Random Update Of Huge WPX Behr Well In Reunion Bay -- January 28, 2019

This page will not be updated. Another huge Bakken well. This well is in Reunion Bay. Folks following the blog and particularly the Reunion Bay oil field know that this oil field is now receiving a lot of attention. I could give a lot of examples, but this is the best, most recent example, from the agenda of the hearing dockets for February, 2019, next month. These are cases, not permits:

• 27304, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, amend, 10 wells on a 1600-acre unit; McKenzie, Mountrail
• 27305, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, amend, 9 wells on a 1280-acre unit; Mountrail
• 27306, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, amend, 2 wells on each of two 2560-acre units; Dunn, Mountrail
• 27307, MRO, Reunion Bay-Bakken, amend, 8 wells on each of two 1280-acre units; Dunn, Mountrail

The well, a Three Forks 1st bench well, with moderate amount of sand:

• 31859, 2,776, WPX, Behr 19-18HUL, Reunion Bay, Three Forks, 50 stages; 8.4 million lbs, t7/18; cum 191K 11/18; huge well, 100K in less than 2 months;

Total production to date, less than five full months of production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	34023	33800	25888	35441	31649	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	22	24106	24027	18572	24974	20150	2141
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	32284	32275	27819	33446	27532	2310
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	45198	45259	42606	46825	26805	15026
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	55349	55212	67084	57341	1018	50401
BAKKEN	6-2018	12	0	0	1	0	0	0

Oh-Oh -- January 28, 2019

Polar vortex:

What's another trillion or two among (socialist) friends ... when it's other people's money?

 

From CNN:

A slowdown in China is hurting industrial equipment giant Caterpillar — and investors aren't happy.

Caterpillar reported fourth-quarter earnings Monday morning that missed Wall Street's forecasts. The company said sales in its Asia/Pacific unit were down 4% from a year ago, primarily "due to lower demand in China." It was Caterpillar's biggest earnings miss in 10 years, according to research firm Bespoke Investment Group.

Caterpillar issued an earnings outlook for 2019 that was also lower than Wall Street forecasts. 

Shares of Caterpillar fell 5% in premarket trading and the broader market tumbled as well. Futures were already pointing to a loss at the opening bell but they fell further after Caterpillar, which is a Dow component, reported results.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what your read here or think you may have read here.

The Polar Vortex Hits The Bakken -- Last Night -- January 28, 2019

From The Williston Herald:

The North Dakota Department of Transportation and North Dakota Highway Patrol issued a No Travel Advisory at 6 p.m. Sunday, Jan. 27, that includes Williston.

From the NDDOT:

The North Dakota Department of Transportation (NDDOT) along with the North Dakota Highway Patrol (NDHP) have extended the No Travel Advisory to northern North Dakota due to freezing rain, snow accumulations, and blowing snow causing hazardous travel conditions, slippery roads, and reduced visibility. Cities included in the No Travel Advisory are Williston, Minot, Devils Lake, Grand Forks, and surrounding areas. A No Travel Advisory means conditions are such that motorists should not travel in these areas.

Weather this morning, Tuesday, January 28, 2019:

• 18 degrees with a wind child of minus five degrees
• looks like it will a high of minus six degrees tomorrow during the day with a wind chill of minus 22 degrees
• Tuesday night it will hit a low of minus17degrees, with apparently no wind because the wind chill will also be minus 17 degrees
• by Friday, it will be above freezing, hitting a high of 37 degrees, or short-sleeve weather for the roughnecks

In the winter of 1965 - 1966 I would have been fourteen years old, a freshman in high school, or a ninth grader at Junior High School. I honestly forget if I was the high school or the junior high school in ninth grade but I think it would have been junior high school. I remember very, very clearly my eighth grade year at Junior High School, with Mr Thue. And I remember sitting in study hall right after the bell rang after lunch on November 22, 1963. I was sitting in study hall in the far, far right row, in the third seat back, or thereabouts. The editor of the junior high newspaper would have been a few seats to my left and behind me.

I do not recall January 29, 1966, being any colder than any other winter in North Dakota. If I was at the middle school (Junior High School), I would have been given a ride to school. If I was at the high school, I would have walked the six blocks.

I do remember walking  home from high school many nights after wrestling during the winters of 1966-1967 and 1967 - 1968. It would be well after dark, perhaps around 7:30 p.m. or so, and it could be twenty or thirty degrees below zero, absolutely calm, and an incredibly clear sky. The little bit of snow on the ground on the path I would walk was very, very crisp. I can still hear the crunchiness. I would get lost in my thoughts walking home, sometimes walking even more slowly to enjoy the freedom of being alone. I occasionally saw the aurora borealis.

