Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Pipeline: The New Reality In The US -- Americans Don't Like Pipelines -- July 25, 2018

Updates

August 9, 2018: Buffett missed a huge opportunity. OXY found a buyer.
  • two asset sales to EnCap Flatrock Midstream portfolio companies for about $2.6 billion.
  • liquids terminaling and logistics provider Moda Midstream LLC entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the Oxy Ingleside Energy Center and certain crude oil and LPG infrastructure. 
  • Lotus Midstream LLC agreed to acquire Oxy’s Centurion pipeline system and a Southeast New Mexico crude oil gathering system. Both transactions are expected to close in third-quarter 2018. 
See my original post. I think OXY was looking for $5 billion. I suggested that Centurion alone was worth $2.9 billion. Buyers got the whole enchilada for $2.6 billion. Wow.

Original Post 

Reuters via Yahoo!Finance has this story: OXY -- Occidental Petroleum may be looking to sell its pipeline assets -- ostensibly to raise cash for E & P but reading between the lines, operators are simply getting tired of the whole business. I've been blogging about the Keystone XL since at least 2012 when it became clear that President Obama intended to kill the project. Since then, update after update after update. Today, we get news that the Nebraska Supreme Court says it will "expedite" oral arguments. Charles Dickens wrote about the British legal quagmire where court cases dragged on for generations. As Pogo said, we've met the enemy and the enemy is us. Whether Pogo was the first to note that is debatable; probably not.

But I digress.

From the linked article:
Occidental's decision to shed the assets is the latest example of an oil company balking at the capital expenditure required to maintain U.S. pipelines, which have been plagued by bottlenecks and require construction of new networks.
Hess Corp and Oasis Petroleum Inc are among the companies that have sold or spun off pipelines in the past year, looking to take advantage of high valuations for these assets, which have been buoyed by the capacity constrains.
Occidental's midstream assets include a major U.S. crude pipeline, a stake in a gas pipeline in the Middle East, a crude export terminal in Texas, and the Centurion Pipeline, a 2,900 mile line carrying crude from the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico to Cushing, Oklahoma.
A year ago, Occidental tried to find a buyer for its 50 percent stake in its Ingleside Energy Center, a crude oil storage and export terminal in Corpus Christi, Texas. That sale process was not completed, and Occidental is including the facility in its package of midstream assets.
Much more at the link. 

Warren Buffett likes:
  • energy
  • sectors that require huge CAPEX -- huge tax advantages
  • industries with huge moats
  • to wait for the right moment to buy
Berkshire Hathaway:
  • market cap: almost $500 billion
  • income from continuing operations: $45 billion
  • total cash: $102 billion
  • total debt: $99 billion
  • how much does OXY want for its premier pipeline assets? $5 billion
  • shoot -- the Centurion Pipeline -- 30-second elevator speech -- at a million dollars a mile, that pipeline alone is worth $2.9 billion; LOL
  • perspective: Trudeau bought the current Trans Mountain Pipeline assets for $4.7 billion; it will cost an estimated $7.4 billion more to complete the expansion project
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there are bound to be factual and typographical errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. Also, I make a lot of simple arithmetic errors.

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The Book Page

I've often wondered why the Brits (for the most part the English and the Scots) had such an incredible effect/impact on the world.

Something I've never seen discussed in this context is the English system of inheritance: primogeniture.

I'm currently reading A. N. Wilson's landmark opus The Victorians, c. 2003. I said the other day I have no more shelf space and won't be buying any more books. I have made my first exception. This is an incredibly good book, but wow, I have to read it slowly. After four days of reading it, I've finally gotten into the book's rhythm.

It was while reading this book -- and I've read a lot of books about Great Britain, England, and Scotland, and have spent many years in England and along the Scottish border -- that it finally dawned on me what is likely the main reason for England's impact on the world.

The unique Lamarckian trait among the Turks: traders and multilingualism. The English and Scots: explorers.

[Hungarians, by the way, are probably descendants of an extra-terrestrial alien society far more advanced than any on earth. But I digress.]

To me, it's simply incredible, the concept of primogeniture. For most of history, XY primogeniture -- women were not even "considered." With primogeniture, the title, the estate, the family name, everything goes to the first born (and even that isn't quite correct, but it will due for now).

Taken to its extreme, and apparently it was until recent times, the first born English male inherited everything. His brothers and sisters got nothing, or were at a minimum dependent on the largess of their oldest brother.

Essentially, under primogeniture, everyone is disinherited except for the first-born male. The females would survive only by marrying "well." The disinherited brothers had two options. The first option: marry "well" but since they had nothing with which to begin, they were not, as a rule, highly sought-after bachelors. The second option: leave home, and seek their own fortunes.

It's simply incredible to read the family histories in British history like that presented by A. N. Wilson where a multi-million-dollar estate and title (in many cases) was inherited by the oldest brother, and the rest of the siblings received nothing.

It certainly explains a lot.

The China Concerts. Jean Michel Jarre

Reuters Analyst Reads The Blog -- July 25, 2018; US Crude Oil Inventories Drop By A Whopping 6.1 Million Bbls; Nearing The "Magic Number"

Definition: "swing producer." In the past, "swing producer simply referred to production of crude oil. That definition is useful, perhaps, for traders and speculators in crude oil, but the definition is clearly lacking. Oil in its raw form at the well site is not particularly useful. A truck of Bakken oil sitting out on a pad west of Tioga, ND, doesn't mean a whole lot to the consumer in Rome, Italy. What matters, when it comes to "swing producer" and the "real world," is how fast a refined product can be delivered to the consumer. Using that definition, without question, the US is the world's swing producer when it comes to "crude oil." See more at the link in the next item.


