ONEOK 3Q18 Earnings

Link here, press release, OKE:

• operating income jumps 40%
• adjusted EBITDA jumps 28%
• guidance raised
• results jumped on higher volumes in Williston Basin and STACK/SCOOP
• income: 75 cents vs 43 cents yoy
• income, nine months, almost doubled yoy
• note CAPEX: $694 million 3Q18 vs $135 million 3Q17

Zacks estimates, here:

• earnings: 74 cents, and that was a recent "bump"

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Two Entirely Different Companies

DNR vs NOG

• both are currently active in North Dakota
• one is a pure play tight oil
• one was mostly seen as an EOR (CO2 injection) but now has sizeable position in Eagle Ford
• neither pays a dividend
• both trading under $4

earnings for DNR:

Denbury Resources Inc. is estimated to report earnings on 11/06/2018. The upcoming earnings date is derived from an algorithm based on a company's historical reporting dates.Our vendor, Zacks Investment Research, might revise this date in the future, once the company announces the actual earnings date. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 4 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.11. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.04.

earnings for NOG:

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. is expected* to report earnings on 11/08/2018 after market close. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Sep 2018. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 6 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.11. The reported EPS for the same quarter last year was $0.04.

DNR

• trading at $3.36
• 52-week range: $1.13 - $6.75
• market cap: $1.5 billion
• p/e: 7.3
• enterprise value: $4.92 billion
• total cash: $116K
• total debt: $2.8 billion 

NOG

• trading at $2.92
• 52-week range: $0.72 - $4.49
• market cap: $1.12 billion
• p/e: n/a
• enterprise value: $1.6 billion
• total cash: $201 million
• total debt: $845 million 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

US Oil Exports -- October 30, 2018

Graphic (link here): in thousands of bbls/day, US crude oil exports --



Chart (link here): in thousands of bbls/day, US crude oil exports --

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News and Updates

November 3, 2018: Iranian sanctions kick in. 

October 30, 2018: historical -- Mexico takes first delivery of Bakken oil.

May, 2018: US sets record -- 2 million bopd exported.

2018: western Canadian sands remain landlocked; Trans Mountain Expansion sidelined; WCS selling at $45 discount to WTI;

Trump Prevails: Iraq Agrees To Honor Iranian Sanctions -- October 30, 2018

Yesterday, when it was being reported that Iraq expected a exemption from the Iranian sanction, I wrote :

Iran sanctions: Iraq expects exemption. Which, of course, makes no sense. Trump calls out Germany for buying natural gas from Russia, and then Iraq expects exemption for helping Iran? The swamp.

Today: Iraq gives into President Trump ... Trump bullies Iraq ... or Iraq sees the writing on the wall .... whatever .... Iraq will stop oil exports to Iran in compliance with US sanctions. Wow. Iraq will halt its crude swap deal with Iran in order to comply with US sanctions. Wow.

Link here.

How trivial is this in terms of volume of oil? It is really, really trivial and it's all by truck: 30,000 bopd. One huge truck might carry  200 bbls, so we're talking at least 150 trucks / day. We probably need to confirm this some day -- that really seems like a lot of trucks going back and forth every day ... even in a country that relies on trucks. Whatever. 30,000 bopd is all we're talking.

Nice link here discussing volume of oil carried by various modalities.

The Market, Energy, Political Page, T+76 -- October 30, 2018,

The real question: which company will need a bailout first? Tesla or GE?

GE: cut its 24-cent dividend to 12 cents in September, 2017; today it cut its 12-cent dividend to one penny; this will save the cash-starved company around $4 billion; but, it's actually worse than it looks;  misses on both revenues and earnings; a loss of $1.15 vs earnings of 39 cents yoy; adjusted, earnings were 27 cents but that still missed estimate of 28 cents (wow); revenues? $31 billion for the quarter but missed estimates of 32 billion. GE shares dropped another 8% today and is now trading at around $10.22.

CLR Has Posted Its 3Q18 Presentation

Link here.

"First-look" highlights as I scroll through quickly.

Bakken:

• 35 slides
• 20 - 24% annual production growth yoy; Bakken, up 23% yoy
• production, record CLR quarter: 167,643 boepd; 128,497 bopd
• "2018 ramp": up to 70% Bakken wells yet to be completed; these 70 wells would represent about40% of CLR's total for 2018 -- wow!
• CLR says it has lowest cost structure among 12 peers
• Bakken returns better than ever
• all CLR top-10 30-day rate Bakken wells were drilled in the past 12 months
• 42 completions in 3Q18: 3,013 boped average per well
• EUR-type curves with optimized completions: 1.2 million boe
• compare with 980K in 2017; 800K in 2015; 603K in 2014; and, 409K in 2011
• 8 rigs drilling in the Bakken; an increase of two since last report
• 2 stim crews working; will have 4 stim crews at YE 2018
• in the Bakken, CLR is the #1 producer
• producing 12% of ND Bakken production
• produces about 150,000 bopd
• next nearest producer: 105,000 bopd
• 800,000 net reservoir acres
• 4,000+ Bakken wells in inventory
• two more 30-day rate Bakken wells added to top ten list
• Wiley 8-25H (#33112) -- Pershing -- see below
• Mountain Gap 3-10H (#33557) -- Rattlesnake Point -- see below
• wow, the 60-stage completions are now exceeding the 1,200 mboe EUR type curve (slide 8)
• more and more wells in the Bakken producing greater than 100 mboe in 90 days 

SCOOP/STACK

• 3Q18 production: 120,246 boepd
• 1.2 mboe EUR-type curves; some exceeding even those incredible rates

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Mountain Gap 3-10H (#33557) -- Rattlesnake Point, t7/18; cum 79K after 1.5 months:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	44755	44888	42139	49192	48687	100
BAKKEN	7-2018	18	32649	32184	32629	34761	21497	13029
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	6	1722	1722	6867	1933	0	1933

Wiley 8-25H (#33112) -- Pershing (still confidential):

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
8-2018	45114	79898
7-2018	52930	90387
6-2018	12113	19086
5-2018	2128	0