- follows the closure of the largest US East Coast refinery in June, 2019
- Bakken: said to be the third-largest US shale field
- 40,000 bopd to the East Coast now stoppd
- ND pipelines: 980,000 bopd -- utilizing more than 90% of its takeaway capacity for the first time since February
- up from 874,000 bopd before the refinery closure
Friday, August 23, 2019
Notes From All Over, Part 3 -- August 23, 2019
Back to CBR: ND pipelines at 90% and production yet to surge. From Reuters: Bakken oil pipeline flows hit six-month high as rail to East Coast drops. Data points:
Not Required, But, Hey, Why Not? What Could Possibly Go Wrong? -- August 23, 2019
The North Dakota PSC scheduled a November hearing on a proposed DAPL expansion. From The Bismarck Tribune. No hearing is required but "everyone" deserves their day in court. Data points:
I'd Rather Go Blind, Beth Hart
Beth Hart at wiki.
Wow, wow, wow. She should do a one-woman Janis Joplin show. Oh, I see that she did.
- November 13, 2019
- Linton, ND
- population: about 1,007 and declining
- 2017: 1,007
- 2010: 1,097
- 1990: 1,414
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The Etta James Page
Beth Hart at wiki.
Wow, wow, wow. She should do a one-woman Janis Joplin show. Oh, I see that she did.
Notes From Norway, Part 1 (I'm Pretty Sure There Will Be No Part 2) -- August 23, 2019
Physics - the Kelvin angle: a 127-year-old physics riddle was solved by two Norwegian grad students and their Norwegian professor who challenged the 1887 "law." Link here.
From the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. Whoo-hoo!
I guess science is never settled -- except for global warming.
The professor worked out his challenge with pencil and paper; his grad students did the experiments and have the video to prove it.
Just a bit from the article:
Wiki has a page on "wakes" but the Hannover.de site is so much more interesting.
Something tells me that Richard Feynman could explain this much better using nothing more than plastic straws floating in the ocean.
From the first round of the PGA FedEx Tour Championship:
Cry To Me, Rocco & Claudia
The cha-cha was one of four basic dances I was taught at an Arthur Murray dance studio in Pasadena, CA, many decades ago. To be more accurate, the young woman tried to teach me to dance, but I was an abysmal failure. I think it was the music she selected. Or perhaps it was the Pelvic angle law.
From the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. Whoo-hoo!
I guess science is never settled -- except for global warming.
The professor worked out his challenge with pencil and paper; his grad students did the experiments and have the video to prove it.
Just a bit from the article:
[The professor] solved a problem regarding the so-called Kelvinangle in boat wakes, which has been unchallenged for 127 years. The boat wake is the v-shaped pattern that a boat or canoe [or mallard duck] makes when moving through the water. You've undoubtedly seen one at some point.
It has long been assumed that the angle of the v-shaped wake behind a boat should always be just below 39 degrees, as long as the water isn't too shallow. Regardless whether it's behind a supertanker or a duck, this should always be true. Or not. For like so many accepted facts, this turns out to be wrong, or at least not always the case. Ellingsen showed this.Ellingsen is most likely the physicist who proved some years ago -- again using college physics -- that honeybees cannot fly.
Wiki has a page on "wakes" but the Hannover.de site is so much more interesting.
Something tells me that Richard Feynman could explain this much better using nothing more than plastic straws floating in the ocean.
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The Sports Page
From the first round of the PGA FedEx Tour Championship:
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The Dance Page
The cha-cha was one of four basic dances I was taught at an Arthur Murray dance studio in Pasadena, CA, many decades ago. To be more accurate, the young woman tried to teach me to dance, but I was an abysmal failure. I think it was the music she selected. Or perhaps it was the Pelvic angle law.
Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- August 23, 2019
Canada: This was sent to me by a reader late yesterday afternoon. I was just beginning my afternoon-early-evening-late-night-Uber-granddaughter-driving.
From that highly credible, mainstream media outlet, MSN:
Mexico first, with "no growth" in 2Q19. Now, Canada.
We've talked about Canada at length, mostly in regard to the Trans Mountain Pipeline. I suppose it was several months ago now that I first identified Canada as a no-growth country, another anti-business country. It looks like MSN is woke.
I saw this story over at Rigzone yesterday but failed to post it then. What a doofus. I completely missed the significance of this story:
US dollar / Canadian dollar exchange rate at this link. I would look at the 10-year history to see how far Canada has fallen.
Other recent major exist from Canada:
From that highly credible, mainstream media outlet, MSN:
Capital keeps marching out of Canada’s oil industry, with Kinder Morgan’s sale of its remaining holdings in the country on Wednesday adding to more than $30 billion of foreign company divestitures in the past three years.Wow.
Mexico first, with "no growth" in 2Q19. Now, Canada.
We've talked about Canada at length, mostly in regard to the Trans Mountain Pipeline. I suppose it was several months ago now that I first identified Canada as a no-growth country, another anti-business country. It looks like MSN is woke.
