest, 5/17 -- 7/18, fairly recent:

BAKKEN	7-2018	31	8540	8546	7471	23987	8532	15362
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	10012	9987	8389	27691	13719	13882
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	12473	12503	10121	29894	19588	10213
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	15356	15260	12565	34284	22741	11453
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	17483	17738	13014	31691	18580	13018
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	20968	20660	15992	32062	10784	21194
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	25285	25313	25613	22321	7247	14982
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	27369	27409	48337	17428	10464	6872
BAKKEN	11-2017	11	4202	3823	17704	6815	4626	2158
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	24	899	1004	538	1862	1787	3
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	1327	1351	691	2657	2564	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	1089	1009	695	2636	2543	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	1096	1141	668	2551	2461	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	1287	1226	688	2610	2517	0

Second period of interest, 1/12 - 11/12, initial production and the dreaded Bakken decline:

BAKKEN	11-2012	30	4284	4159	2116	9475	9320	67
BAKKEN	10-2012	22	3257	3321	1723	9082	7949	1078
BAKKEN	9-2012	30	4499	4465	2451	9470	8358	1029
BAKKEN	8-2012	31	5797	6000	3716	9237	6914	2232
BAKKEN	7-2012	2	159	324	233	317	80	231
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	6043	6051	3160	14317	8775	5452
BAKKEN	5-2012	22	5884	6231	3102	12342	4653	7623
BAKKEN	4-2012	21	6807	5819	5297	13750	4537	9150
BAKKEN	3-2012	14	3596	3940	2390	7865	1991	5832
BAKKEN	2-2012	29	15195	15089	12620	31430	6269	25074
BAKKEN	1-2012	2	528	0	2374	831	0	828

The Grilling Page -- September 18, 2019

For the archives.

I hate the phrase, "caveman grilling," preferring to call it "direct charcoal cooking."

I honestly think this is the best steak I have ever tasted.

Took three minutes to "grill."

One-minute-thirty seconds each side, and I probably overcooked it by 20 - 40 seconds.

A non-descript top sirloin steak from Wal-Mart. A dry rub; the steak kept at room temperature while starting the fire.

Charcoal started with "charcoal lighter cubes."

Embers were ready to go in 20 minutes.

Three minutes on the charcoal. The fire was so hot, special grilling gloves were used.

Fifteen minutes in heavy aluminum foil. 

Lunch.

US Crude Oil Inventories Increase By Small Amount; Up 1.1 Million Bbls -- September 18, 2019

WTI: $58.42

EIA weekly petroleum report:

• US crude oil inventories increased by 1.1 million bbls
• US crude oil inventories stand at 417.1 million bbls, or about 2% below the five year average
• refineries operating well below full capacity; operating at 91.2% capacity
• crude oil imports almost 15% less than what it was last year over this four-week period

EIA's short term energy outlook also posted. I'll let others discuss it. It looks like US is migrating from inexpensive coal and hydro to very expensive wind to generate electricity. 


Re-balancing:

Week	Week Ending	Change	Million Bbls Storage
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 6	January 4, 2019	0.0	441.4
Week 7	January 9, 2019	-1.7	439.7
Week 8	January 16, 2019	-2.7	437.1
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0
Week 10	January 31, 2019	0.9	445.9
Week 11	February 6, 2019	1.3	447.2
Week 12	February 13, 2019	3.6	450.8
Week 13	February 21, 2019	3.7	454.5
Week 14	February 27, 2019	-8.6	445.9
Week 15	March 6, 2019	7.1	452.9
Week 16	March 13, 2019	-3.9	449.1
Week 17	March 20, 2019	-9.6	439.5
Week 18	March 27, 2019	2.8	442.3
Week 19	April 3, 2019	7.2	449.5
Week 20	April 10, 2019	7.0	456.5
Week 21	April 17, 2019	-1.4	455.2
Week 22	April 24, 2019	5.5	460.1
Week 23	May 1, 2019	9.9	470.6
Week 24	May 8, 2019	-4.0	466.6
Week 25	May 15, 2019	5.4	472.0
Week 26	May 22, 2019	4.7	476.8
Week 27	May 30, 2019	-0.3	476.5
Week 28	June 5, 2019	6.8	483.3
Week 29	June 12, 2019	2.2	485.5
Week 30	June 19, 2019	-3.1	482.4
Week 31	June 26, 2019	-12.8	469.6
Week 32	July 3, 2019	-1.1	468.5
Week 33	July 10, 2019	-9.5	459.0
Week 34	July 17, 2019	-3.1	455.9
Week 35	July 24, 2019	-10.8	445.1
Week 36	July 31, 2019	-8.5	436.5
Week 37	August 7, 2019	2.4	438.9
Week 38	August 14, 2019	1.6	440.5
Week 29	August 21, 2019	-2.7	437.8
Week 30	August 28, 2019	-10.0	427.8
Week 31	September 5, 2019	-4.8	423.0
Week 32	September 11, 2019	-6.9	416.1
Week 33	September 18, 2019	1.1	417.1

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- September 18, 2019

From twitter today.

Saudi crude inventories fell by 8 million bbls in July; confusing "m" and "k" again --

• high of 320 million bbls in late 2015
• steady fall since then
• now: 180 million bbls
• recent low: 140 million bbls back in 2003

Humberto: now a hurricane; second major hurricane this season; first one, Dorian, did not reach US landfall; this one won't even come close to the US but will get a lot of press.

When will Saudi "return to normal"?

Irrelevant. "Experts" are arguing over meaningless details. How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? Best way to follow this story: follow the price of oil. Some even argue that at 12 million bopd Saudi won't be up to full capacity; now it's getting weird.

Aramaco CEO: repairs will be complete by the end of the month. The one-line tweet didn't say which month.

How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? "What does normal mean? Does that mean they are a million bopd short, or two million bopd short?" Completely irrelevant. Wow, this gets tedious.

Travel warning: US State Department recommends "increased caution" while traveling to Saudi Arabia. State Department also reminded folks that the sun will appear to come up in the east tomorrow.

Project Tundra: North Dakota carbon capture program receives $10 million from DOE. Bismarck Tribune. Only a billion dollars but "California bullet train" flashed in front of my eyes while reading the article.

WTI: drops another $1.15. Now trading at $58.19 [September 18, 2019, 8:21 a.m.]