It Never Quits -- Another Pipeline Connector In The Bakken -- MDU -- January 25, 2019

North Bakken Expansion Project:

• pipeline connector: natural gas connector from western North Dakota to interconnection point with Northern Border Pipeline
• MDU's WBI Enercy, Inc
• 67 miles of new pipeline 
• 20-inch diameter
• wag: at $1 million /mile = $67 million
• MDU's press release: $220 million 
• will start near Tioga, ND
• new connection with NBP in McKenzie County, ND
• Tioga is in Williams County
• this means that the pipeline will have to cross the river
• that probably explains the higher cost 
• initial phase: 200 millio cfpd)
• could expand to 375 million cfpd (65,000 boepd) if demand exists
• note: WBI Energy plans to utilize the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's National Environmental Policy Act pre-filing process for the North Bakken Expansion Project and will begin that process by late in the first quarter of 2019.

From wiki:

Northern Border Pipeline is a natural gas pipeline which brings gas from Canada through Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa into the Chicago area. It is owned by TC PipeLines, LP and ONEOK Partners and is operated by TC PipeLines, LP . Its FERC code is 89.

Website and map here.

Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? -- January 25, 2019 -- The EIA: Never Mind

This is simply amazing.

One year ago -- repeating, one year ago, the EIA saw American crude oil production averaging just less than 12 million bopd in 2042 -- 24 years ago -- this year, the EIA says "Never mind."

The US will likely produce 14 million bopd in 2020 -- next year.

So, one year -- how far were those projections off-base? On the other hand we do know that the average global temperature will be 2.7 degrees warmer one hundred years from now. And according to Occasional-Cortex we have only twelve years to act.

Speaking of Occasional-Cortex, as a public service announcement /warning for readers in Iowa:

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The Book Page

I can't say enough about The Campaigns of Alexander: The Landmark Arrian, edited by James Romm, c. 2010, soft cover, $21.

Unlike many books in which the appendices are unremarkable, the appendices in this book are incredible. Each appendix written by a different authority (most write more than one essay). All are very readable, and all are very short, running about three to four pages. I've not read much on Alexander the Great, but it seems I would be hard-pressed to find a better book on the subject than this book.

Homer, the Bible, Shakespeare. Definitely. Arrian? Perhaps.

The appendices:

• Arrian's Sources and Reliability, James Romm, Bard College
• Greek and Macedonian Ethnicity, Eugene N. Borza, The Pennsylvania State University
• Alexander the Man (and God?), Richard Stoneman, University of Exeter
• Alexander's Inner Circle, Waldemar Heckel, University of Calgary; James Romm, Bard College
• Money and Finance in the Campaigns of Alexander, Frank L. Holt, University of Houston
• The Persian Empire and Alexander, Richard Stoneman, University of Exeter
• Alexander at Persepolis, Eugene N. Borza, The Pennsylvania State University
• Alexander in Central Asia, Frank L. Holt, University of Houston
• The Indian Campaign, Richard Stoneman, University of Exeter
• Alexander's Policy of Perso-Macedonian Fusion, James Romm, Bard College
• The Alexander Romance,  Richard Stoneman, University of Exeter
• Alexander and the Greeks, James Romm, Bard College
• Alexander's Geographic Notions, James Romm, Bard College
• Alexander's Death: A Medical Analysis, Eugene N. Borza, The Pennsylvania State University
• Alexander's Death: The Poisoning Rumors, A. B. Bosworth, Macquarie University
• The Royal Macedonian Tombs at Aigeai, Eugene N. Borza, The Pennsylvania State University
• Arrian's Life and Works, James Romm, Bard College 
• Alexander's Army and Military Leadership

Go West, Young Woman! -- January 25, 2019

Re-posting.

US crude oil production to keep setting records until 2027: EIA -- link here. Data points:

• US crude oil production will keep setting annual records until 2027
• US crude oil production will remain higher than 14 million bpd through 2040
• why? continuously growing shale production
• the US has been a net energy importer since 1953, but continued growth in petroleum and natural gas exports results in the US becoming a net energy exporter by 2020 in all scenarios

Embedded in the link above is another link that takes you to an EIA pdf. I went through all eighty-three slides; most of the slides had more than one graphic (generally two). This was the one graphic that caught my attention:

Another interesting graphic:

Of all the regions, the most "diverse" is clearly that region identified as "Mountain." For me, it's a better graphic identifying major metropolitan areas rather than "regional identifiers."