I remember a particularly incredible aurora borealis show one of those nights. I was walking up 11th Street West and 6th Avenue West where I would have turned right to head home. I have no idea where I had been -- that was a roundabout way from the high school to get home. Whatever. All I remember is how beautiful the evening was, probably ten degrees below zero, no wind, and so incredibly calm. And no traffic. Had there been traffic, it is likely someone would have stopped and asked if I needed a ride. And the crunchiness of the snow.

There was no hurry to get home. I did not eat dinner/supper during wrestling seasons. I generally had a can of Tab and by the end of the week I was "sucking" on lemons to curb my thirst. I had to get down to my wrestling weight of 95 pounds for the weigh-in for the Friday night wrestling match or the Saturday wrestling tournament. My natural weight was 115 pounds and that was a very, very skinny 115 pounds. By February, we were allowed an extra three pounds, or 98 pounds for the 95-pound weight class.

After the wrestling match or the tournament, I would get home late at night, after everyone in the family was already in bed. My mother would always have a steak dinner warming on the stove for me when I arrived home on that Friday or Saturday night. It was the only night of the week I had a real dinner. We did not have much money in those days, but somehow my mom found the money to get me a steak.

All of that for this:

For The Archives -- "That" WSJ Article -- January 28, 2019

Re-posting for the archives, the argument that that Permian is not / will not produce as much as some folks have said it will:

• from the blog, January 2, 2019
• the big sleep, January 19, 2019
• fracking's secret problem -- oil wells are not producing as much as forecast, WSJ, January 2, 2019

The headline caught folks' attention, but look at the data:

Two-thirds of projections made by the fracking companies between 2014 and 2017 in America’s four hottest drilling regions appear to have been overly optimistic, according to the analysis of some 16,000 wells operated by 29 of the biggest producers in oil basins in Texas and North Dakota.

Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas, according to the analysis of data from Rystad Energy AS, an energy consulting firm. That is the equivalent of almost one billion barrels of oil and gas over 30 years, worth more than $30 billion at current prices. Some companies are off track by more than 50% in certain regions. 

The headline is based on this finding:

Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, but even so, missing targets by 10% in unconventional oil is hardly news.

Over thirty years, the article says, that would be worth more than $30 billion at current prices. Wow, over sixty years, the figure would be $60 billion. Over ninety years, $90 billion. Anybody want to do the calculations for $180 billion? LOL.

Meanwhile, the EURs in the Bakken have increased from 350,000 bbls in the Bakken at the beginning of the boom to 1.1 million bbls in Tier 1 sites. Based on the increase in EURs across the Williston Basin, the number of Tier 1 sites is increasing. One of many examples: MRO and the company's Ajax area of the Williston Basin.

Again, this is simply for the archives, since I'm sure the issue will come up again.

Meanwhile, from just earlier this month:

One year ago -- repeating, one year ago, the EIA saw American crude oil production averaging just less than 12 million bopd in 2042 -- 24 years from now (from 2018) -- this year, the EIA says "Never mind."

The US will likely produce 14 million bopd in 2020 -- next year. 

A year ago, January, 2018, the EIA forecast that the US would average 11.95 million bbls by 2042. By 2042. That's 20+ years from now. Now, one year later, January, 2019, the EIA forecasts the US will hit 14 billion bopd in 2022, and will top out at 14.53 million bopd in 2031. 

January 28, 2019, T+26 -- January 28, 2019

State of the Union address, 2019: original invite for tomorrow, Tuesday, January 29, 2019. President Pelosi has said she has not yet decided whether it will go on as scheduled. 

NPR: North Dakota grows into its ongoing oil boom. I'm sure I posted this earlier. But I happened to see it again last night. It was originally posted by NPR on November 23, 2018.

Reaching this point has had its challenges. Five years ago many in these rural oil fields were talking about rising crime, including prostitution and illegal drugs. Another complaint was traffic jams from all the pick-up and tanker trucks traveling back and forth to the thousands of new wells that were drilled.

But visit Watford City now and the subject of crime doesn't really come up. The town feels less frantic. After years of growing pains, the region has spent a lot of money upgrading infrastructure to accommodate the influx of people drawn by the oil boom. A bypass around town has eased traffic on the main street.

Cabot Oil & Gas, Michael Fitzsimmons. Link here.

• Cabot will see a significant uptick in both volumes and realized pricing, now that the Atlantic Sunrise pipeline is online
• Previous guidance for $200 million in FCF generation in Q4 (an estimated $0.46/share) is likely to be met (or exceeded) for a number of reasons
• Long-term supply contracts to Cove Point LNG, as well as exclusive supply contracts with two electric power plants, have reduced risk
• As a result, I [Fitzsimmons] increase my price target from $30 to $31. That implies a near 20% increase from Friday's close

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

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Notes to the Granddaughters

Getting ready for rock climbing. Sophia now has her own climbing shoes and her own harness. Rental is $10/session; buying outright: $50.

On another note, I missed this one. I ran across it looking for something else.

Your great-grandfather made the "world news."

https://article.wn.com/view/2018/05/24/Carl_Oksol_96/