Lana Del Rey! Apple Live Streaming To Begin Momentarily -- 9:00 A.M. CDT -- October 30, 2018

Updates

October 31, 2018: from the presentation --

October 31, 2018: More, at Macrumors.com, link here --

Later, 2:01 p.m. CDT: CNBC's take on the new Apple products. 

Original Post

Purely coincidental:

Note: many factual and typographical errors; done on the fly to make sure I stay focused.

Link here: https://www.apple.com/apple-events/livestream/.

And it begins.Tim seems almost embarrassed. Huge, rock-star-like NYC welcome.

At the Brooklyn Academy of Music.

Starting immediately with the Mac.

• 51% of new Mac owners are new to Apple
• 76% of new Mac owners are in China
• 100 million Macs
• MacOs Mahogany recently released
• "Stack" app built in: cleans up desktop
• one Mac in particular is their favorite: MacBook Air; much clapping
• I agree -- it's phenomenal
• changed the industry
• first portable with all-day battery
• redefined the modern notebook
• most beloved notebook ever; much clapping
• so, what's new?
• a new MacBook Air -- even more enthusiastic response
• retina display
• and, a whole lot more
• Tim is really, really excited
• two "ports" on the left side; that's all?
• VP of hardware engineering to tell us all about it 
• everything re-engineered, refined
• #1 feature customers wanted: retina display, but much better
• display glass to the edge; 13.3" display; aluminum bezel of old Air removed
• another 3/4" display all the way around
• pixels quadrupled
• FaceTime camera still at the top even with loss of the aluminum bezel
• #2 feature customers wanted: TouchID
• comes with T2 security chip; most secure storage of any portable
• #3 feature: latest generation keyboard; each key backlit; Force Touch trackpad and 20% bigger
• can click anywhere on the trackpad -- this is also huge
• #4 feature: audio 
• #5: most versatile in/out port
• CPU: up to 16GB memory -- doubles previous; 60% faster
• all-day battery life
• portability -
• 17% less volume -- wow!
• 15.6 mm thin; 10% thinner
• weighs 2.75 pounds; a quarter-pound lighter 

• Aluminum: alloy
• huge breakthrough
• 100% recycled aluminum
• every MacBook Air is now !00% recycled aluminum -- huge enthusiastic response
• "greenest" Mac ever
• three finishes
• 8 GB; 1.6GHZ; 128GB SSD
• $1199 -- wow! That's incredible; about what they cost now ($999)
• $1199 seems to be a price point that Apple likes for their most requested products;
• this price point hasn't gone up much at all over the years
• can order starting today; will be available next week, November 7, 2018
• just in time for the holidays

Mac Mini? An almost-one-more thing moment from Tim.

This looks incredible.

The new Mac mini.

• biggest update ever
• space-grey finish
• processors: with 4-core and 6-core, 5x faster
• memory: 
• 32 GB
• but also
• can go up to 64 GB
• Storage: all flash storage; up to 2TB
• new cooling system; 
• connectivity: four Thunderbolt 3 ports; HDMI;
•  Paramount using Mac mini to film "Rocketman" (Elton John bio)
• $779
• can order starting today; will be available next week, November 7, 2018
• also, 100% recycled aluminum
• carbon footprint reduced by 50% 

Today at Apple: Angela. Wow. Great reception. Educational sessions in store. Apple is clearly widening the gap between itself and others. I am not aware of any other brand doing this. One concern: over-promise and under-deliver. These sessions are going to be way over-subscribed. Stores will look a lot different in the future. Apple University Village in Seattle just opened. The new Pris flagship will open soon. All facilities now run on 100% renewable energy (I am not sure of the specifics). 3,000 "pros" and 70,000 associates -- that know their computers.

The reception that Tim is getting in NYC is amazing. He says he is moving to NYC. LOL.

iPad.

• 400 million sold
• sold more last year than all of the laptops sold by all competitors last year
• therefore, most popular tablet as well as the most popular computer in the world
• three models: Mini, iPad, and Pro
• a new iPad Pro today -- wow
• no home button
• LCD stretches from top to top, bottom to bottom
• rounded corners
• liquid retina display
• ideas taken from iPhone
• 10.5" Pro now -- new --> same footprint but now an 11" display
• also 12.9" display -- huge
• about the very same size as an 8.5 x 11-inch piece of paper
• 5.9 mm thin
• 15% thinner than before
• 25% less volume
• Apple thinks people will move to the larger Pro; it seems so much smaller
• Face ID; will unlock with simple glance
• no longer a home button
• swiping gets you everything
• split view
• A12X Bionic -- a monster -- huge audience reception
• A12 in latest iPhones
• an "X" chip -- no other manufacturer has been able to make this jump
• 7-core GPU; 8-core CPU
• up to 90%
• faster than 92% of all portable PCs; and this is a tablet, not a laptop
• all-day battery life
• neural engine: 5 trillion operations per second
• 1TB storage capacity
• USB-C -- wow!  -- so you can hook it to  your printer
• can charge your iPhone from the iPad Pro 
• Pencil
• 2nd generation pencil
• attaches magnetically
• automatically recharges immediately and wirelessly
• always charging, so always ready to go
• tapping on the pencil actually changes function of the pencil
• Smart Keyboard Folio 
• attaches to keyboard
• no other devices offers the flexibility of the iPad
• best device ever for AR
• software
• wow -- as they are going through the capability, it seems way beyond any desktop, much less any tablet; one easily forgets this is a tablet, not a desktop
• gaming
• ultimate gaming platform: wow, the gaming looked real --- it was simply downright scary; rivaling consoles
• every NBA player is rendered perfectly down to the pinholes on the jerseys
• you have to see this to believe this; pretty amazing 
• working close with Adobe 
• Photoshop
• iPad Pro: $999
• can order starting today; will be available next week, November 7, 2018

So far, the presenters, about 7 women for every 3 men.

