Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Re-Posting: US Refiners Post Record Crude Oil Processing In CY18

In all the clutter this morning, worth re-posting:

RBN Energy: making America great again! US refiners processed record crude oil volumes in 2018.
Record runs allowed U.S. refiners to continue a multiyear streak of strong margins in 2018 despite higher crude prices during the first three quarters and a weaker fourth quarter after product prices tanked along with crude in October. While rising crude prices threatened refinery margins, a high Brent premium over domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) kept feedstock prices for U.S. refiners lower than their international rivals. The availability of discounted Canadian crude also helped produce stellar returns for Midwest, Rockies and Gulf Coast refiners that are configured to process heavy crude. Product prices only weakened in the fourth quarter when gasoline inventories began to rise. Today, we highlight major trends in the U.S. refining sector during 2018 and looks forward to 2019.
U.S. refiners processed record volumes of crude in 2018. After processing an average 16.6 MMb/d of crude in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. refiners upped their game to input an all-time high of about 17 MMb/d in 2018. Increased throughput in 2018 came with minimal additions to operable capacity and represents an annual average utilization rate just above 93% based on weekly EIA data. The 2018 refinery input levels were consistently above the prior 10-year average.
China refiners also broke records in 2018.

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The Book Page 

The Roman Empire and the Indian Ocean: The Ancient World Economy & The Kingdoms of Africa, Arabia & India, Raoul McLaughlin, c. 2014, 2018

A denarius has about 0.158733 ounces of silver. At $10/ounce, a denarius is worth about $1.59, so let's say $1.50/Roman silver denarius. Perhaps one could say the Roman silver denarius was a "silver dollar" at face value.

A gold aureus ad about 8 grams of gold, or 0.282192 ounces of gold. At $1,200/ounce of gold, a gold aureus was worth about  $338, so let's say about $350.

$350 / $1.50 = 233
$1,200  / $10 = 120

Conversion:
  • 25 silver denarii = 1 gold aureus
Today:
  • 70 American Silver Eagles (BU) at $20 each = one Krugerrand (BU) at $1,400 each
The book deals with one fundamental question: how did the Roman Empire function, and, in particular, how did it pay for its military costs?

What I am interested in: connecting the dots of pagan Roman rites, Saudi Arabia, and Christian myths and legends.

The final civil war of the Roman Republic was fought in 31 BC when the Roman general Octavian, adopted son of Julius Caesar, declared war on the Egyptian Queen Cleopatra (yes, she really was a real person) and her consort Mark Antony.

Cleopatra fled back to Egypt when it appeared that Mark was going to lose bigley. He did. The Romans annexed Egypt and the rest is history, as they say.

Egypt introduced a quarter-rate tax on trade between the eastern Mediterranean and the Far East. One-fourth of all trade was returned to Rome. Rome used that to money to fund the first professional army in the history of mankind.

All goods sent to the Egyptian Red Sea ports at that time had to stop at Coptos/Qift.

From the net:
Koptos was an important station on the way from the Nile valley over desert routes to the Red Sea ports.
One of these ports was Myos Homos, which was relatively close to Koptos.
However, the Red Sea has tempestuous and dangerous currents and air flows, and more southerly ports were preferred. With the foundation by Ptolemy II of the Red Sea port Berenike about 255 BC Koptos became especially important.
The desert route to Berenike started normally at Edfu, but with the Theban rebellion about 207/206 BC the town was no longer part of the Ptolemaic empire, and the caravans may have had to start at Koptos instead.
Berenike is mentioned in ancient literature as the port for the import of African elephants, which were needed for warfare. However, it was also important for the trade with India and Arabia.
Koptos was also the starting point for expedition to several quarries, which were very important especially for the Romans. 
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Gusty Winds Over The Weekend

T+20; January 22, 2019 , Part 3 -- NOG Provides Update

Bakken operators are tracked here. But, as noted, not always updated. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or anything you think you may have read here.

NOG: a proxy for the Bakken.

Press release.
  • repurchase program: 12.0 million shares since October 1, 2018; almost 5 million shares in CY19 through January 21, 2019
  • 4Q18 crude oil production: expected to be in the upper half of prior guidance of 35,000 - 36,000 boepd despite constraints
  • 2019 hedges: $63/bbl
  • completions in line with expectations
  • NOG added 7.7 net wells to production in 4Q18 (exactly 25% of full year addition)
  • CY2018: 30.8 net wells brought to production 
  • expects 4Q18 differential will be between $9.00 and $10.00 per bbl
  • 2018 differential: modestly (sic) above the high end of prior guidance of $4.76 - $5.75
  • differentials in 1Q19 have improved substantially from 4Q18
  • 4Q18 LOE were better than anticipated: as a result, full year 2018 average LOE is now expected to be slightly below the low end of prior guidance of $7.50 to $7.75/per bbl
  • CY2019: NOG anticipates strong cash flow from operations; will exceed the company's CAPEX budget
  • company strategy: the company acquired approximately 1.0 net producing well, 3.3 net wells in process and 8,465 net acres in the fourth quarter and first few weeks of January at an average price of $1,785 per acre. As the natural consolidator of non-operated working interests in the Williston Basin, Northern believes this trend will disproportionately benefit the company.