 

Pad Drilling -- Update -- January 25, 2019

Re-posting. This is a must-read for those interested in the Bakken.

RBN Energy: part 2, will large-scale pad drilling buoy crude output?  An incredibly good article. I was surprised that the Bakken was not mentioned, unless I missed it.

When crude oil prices crashed in the second half of 2014 and 2015, producers survived by becoming leaner and more efficient. That transition included drastic reductions in the rates paid to services companies while wringing ever more oil and gas out of each well and, in the process, permanently altering the economics of drilling and completion. This year, producers are again facing a lower-price environment; since early October (2018), crude prices have dropped more than 30%. In the current, more conservative investment environment, can producers do it again? Can additional value be squeezed out with bigger well pads and longer laterals? Today, we continue a series exploring the benefits and risks of these highly concentrated and highly complicated operations. 

Earlier we explored the origins of pad drilling and the factors that catalyzed its widespread adoption across the oil patch. By splitting the substantial infrastructure, logistical, and rig-mobilization costs among multiple wells, pad drilling helped improve efficiency the last time crude prices dropped. That blog’s focus was on Northeast gas producers. Now we turn our attention to the crude-focused Permian. We’ll start with a look at a “mega-pad” with more than 60 wells and a couple of somewhat smaller pads, then conclude with a high-level analysis of the pros and cons of “going big.”

Archived. Episode 1 was also archived.

It seems the writer hints at the halo effect but not fully developed. 

Peak Oil? Peak Demand? Not Anytime Soon -- January 25, 2019

How cold does it get in North Dakota?


Three dog night. Decades ago I was visiting Regina. I mentioned to my hosts how cold it was. They said it was a "three-dog night." That goat in the video above: "one is the loneliest number." And, yes, I think I've watched that video a dozen times.


One Is The Loneliest Number, Three Dog Night
Davis Refinery: air permit upheld by district court. .

US crude oil production to keep setting records until 2027: EIA -- link here. Data points:

• US crude oil production will keep setting annual records until 2027
• US crude oil production will remain higher than 14 million bpd through 2040
• why? continuously growing shale production
• the US has been a net energy importer since 1953, but continued growth in petroleum and natural gas exports results in the US becoming a net energy exporter by 2020 in all scenarios

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today: Friday, January 25, 2019

• 35034, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9H, Heart Butte, no production data,
• 30052, SI/NC, WPX, Good Voice 34-27HF, Spotted Horn, no production data,

Active rigs:

$53.19	1/25/2019	01/25/2018	01/25/2017	01/25/2016	01/25/2015
Active Rigs	64	56	38	48	157

RBN Energy: part 2, will large-scale pad drilling buoy crude output?  An incredibly good article. I was surprised that the Bakken was not mentioned, unless I missed it.

When crude oil prices crashed in the second half of 2014 and 2015, producers survived by becoming leaner and more efficient. That transition included drastic reductions in the rates paid to services companies while wringing ever more oil and gas out of each well and, in the process, permanently altering the economics of drilling and completion. This year, producers are again facing a lower-price environment; since early October (2018), crude prices have dropped more than 30%. In the current, more conservative investment environment, can producers do it again? Can additional value be squeezed out with bigger well pads and longer laterals? Today, we continue a series exploring the benefits and risks of these highly concentrated and highly complicated operations. 

Earlier we explored the origins of pad drilling and the factors that catalyzed its widespread adoption across the oil patch. By splitting the substantial infrastructure, logistical, and rig-mobilization costs among multiple wells, pad drilling helped improve efficiency the last time crude prices dropped. That blog’s focus was on Northeast gas producers. Now we turn our attention to the crude-focused Permian. We’ll start with a look at a “mega-pad” with more than 60 wells and a couple of somewhat smaller pads, then conclude with a high-level analysis of the pros and cons of “going big.”

Archived.