A Hunt Oil Well Shows Jump In Production -- Not Re-Fracked -- September 10, 2018

The well:

• 17379, 1,971, Hunt, Karbowski 1-22H, Parshall, t3/09; cum 514K 7/18;

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2018	16	2313	1860	809	1177	677	179
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	124	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	21	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	28	344	287	36	305	272	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	885	887	10	788	701	9
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	845	901	12	693	616	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	982	949	20	1094	808	161

The only other well in this section, also not re-fracked:

• 20699, 344, Hunt, Karbowski 1-22H, Parshall, t9/11; cum 235K 7/18;

Production, unremarkable after coming back online:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2018	27	2023	2035	842	1187	683	180
BAKKEN	6-2018	14	653	496	304	253	198	9
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	42	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	27	695	660	133	1270	1134	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	2586	2586	160	4121	3663	45
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	2423	2603	152	3317	2949	0

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 2, T+29 -- September 10, 2018

From 2011:

• 17367, 213, CLR, Eric 11-24SH, Cedar Hills, North Red River B (not a Bakken), t7/11; cum 297K 7/18;

• Comment: not all wells being drilled in North Dakota are Bakken wells; some are from formations that were targeted in earlier booms; the North Red River B and the Red River are examples; CLR is probably the most active operator in North Dakota targeting "legacy" formations; I believe CLR assigns at least one rig for these "legacy" formations

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
NORTH RED RIVER B	7-2018	31	3988	3968	8973	382	0	382
NORTH RED RIVER B	6-2018	30	3370	3364	7574	322	0	322
NORTH RED RIVER B	5-2018	31	3740	3769	8111	338	0	338
NORTH RED RIVER B	4-2018	30	3873	3842	8388	301	0	301
NORTH RED RIVER B	3-2018	31	4096	4105	7656	314	0	314
NORTH RED RIVER B	2-2018	28	3525	3511	6903	287	0	287
NORTH RED RIVER B	1-2018	31	3771	3768	8740	313	0	313
NORTH RED RIVER B	12-2017	31	3706	3717	9005	345	0	345
NORTH RED RIVER B	11-2017	30	3623	3639	8903	351	0	351
NORTH RED RIVER B	10-2017	31	3777	3736	8004	349	0	349
NORTH RED RIVER B	9-2017	30	3306	3283	7558	369	0	369
NORTH RED RIVER B	8-2017	31	3214	3250	7952	401	0	401

**********************************

Now, Back To Everything Else

The cost of drilling a shale oil well -- back in 2016. Link here.

To all the faux environmentalists: thank you!

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+29 -- September 10, 2018

The #1 movie in town: the Chinese trade war with the US is just beginning.

The movie I'm watching:

• Dow could ...

PTI.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Sorry about that.

The movie I'm watching:

• the Dow, irrelevant, is poised to open up 100 points today
• relevant: two of the other three major indices are up; Russell 2000 is slightly negative
• Moonves is out
• CBS: it closed "up" on Friday (movers and shakers saw it coming); up again today
• TSLA: up nicely
• BABA: down a bit
• AAPL: after recent retreat, up again today; off its highs
• XLNX: trading in the pre-market; rare; up about 0.7%
• CVX: coming off its recent lows; up slightly
• XOM: ditto
• BRK-B: ditto
• Kavanaugh to be confirmed, Thursday, September 20, 11:43 p.m. ET (maybe)

First nations: link here -- note the Nisku --

****************************

The Cult Movement

Yesterday I wrote this:

The current "panic" over global warming has all the markings of superstition. It's surprising that great minds like Stephen Hawking don't recognize that.

Now this, a link sent to me by a reader, "global warming is a cult movement and 'pure belief' disguised as science." -- Dr Will Happer of Princeton University.

Princeton -- where Einstein taught.

"The world has lots and lots of problems, but increasing CO₂ is not one of the problems. So [the accord] dignifies it by getting all these yahoos who don't know a damn thing about climate saying, 'This is a problem, and we're going to solve it.' All this virtue signaling. You can read about it in the Bible: Pharisees and hypocrites and phonies."

