Old Buelingo Well In Elm Tree Oil Field With Jump In Production -- August 30, 2019

Old Buelingo well with huge jump in production. See this link.

John Svedrup To Go Into Production Soon -- August 30, 2019

The John Svedrup oil play is followed here (also at the sidebar at the right).

From Reuters:

Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field could begin oil shipments in October, earlier than the scheduled November start, ...

... 11 cargoes in October ...

... implies that loadings from Johan Sverdrup, the largest North Sea discovery in more than three decades, will average around 226,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October.

Daily production from the field’s first phase is projected to reach peak output of 440,000 bpd of oil in summer 2020, and will likely rise to a peak of 660,000 bpd once the second phase comes on stream in late 2022 ...

226,000 / 11 = 20,000 bbls/loading.

WTI Slips To $55; Four New Permits -- August 30, 2019

Active rigs (Baker Hughes says "51" for Williston Basin:

$55.07	8/30/2019	08/30/2018	08/30/2017	08/30/2016	08/30/2015
Active Rigs	64	62	54	33	76

Four new permits, #36928 - #36931, inclusive:

• Operator: XTO
• Field: Heart Butte (DUN)
• Comments: XTO has permits for a 4-well FBIR Guyblackhawk pad in section 27-149-92, Heart Butte oil field

Released from confidential list today:

• 32442, 1,468, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 1H, Williston, t5/19; cum 85K 7/19;
• 32443, 1,560, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 2H, Williston, t5/19; cum 58K 7/19;
• 35985, 1,169, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 6H, Williston, t6/19; cum 51K 7/19;
• 35986, 1,158, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 7H, Williston, t6/19; cum 48K 7/19;
• 35987, 696, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 8H, Williston, t6/19; cum 37K 7/19;

Two permits canceled:

• White Butte: two Jore Federal permits in McKenzie County

Five permits renewed:

• Hess (3): three SC-Ellingsberg permits in Williams County
• Slawson (2): two Phatkat Federal permits in Mountrail County

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35975, 1,834, Newfield, Sturgeon 150-99-18-19-4H, South Tobacco Garden, t7/19; cum --;
• 34742, 914,  Oasis, Mildred Nelson 5298 13-25 8B, Elidah, t6/19; cum 14K over 22 days;
• 34939, 3,739, Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-12, Alkali Creek, t7/19; cum --;
• 34938, 3,246,  Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-11, Alkali Creek, t7/19; cum --;
• 33237, 900, Hess, AN-Dinwoodie-153-94-2833H-7, Antelope-Sanish, t7/19; cum --;
• 34941, 3,333,  Hess, EN-Kulczyk-154-94-2029H-2, Alkali Creek, t8/19; cum --;

From A Year Ago -- Top 10 CLR-Operated Wells In The Bakken -- August 30, 2019

Updates

Later, 4:01 p.m. CT: looking at the top 10 CLR-operated wells listed below -- the following updates:

• 31520, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 5-24H1, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC;
• 31521, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 6-24H, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC;
• 31522, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC;
• 31523, SI/NC, CLR, Steele Federal 9-24H, no production data; SI/NC noted SI/NC;

Original Note

Note: the definition of "top-10 well" may differ from operator to operator, from analyst to analyst. Is it:

• the 24-hr IP?
• the first full day-day production number?
• the first full 90 days of production?
• the first full 120 days of production?
• the EUR type curve?

From August 11, 2018, CLR's 2Q18 corporate presentation:

Top 10 CLR-operated wells Bakken wells (those in bold red make the top 10 list for the entire Bakken -- all operators):

• Mountain Gap 7-10H (#1 of all Bakken wells) (see this post; one post among many)
• Monroe 6-2H (tracked here)
• Mountain Gap 8-10H1 (#2 of all Bakken wells)
• Lansing 6-25H (tracked here)
• Uhlman Federal 3-7H (#3 of all Bakken wells) (tracked here, along with the Pittsburg wells)
• Pittsburgh 3-7H (#4 of all Bakken wells) (tracked here, along with the Uhlman Federal wells)
• Vardon 2-14H (tracked here) [a lot of wells in this area recently fracked (6/19)]
• Tarentaise Federal 1-19H
• Vardon 4-14H
• Tarentaise Federal 3-19H (tracked here); old Buelingo well with huge jump in production;

Things are changing so fast in the Bakken and the production is increasing so fast on newer wells it's becoming harder and harder to compare apples to oranges (new wells to old wells).

With "rich gas" EOR the challenge will become even more difficult.

The good news:

• "every" well completed before 2012 needs to be either re-drilled and re-completed, or simply re-completed (lots of work yet to be done in the Bakken)  
• between 2014 and 2018, operators were focused on better completion strategies
• it's possible, we're in a "plateau" stage right now: waiting for all operators to get to same level 
• the next production/well breakout may be in 2020 or 2022
• the middle Bakken is pretty much fully mapped
• the Three Forks first bench is getting there
• there is very, very little public information regarding the second bench
• "no" information regarding the third bench; and, 
• now the Red River formation might be getting more attention

Some operators and some fields have been incredible from "day 1." The question is: could those wells -- the very best wells in the Bakken -- could they have been even better with current completion strategies? 

Sweet Spots Are Over-Emphasized In The Bakken -- August 30, 2019

[Later: more on "sweet spots" in the Bakken." A reminder: the Bakken "heat map" is linked at the sidebar at the right.]

Original Post

Either I'm way off base or laymen are getting really, really, good at defining "sweet spots."

Like down to the half-mile.

About seven years after I started to blog, I started to think/realize that the whole issue of "sweet spots" in the Bakken was being over-emphasized. The Bakken geographic footprint is not that huge. I've read a lot of geologists' reports over the years, and the thing that strikes me the most: the Bakken is pretty uniform.

I wish I had a date-time stamp for when I first thought that sweet spots in the Bakken were over-emphasized; it probably would have been in 2014 or thereabouts, after seven years of blogging.

The skill of the operator; the roughnecks; the frackers; and, the completion strategies, I think, mean a whole lot more than what "sweet spots" mean, all things being equal. If I had mineral rights in the Bakken I would be more interested in the operator than the location, at least going forward.

Case study.

First, go back to this post.

The "original" Hess EN-Davenport middle Bakken well: an absolutely lousy well based on total production. This well has produced barely 80,000 bbls in eleven years of production. "Modern" Bakken wells are producing that much in three months.

Now, fast forward to a recently completed CLR McClintock well.

The two wells:

• 16928, 82 (no typo), Hess, EN-Davenport-156-94-1003H-1, Big Butte, t11/108; cum 81K 6/19; 
• 35538, 1,833, CLR, McClintock 8-1H1, Pleasant Valley, t2/19; cum 117K 

For newbies:

• the Davenport well: 81,000 bbls in eleven years;
• the McClintock well: 117,000 bbls in 129 days

The wells are sited 4.4 miles from each other.

The horizontals are about 4 miles from each other. 

It's hard for me to believe that one well is in a "sweet spot" while the other one is not.

If one is in a sweet spot and the other is not, it's very, very clear to me that sweet spots can be incredibly localized in the incredibly uniform Bakken.

The graphics:

If sweet spots are important, it appears we're down to measuring "sweet spots" with less than a couple of miles in diameter. Those two "circular" areas above have a radius of about two miles.