Bias: sometime ago I suggested to a reader that that stock market volatility is very, very suspicious. I think I may have even mentioned that on the blog. I understand that there can be wild gyrations on the stock market, bu they usually seem to be somewhat explainable. In this case, nothing explains the wild gyrations. But I digress. This is what I find very strange. How do we go from talking about 4% to 6% GDP growth to talk of a recession in less than six months. Perhaps this is why. See this link.
EPA preparing to shut down; due to "partial government shutdown." Link here.
Marathon Petroleum donates $35,000 to Mandan, ND, public schools. From The Bismarck Tribune. Donation to support a welding and agriculture mechanics program at Mandan High School.
Disconnect: it was my understanding that gold and oil were inflation-hedge investments. Gold is trading at $1,200 -- well off it's recent high of $1,800 and trending lower. And oil? Well, well all know that story.
LNG import records set by China: link here. Data points:
- cold weather and China's gasification efforts pushed LNG imports to a record high
- NE Asia: China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea
- 20.5 million tons since the start of December
- previous record set last January, 2018: 19.5 millions tons
- China: 6.5 million tons, up 6% from November
- China: November, 2018, vs November, 2017, y-o-y increase of almost 50%
- China: first 11 months of this year: LNG increased by 44% year-over-year
- China: on course to easily beat the full-year LNG import record of 38 million tons (2017)
- the approaching 2019 will be the most significant year ever for the U.S. liquefied natural gas export business
- global gas demand will continue to soar, perhaps surpassing oil to become the world's main fuel within 10 years
- Next year really is: "the beginning of the boom."
The U.S. is poised to triple export capacity to around 10 Bcf/d by the end of next year, and we could be on our way to be the world's largest exporter before 2025. And in a "second wave" of activity, federal regulators will decide the fate of an additional 13 pending projects by the end of 2019.
For an industry that just started in February 2016, U.S. LNG has quickly been extending to all corners of the globe. Yet, neighbor and friend Mexico has received 20% of all U.S. LNG exports, with South Korea second at 19%. At some point though, Mexico's primary position will slide because the country wants to produce more of its own gas and build more pipelines to gain greater access to cheaper U.S. piped gas. For example, piped U.S. supply to Mexico has averaged $3.18 per MMBtu so far this year, compared to $4.59 for U.S. LNG to Mexico.
- last year (2017)
- a record $598 billion dollars — up $33 billion from last year; up 6%
- this year (2018)
- a record $850 billion dollars — up $252 billion from last year; up 42%.