IO12: unbelievable start; installed in more devices in first month than any previous update

• 12.1 shipping today
• 32 friends on Group Face Time 
• 78 (?) more emojis

Finishes with ... Taylor Swift? Let's see who it is?

NY native.

Lana del Rey.

WOW. WOW. WOW.

This is truly incredible. Who would have thought?

Can't swear so can't give name of new album.

"How to Disappear" from the new album.

The new album title: "Norman F****** Rockwell." Due out in 2019.

Wow, this is really quite incredible. I never would have guessed Lana Del Rey tie-up to this extent with Apple. Speak volumes.

Seriously can anyone compete with Apple. Clearly "outside the box."

Second song she sings, again, cannot provide the name due to "G" rating required by Apple for this performance.

It's kind of ironic: the mainstream press is all upset about language being used today, and yet, Apple can't even let Lana del Rey mention the names of her songs or album.

I'm impressed that Lana Del Rey acceded to these requests. Good for her.

Big hug between Tim Cook and Lana del Rey. Standing ovation; I think but can't tell for sure with the lighting.

Iran's Worse Nightmare -- Oilprice -- October 30, 2018

The sanctions go into full effect next weekend, Sunday, November 4, 2018.

From oilprice.com, some comments and data points:

• it is clear that President Trump is serious about these Iranian sanctions
• when oil was trending toward $100 a few weeks ago, pundits said that Trump has gone too far; his sanctions would result in $100-oil or worse
• in fact, WTI is now trending toward $65 oil
• worse, the IEA and others are now forecasting a downtown in economic growth and a slowdown in oil growth demand going forward (for calendar year, 2019)
• Trump stuck to his horses, despite $100-oil talk, and Trump was "right" again (no pun intended)
• with the Khashoggi overhang, Saudi Arabia could be in deeper trouble than it was a few years ago: the price of oil has dropped well below $80 (Brent/OPEC basket) and investors are wary of photo ops with MbS

At Risk Of Beating A Dead Horse -- US Natural Gas Projections -- Winter, 2018 - 2019

I've gone back and re-read the post on natural gas sent by a reader.

After reading it again, I've taken the liberty to add a line on the graphic to project where "we" could be if the winter of 2018-2019 is anything like the winter of 2013 - 2014. I am unaware of anyone making that comparison yet, but it's a scenario that needs considering.

The reader's note is long and involved but it can be summed up in three points. Only that in bold needs to be read.

1. We should know where "we" stand by the end of the second weekend in November. Generally, max natural gas storage in the US is seen at the end of injection season, historically the first weekend in November, but the reader suggests that based on recent history, the injection season could go an additional week this year, i.e., the second week in November.

2. Going into the heating season, when natural gas in storage starts to decline, our current storage is at record lows, last seen in 2005, thirteen years ago.

3. If the winter of 2018 - 2019 approaches the severity of the winter of 2013 - 2014, US natural gas storage could drop to well below 200 bcf. Note that US natural gas in storage has never dropped below 900 bcf. The graphic is worth a thousand words.

This is my interpretation of what the reader wrote. I take all responsibility if I have misinterpreted what he was saying.

The graphic:

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The Top Three Stories That Fascinate Me Right Now

I first posted this list October 26, 2018, only four days ago:

• Proposition 112 in Colorado
• Saudi Arabia -- the Crown Prince's recent investment conference was a dud
• News today that the NDIC is raising the flaring issue once again

It's amazing how fast things change. The list is now changed a bit, and expanded:

• Proposition 112 in Colorado
• the growing alliance between Russia and Saudi Arabia
• how Iran responds when pushed into a corner
• flaring policy in North Dakota

Four EIA Dashboards

EIA dashboards:

• natural gas storage 
• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Voters And E15, The Road To Iowa -- October 30, 2018

E15: I'm impressed voters are watching so closely. From the linked poll:

President Trump recently instructed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to take steps that would allow gasoline blends containing up to 15 percent ethanol (E15) to be sold year-round rather than just eight months out of the year.

When it announced the move, the administration claimed that expanding the availability of E15 “will strengthen America’s domestic energy production and provide a boost to America’s farmers.” According to the results of a new national poll commissioned by the American Petroleum Institute (API), most voters surveyed have reservations about the administration’s E15 proposal.

“Consumers are speaking loud and clear,” API Vice President of Downstream and Industry Operations Frank Macchiarola said in a written statement outlining the results. “E15 is a symptom of the broken Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and it’s time for real reform. There is bipartisan agreement that the RFS is a failure and we urge the administration to support consensus legislation to significantly reform the RFS for the benefit of all consumers.”

The telephone survey of 1,001 registered voters, conducted Oct. 12 through 16, 2018, by Harris Poll, concluded that:

• 79 percent of voters are concerned about expanded E15 sales and vehicle incompatibility
• 83 percent of voters are concerned that consumers could pay higher pump prices if fuel retailers need to invest in new infrastructure to accommodate certain fuel types
• 68 percent of voters are concerned about consumers accidentally using E15 and subsequently damaging their engines
• 81 percent of voters are concerned that government requirements could exceed the 10-percent level of ethanol in the U.S. fuel supply and, according to API, could raise gasoline prices by up to 26 cents per gallon