I saw this story over at Rigzone yesterday but failed to post it then. What a doofus. I completely missed the significance of this story:
Pembina Pipeline, based in Calgary, is snapping up Kinder’s Canadian assets and a cross-border pipeline in a $3.3 billion deal. For Houston-based Kinder, the deal completes an exit from a country that has frustrated more than a few companies -- from ConocoPhillips and Royal Dutch Shell to Marathon Oil.More from the article and then I'll quit:
The drumbeat of exits, rare for such a stable oil-producing country, adds an extra layer of gloom for an industry that accounts for about a fifth of Canada’s exports. The energy sector -- centered around Alberta’s oil sands -- has struggled to rebound since the 2014 crash in global oil prices, with capital spending declining for five straight years and job cuts pushing the province’s unemployment rate above 6%. Alberta is forecast to post the slowest growth of any region in Canada this year.
The situation isn’t likely to improve any time soon, with key pipelines like TC Energy Corp.’s Keystone XL and Enbridge Inc.’s expansion of its Line 3 conduit bogged down by legal challenges. The lack of pipelines has weighed on Canadian heavy crude prices for years, sending them to a record low late in 2018.Canada foreign exchange reserves at this link.
US dollar / Canadian dollar exchange rate at this link. I would look at the 10-year history to see how far Canada has fallen.
Other recent major exist from Canada:
Other recent major exits include ConocoPhillips’ $13.2 billion sale of its oil-sands and natural gas assets to Cenovus Energy Inc. in 2017, and Shell’s and Marathon’s sales of their stakes in an oil-sands project to Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. for about $10.7 billion that same year. Canadian Natural also bought Oklahoma City-based Devon Energy Corp.’s Canadian heavy oil assets this year for $2.79 billion. Norway’s Equinor ASA pulled out in 2016 after facing pressure at home to invest in lower-emission projects.
Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- August 23, 2019
Wow, there is so much news out there, it's impossible to keep up. I used to blog between the hours of 5:00 a.m. and 11:00 p.m. but it now appears I need to add a third shift, 11:00 a.m. to 4:00 a.m.
The hour from 4:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. will be reserved for reading e-mail from readers.
First, this, a story that connects so many dots, I can't even begin. Here's the headline -- Shell enters Australia power industry with a $420 million bid for ERM Power. Link here. Data points and comments:
Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, now that Mexico has put a brilliant socialist in charge, Mexico is about ready to fall into a recession, if it's not already there. No link. Story everywhere.
Of course, the US recession is also "right around the corner."
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, relationship, or travel decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Remember that story about the US to "drown the world" in oil, 2020 - 2029? After further thought, the writer of that story got it completely wrong -- got the thesis of the story or the conclusions she/he drew completely wrong. I'll get back to that later. But it's pretty obvious; I'm embarrassed I didn't realize that when I posted the story.
Global break-even prices for oil: much of this from oilprice and Bloomberg --
Going Back Home, Wilko Johnson, Roger Daltrey
The hour from 4:00 a.m. to 5:00 a.m. will be reserved for reading e-mail from readers.
First, this, a story that connects so many dots, I can't even begin. Here's the headline -- Shell enters Australia power industry with a $420 million bid for ERM Power. Link here. Data points and comments:
- this is RDS' first foray into Australia's highly competitive power sector
- a $420 million takeover offer for ERM Power Ltd, Australia's second largest energy retailer to businesses and industry
- the deal would instantly give Shell a power supplier with almost a quarter share of the commercial and industrial retail market in Australia, second only to Origin Energy in that space
- Shell will also get two gas-fired power stations
- it's all about green energy:
I think the oilprice headline is even better: Shell takes step toward becoming world's largest power utility.Shell, already one of Australia’s biggest gas producers, wants to use its global scale in oil and gas to build a power business, as the world rapidly shifts toward cleaner energy. It plans to boost annual spending on the strategy to between $2 billion and $3 billion by 2025.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, now that Mexico has put a brilliant socialist in charge, Mexico is about ready to fall into a recession, if it's not already there. No link. Story everywhere.
Of course, the US recession is also "right around the corner."
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, relationship, or travel decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Remember that story about the US to "drown the world" in oil, 2020 - 2029? After further thought, the writer of that story got it completely wrong -- got the thesis of the story or the conclusions she/he drew completely wrong. I'll get back to that later. But it's pretty obvious; I'm embarrassed I didn't realize that when I posted the story.
Global break-even prices for oil: much of this from oilprice and Bloomberg --
- Russia budget, 2019: Russia's budget is based on an average price of $40/bbl
- Saudi Arabia budget, 2019: needs $80 - $85/bbl to break even this year
- Russia won't let oil price rise that high ($80 - $85) -- that price would weaken demand for its own product which accounts for 40% of its national budget
- Putin feels current Brent Crude at $60 - $65, where it currently trades, as just about right
- Russia says its breakeven price for Urals Crude is $49.20, the lowest break-even price in over a decade; Urals Crude, Russia's key
- the US? as far as I'm concerned, $55 is at the low end of the sweet spot for price of WTI; I'm thinking $60 could be quite bullish -- the actual number is less important than the trend
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