Monday, January 21, 2019

Risk-Based Data Management System -- North Dakota -- Second State To Implement -- January 21, 2019

It's getting pretty cold when New England is burning more oil than coal, and electricity is surging to $150/MWh. Link here. At 8%, oil is now accounting for almost as much electricity as renewable energy (9%). Winter Storm Harper coming to an end; 4:31 p.m. January 21, 2019. In the big scheme of things it appears Harper was hyped based on media coverage (or should we say lack of media coverage) on Martin Luther King's day. Later: on ABC Nightly News earlier this evening, the on-scene reporter was interviewing people on the street in NYC where "they" said it was freezing. The woman said she had never been so cold. She had a winter coat and scarf on, but no gloves. Are you kidding? Coldest she has ever seen ... and ... and gloves, no mittens. And her hands looked perfectly fine; not red, nothing to suggest she was "freezing." Also, interestingly enough, one saw no "breath" (i.e., water vapor) from any of the people interviewing or being interviewed). It did not look all that cold, at least to someone who grew up in North Dakota. The background showed no significant snow drifts and the traffic was moving fine.

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Now, Back To The Bakken

To come back to these later: risk-based data management system. 
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What We Will Be Talking About In February

Thinking out loud:
  • does it make sense that the US Coast Guard is being paid, but not TSA?
  • is "the Wall" issue really a "right-sizing Federal government" issue?
"The Wall":
  • Trump talks about a physical wall
  • failure to negotiate has resulted in a more impenetrable "real" wall for all immigrants

20 - 70 Years Of Drilling Left In The Bakken -- January 21, 2019

From NDIC's annual update to the North Dakota state legislature, slide #13 of 42.


From same source, slide #21 of 42:


Oh-Oh! -- January 21, 2019 -- "Quebec, We Have A Problem"

Updates

Later, 9:27 p.m. Central Time: natural gas at 42%; nuclear at 26%; renewables at 11%; oil at 9%; and, coal at 6%. Hydroelectricity at 6%. If it weren't for coal and oil .... and, oh, by the way, ISO New England is still on track to decommission another nuclear plant (or two). 

Later, 4:22 p.m. Central Time: it's now almost dinner-time in New England, 5:22 p.m. And at 8%, oil accounts for almost as much electricity as renewable energy (9%). Most interesting is the small amount provided by hydroelectricity from Canada. Electricity is approaching $200/MWh. Link here:


Later, 1:14 p.m. Central Time: it has to be bad when ISO New England is burning more oil than coal:




Original Post 

If this were not a holiday, New England would be experiencing rolling blackouts or brownouts -- it would not be a pretty picture.

I don't recall how long it's been since I've seen prices in ISO New England go from green to yellow.

Not only are they burning coal (5%) but they are now burning oil (5%).

On top of this, hydro from Quebec may become a huge issue. See story below the ISO New England graphs.

Winter Storm Indra is right behind Winter Storm Harper.

Tuesday could be very, very interesting.

And yes, the grid spiked to nearly $200/MWh.  Burning coal, oil, and wood chips, I suppose. The big story is that renewables continue to flatline.



From iceagenow: it's even too cold in Quebec --


When does "weather" become "climate." Ever since 1994, it seems, there have been more reports of "mini-ice-age" than "global warming." Let's see .... almost 25 years. Whatever.

From iceacenow:


Without question, the scientific articles and the reporting by skeptics certainly do a much better job of persuasion than the AGW folks.

On another note: wow, I'm glad the US did not attend Davos this year. A bunch of elites telling us how to live within a smaller carbon footprint. President Trump seems to be one of the few who has seen through the hypocrisy.

By the way, it's well proven that hypocrisy is of no use in "persuasion" or debates. I think Scott Adams noted that.

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Coins

A huge collectible in the US military were "unit" coins. For the USAF, the units were squadrons, groups, and wings. They each had their own coin. One always carried your unit's coin. You show up at the bar and someone throws down a coin. If you don't throw down your own unit coin, you buy drinks for the house.

I really had not paid attention to such coins in a long, long time.

While visiting Los Alamos earlier this month, these coins popped up again.

These are the Hans Bethe coins, fairly rare. I got one (free). Our middle granddaughter also got a free Hans Bethe coin but she did one better. She got an ever rarer Los Alamos coin. I need to get a photo of her coin.

This is the Hans Bethe coin:


Gasoline To Other Forms Of Transportation Energy -- A Converstion Table


Monday, Martin Luther King Day, Much Closed -- January 21, 2019, T+19

Hot in Australia: $10,000/ MWh for air conditioning in Australia later today. Australia has taken the lead in renewable energy.

Link here for the graphs.

This link will take you to similar graphs last summer.

The folks over at Jo Nova love to talk about this.

This was a big, big issue last year for the Australians but it looks like nothing has happened. Australia has lots and lots of coal, natural gas, and sunshine.

In Victoria: $10,000/MWh to air condition one's house later today.


In South Australia, $10,500/MWh to air condition one's house later today.

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Softball

Day 31 of the partial government shutdown, which is beginning to look more and more like an airport issue. I haven't heard much about the national parks being closed since the early days of the shutdown. 

On another note, even Chris thinks Shelosi has thrown the Dreamers under the bus.

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A Note for the Granddaughters

Our middle granddaughter is playing in a national soccer tournament in Las Vegas, Nevada, over the three-day weekend.

Yesterday morning, Olivia scored the winning goal for her team. In fact, Olivia's goal was the only goal of the game. The teams were very evenly matched. With about four minutes left to play, Olivia took shot on goal. The ball was deflected, but Olivia followed it in and scored. Olivia is a mid-fielder, not a striker or a forward making her goal all that more impressive.

I got word overnight that her team won their evening game, 1 - 0, and will now advance to semi-finals this morning.

Pretty exciting.