 ‘CO2 is not a pollutant and it is not a poison and we should not corrupt the English language by depriving ‘pollutant’ and ‘poison’ of their original meaning’.

Pharisees and hypocrites and phonies.

Hemingway would have wordsmithed that to: "pharisees, phonies, and fools."

***************************

Meanwhile, In Libya

Re-Posting -- September 10, 2018

Boom: Permian auction doubles 20008 record, link here;

• near billion-dollar sale
• on the New Mexico side of the Permian Basin
• $95,001 / acre
• federal government auction
• a record high for North America's biggest oil field
• previous record: $40,001
• for newbies: there's a reason the bid ends in a single dollar
• two-day auction: 142 parcels
• raised almost one billion dollalrs
• total was more than the whole of 2017 and double the 2008 record
• Federal Abstract Co, Santa Fe, bids for a number of anonymous investors -- the record bidder -- a near-$400-million for 17 tracts
• the logical buyers: EOG, Devon, Exxon, and Chevron

I'm re-posting this because I want to opine what this story means. I will do that later.

Meanwhile, re-posting this link from Forbes: the Bakken is back! -- May 16, 2018.

• the Bakken is just one of ten "oil fields" globally that yield over 1 million bopd
• third largest in the US, behind the Permian and the Eagle Ford
• the Dallas Fed Energy Survey put the average breakeven price to profitably drill a new well in the Bakken at $50, with the $40-60 range of responses easily the tightest of the group -- March, 2018
• Hess, the number three player in the play, now upping Bakken spend by $900 million this year, or nearly 30%
• the Bakken will remain the most price sensitive of the three big shale oil plays but its incremental potential this year is second, maybe surpassing the 1.3 million b/d mark for total output 

And you can still get into the Bakken for under $100/acre. LOL. Compare to the Permian. LOL.

Boom! Permian Acres Sell For $95,001 -- September 10, 2018

Hold on to your hats. See "Permian auction" below -- under "fast and furious."

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Opening remarks: I've been investing as a small investor since 1984. There have been some rough patches and I've "left a lot of money on the table," as they say. Ope! But in the big scheme of things, I've loved it; I've learned a lot; it kept me "involved"; and, I will leave the granddaughters a portfolio with which they should have some fun. I don't think I've ever seen a more exciting market and it's exciting for several reasons:

• a tectonic change in thinking in the White House
• millennials
• technology
• "open book" test every day -- so much information available
• numerous trading vehicles and instruments
• instantaneous trades
• tax changes favoring investors
• commissions on trades are going to zero (which, by the way, will have big implications for at least two well-known discount brokers)
• energy
• US will be a net exporter of energy this next century while the rest of the world, for the most part, will be net energy importers

The Perry Mason These (Park Avenue Beat, Royal Philharmonic
Fast and furious: the movie I'm watching --

• rabbit holes and Ope! -- 
• end of driving season, and the price of gasoline in our area has not dropped; if anything it has increased a bit
• supposedly, on threats from Trump, Saudi has increased oil exports to the US; link here;
• apparently the EIA did not get the memo; link here;
• Canadian crude prices plunge again; link here; 
• Dow, irrelevant, looks to open over 100 points higher
• WTI: holding, maybe up a little bit
• dead cat bounce? Maybe not. Last week I noted that Tesla was selling 10x the number of EVs as its nearest competitor; then Motley Fool noted it; today, I see TSLA should open higher

Boom: Permian auction doubles 2008 record, link here;

• near billion-dollar sale
• on the New Mexico side of the Permian Basin
• $95,001 / acre
• federal government auction
• a record high for North America's biggest oil field
• previous record: $40,001
• for newbies: there's a reason the bid ends in a single dollar
• two-day auction: 142 parcels
• raised almost one billion dollalrs
• total was more than the whole of 2017 and double the 2008 record
• Federal Abstract Co, Santa Fe, bids for a number of anonymous investors -- the record bidder -- a near-$400-million for 17 tracts
• the logical buyers: EOG, Devon, Exxon, and Chevron