T+20; January 22, 2019 , Part 2-- Despite Videos, Most Airport Wait Times Were Within TSA Standards

SOTU: one week from today. The one thing we all know: Ruth Bader Ginsburg won't be in attendance. She (might) watch from home. More likely, her aides will read the transcript.

Day 32 of the partial government shutdown.

Tipping point: the other day I posted that 15% was the tipping point. That's the percent of TSA screeners calling in sick that will signal a "tipping point." There is a quick and very interesting solution to the TSA problem, by the way, but I will let folks think about it. Hint: free market capitalism. Back to the TSA news:
  • Unscheduled absences of airport security screeners reached a record 10 percent on Sunday 
  • the TSA has called up National Deployment Officers to operate checkpoints as more screeners are absent
  • most airport wait times were within TSA standards
  • comment: but that was over a weekend in which 4,500+ flights were canceled due to weather. We'll have a better idea  how things go today -- first day back to work after a long 3-day weekend. 
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I Can See Clearly Now



I Can See Clearly Now, Johnny Nash

Sixteen Wells Will Be Reported Out Today -- January 22, 2019

Two gazillion unemployed males? You think China ready to deal? China's economy grew 6.6% in 2018, the lowest pace in two years. Link here.  

Open book test: a written examination during which an examinee is permitted to consult references to answer questions calling for organization, analysis, or judgment, rather than memorization.

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Back to the Bakken

NOG: rising sharply.


Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Wells coming off the confidential list today --

Tuesday, January 22, 2019
34879, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-4H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34878, conf, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-5H, Haystack Butte, producing, 
34613, conf, WPX, Benson 3HC, Squaw Creek, no production data, 
34476, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 2-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well, 
34475, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Laura Sadowsky 3-1-36H-142-96, Manning, an okay well,
34197, conf, CLR, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, producing, but not much,
33643, conf, CLR, Ransom 5-30H2, Elidah, producing, albeit not much,
23939, conf, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10E, Heart Butte, 

Monday, January 21, 2019
34885, drl, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10B, Heart Butte;
34876, 1,962, Newfield, Berg Federal 149-97-30-31-7H,  Haystack Butte, t11/18; cum 11K after 8 days extrapolates to 42K over 30 days;
33779, 281, Oasis, Crane Federal 5300 14-27 3B, Willow Creek, 50 stages; 11 million lbs, t7/18; cum 89K 11/18;

Sunday, January 20, 2019
32926, SI/NC, BR, Chuckwagon 31-15TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
23940, drl, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is;

Saturday, January 19, 2019
34493, 939, Nine Point Energy, Hovde 150-100-6-7-2H, Spring Creek, 60 stages, 8 million lbs, t8/18; cum 100K 11/18;
33971, 2,631, Enerplus, Zinc 147-93-09D-04H, Moccasin Creek, 41 stages; 13.8 million lbs; a huge well, the Enerplus heavy metal pad is tracked here; t7/18; cum 146K 11/8;
23937, drl, XTO, FBIR Yellowwolf 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is;

Active rigs:


$53.221/22/201901/22/201801/22/201701/22/201601/22/2015
Active Rigs67583847159

RBN Energy: making America great again! US refiners processed record crude oil volumes in 2018.
Record runs allowed U.S. refiners to continue a multiyear streak of strong margins in 2018 despite higher crude prices during the first three quarters and a weaker fourth quarter after product prices tanked along with crude in October. While rising crude prices threatened refinery margins, a high Brent premium over domestic benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) kept feedstock prices for U.S. refiners lower than their international rivals. The availability of discounted Canadian crude also helped produce stellar returns for Midwest, Rockies and Gulf Coast refiners that are configured to process heavy crude. Product prices only weakened in the fourth quarter when gasoline inventories began to rise. Today, we highlight major trends in the U.S. refining sector during 2018 and looks forward to 2019.
U.S. refiners processed record volumes of crude in 2018. After processing an average 16.6 MMb/d of crude in 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. refiners upped their game to input an all-time high of about 17 MMb/d in 2018. Increased throughput in 2018 came with minimal additions to operable capacity and represents an annual average utilization rate just above 93% based on weekly EIA data. The 2018 refinery input levels were consistently above the prior 10-year average.

T+20; January 22, 2019 , Part 1 -- New England Burning Oil At A Rapid Clip To Stay Ahead Of The Curve

ISO New England: oil (10%); coal (%); renewables (10% and trending down during peak demand); link here -- I think this is the highest I've seen oil burning so far during Winter Storm Harper; Winter Storm Indra to follow; Watertown, MA, was 25 degrees below zero this morning (?) with wind chill at -40 degrees. At -40 degrees, by the way, Celsius = Fahrenheit.


Blackouts? Remarkably I'm not seeing much in the national news regarding blackouts. If accurate, the utilities deserve a huge shout-out -- keeping ahead of all of this. I'm not even hearing of any massive forest fires in Maine due to sparking transmission wires. Just saying. 

The good news: this weather will only last a few weeks.

The bad news: the world will end in twelve years, if we don't "attack" climate change -- Occasional Cortex -- let's see if she takes out a 30-year mortgage on a house. Link here. She and I are watching two different movies. Racial reparations back on the table. Immoral: our system allows billionaires to exist. Wow, Nancy has her hands full.

Davos, link here.


How much you wanna bet we see Occasional-Cortex in Davox next year? Wow, I hope she runs for president in 2020. The majority of her supporters don't know she is not eligible to serve; and the rest don't care.