************************************

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today --
Monday, September 10, 2018

• 34632, 3,395, MRO, Lars 14-8H, Killdeer, 4 sections, 45 stages; 8.6 million lbs, t8/18; cum --
• 33521, 1,210, Enerplus, Vinson 148-95-12D-01H-TF, Eagle Nest, 39 stages; 9 million lbs, t3/18; cum 65K 7/18;

Sunday, September 9, 2018

• 33846, 3,642, WPX, Otter Woman 34-27HG, Mandaree, 51 stages; 8.6 million lbs, t8/18; cum -- 
• 32132, 1,104, CLR, Burr Federal 5-26H, Sanish, two sections, t7/18; cum 11K 8/18; constrained; no frack data; not fracked yet? FracFocus shows a one-day frack (7/29/2018)

Saturday, September 8, 2018

• 33522, 289, Enerplus, Evans 148-95-12D-01H, Eagle Nest,, 40 stages; 9.6 million lbs; t3/18; 72K 7/18;
• 33520, 315, Enerplus, Blanc 148-95-12D-01H, Eagle Nest, 36 stages; 8.5 million lbs, t3/18; cum 99K 7/18;
• 32963, 867, Oasis, Ceynar 5198 12-5 6B, Banks, 50 stages; 9.9 million lbs, t3/18; cum 141K 7/18;  the Ceynar wells are tracked here; #32963:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
7-2018	35587	94696
6-2018	26368	59803
5-2018	35941	86232
4-2018	32242	46343
3-2018	11110	19599

Active rigs:
 

$68.24↑	9/10/2018	09/10/2017	09/10/2016	09/10/2015	09/10/2014
Active Rigs	66	55	37	70	199

RBN Energy: local frack sand spreads to Eagle Ford and SCOOP/STACK.

The push to develop local sources of frac sand — and significantly reduce well-completion costs in the process — started in the Permian Basin, but it didn’t end there. A number of new sand mines are being opened and developed in the Eagle Ford in South Texas, and there are early signs the same is happening in the SCOOP/STACK in Oklahoma. With local sand eliminating the need for rail deliveries and rail-to-truck transloading terminals, sand and logistics companies are streamlining the delivery and management of frac sand by providing integrated mine-to-well-site proppant services. Today, we discuss recent developments on the frac sand front and what they mean for exploration and production companies in key plays.

Frac sand plays a critically important role in the Shale Era. Hydrocarbon production in shale and tight-oil plays is founded on a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Frac fluids and proppant (now primarily natural sand, but also a bit of ceramics and resin-coated sand), when forced out of the horizontal portion of wells at high pressure, fractures openings in the surrounding shale. When the pressure is released, the fractures attempt to close but the proppant contained in the fluids keeps them open, making a ready path for oil, gas and NGLs to flow into the well bore.

The significance of natural frac sand accessibility and cost has only increased in the past two years as E&Ps have ratcheted up their drilling activity, the volume of sand they use in each well completion as they have moved to slickwater designs and their efforts to rein in drilling and completion costs — and thereby trim their break-even prices and improve their bottom lines. We’ve discussed the frac sand issue in a number of blogs, beginning with our “Wipe Out!” series. Earlier we noted that the trends toward longer and longer laterals and higher-intensity completions are goosing efficiency and profitability and driving increased sand use. Later, we discussed the evolution of frac sand use, including shifts in the types of sand that were traditionally preferred and in the volume of sand being used in each well. Most recently we zeroed in on trends in frac sand demand and pricing, and on the development of regional and local frac sand mines (mostly in and around the Permian) to reduce transportation costs. We also put rising frac sand costs into an economic context, concluding that while those costs are a concern, they are usually outweighed by the oil-and-gas production gains (and resulting higher revenue) that result from using more sand. (That’s especially true lately, with crude oil prices north of $65/bbl.)