Reuters is reading the blog! Last week, this post: The US is the swing producer -- i.e., the shale producers are the world's swing producers. (By the way, Rusty Braziel seems to be suggesting the same; see the RBN Energy link today.) Within days after posting that "fact," this, over at twitter, from the Reuters analyst:


So, are US shale producers now the global swing producer? Machts nichts in this context. The point is that it's great to see Reuters reading the blog. 

Keystone XL: apparently even the Nebraska folks are getting tired of this story. The headline and link: Nebraska Supreme Court agrees to speed up oral arguments in Keystone XL pipeline case.  I've not read the article yet, and probably won't. I find it amazing: the smartest guys in the world -- supreme court judges -- are still not up to speed on the Keystone XL. How long has this been dragging out? That's a rhetorical question; don't reply.

Pending: I believe COP reports earnings tomorrow, and CVX and XOM will report earnings the following day, all before the market opens for the day. Not sure.

Weekly petroleum report, link here:
  • most important data point today, refinery operating capacity: at 93.8%, a bit on the low side
  • gasoline production at 10.3 million bbls (threshold: 10 million bbls)
  • distillate production at 5.2 million bbls (threshold: 5 million bbls)
  • US crude oil inventories: yesterday, the API reported that inventories dropped 3.16 million bbls; the EIA reports that US crude oil inventories decreased by a whopping 6.1 million bbls; now down to 404.9 million bbls. For the longest time, I opined that "350" was the magic number; I now feel comfortable that the new "magic number" is "400." WTI? flat!
  • days of supply, US crude oil: that will be reported later
  • gasoline supplied, four week average: 9.7 million bbls
  • distillate supplies, four week average: 4.1 million bbls
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Back to the Bakken

CLR: pretty funny.  UPI headline is click bait -- yes, CLR production came in below guidance but it was due to "wet weather and voluntary restrictions." Once I read the "sub-headline" I read no further. Again, machts nichts. But it certainly unnerved investors: CLR is down almost 5% today. Buying opportunity?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


Wells coming off confidential list today:
  • 34290, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Walker 31X-36G, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 33956, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 8-29-32-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data, 
  • 33712, 861,  Liberty Resources, Storsul C 158-93-8-5-3MBH, East Tioga, t2/18; cum 62K 5/18;
  • 31954, A, Hess, EN-Vachal-155-93-0532H-7, Alger, t6/18; cum --
Active rigs:

$69.24↑7/25/201807/25/201707/25/201607/25/201507/25/2014
Active Rigs64603273192

RBN Energy: US producers' new, critically important role in global crude oil markets.
U.S. crude oil production has doubled in the past eight years, from 5.5 MMb/d in 2010 to a record 11.0 MMb/d this month — an astonishing 9% compound annual growth rate. But there’s more to the Shale Revolution than higher production. Its most noteworthy characteristic may be a newfound market responsiveness that U.S. production volumes have to price, in which U.S. producers flex their “sweet spots” and an at-the-ready inventory of drilled-but-uncompleted wells (DUCs) that can be ramped up when prices warrant and pulled back when they don’t. This newfound flexibility has profoundly changed the role of the U.S. in global markets. In today’s blog, we take a big-picture look at crude oil production growth, the special ability of U.S. producers to respond to shifts in crude pricing, and the potential for the U.S. to have a stabilizing role in global markets.

Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Atlantic Coast Pipeline, Fracked Natural Gas, Another Milestone Reached, FERC Approves North Carolina Portion -- July 24, 2018

Back on January 4, 2015, the proposal:
N.C. regulators will allow Duke Energy and Piedmont Natural Gas to make contracts between their utilities and commercial divisions for gas transportation on the proposed Atlantic Coast Pipeline.
The unanimous vote by the N.C. Utilities Commission on Monday clears the way for Duke, Piedmont, Dominion Resources of Richmond, VA, and AGL Resources of Atlanta to make a preliminary filing next month for federal approval of the pipeline.
The 550-mile pipeline will run from eastern West Virginia, where it will access natural gas from the Utica and Marcellus shale fields, southeastward across Virginia and southward through North Carolina to Robeson County.
Sierra Club press release: FERC allows construction of the North Carolina section of the fracked gas Atlantic Coast Pipeline.

The Sierra Club then went into a tantrum / meltdown often associated with 3-year-olds.

On the other hand, straight news reporting from the WestVirginiaNews.

It's amazing: apparently the Sierra Club is worried about the project for these reasons:
  • it's a pipeline and, by definition, all pipelines are dangerous
  • the pipeline will carry a fossil fuel, and by definition, all fossil fuels are bad
  • the pipeline will carry a fossil fuel obtained through ... OMG ... fracking ... something that has been done frequently and safely at least since 1940 

Ten New Permits -- July 24, 2018

Active rigs:

$68.48↑7/24/201807/24/201707/24/201607/24/201507/24/2014
Active Rigs66593273193

Ten new permits:
  • Operators: WPX (6); Slawson (3); Hess
  • Fields: Mandaree (Dunn); Big Bend (Mountrail); Capa (Williams)
  • Comments: WPX has permits for a 6-well North Mabel pad in NWNW 11-149-93; Slawson with permits for a 3-well Stallion Federal pad on Lot 4, section 1-151-93;
Six permits renewed:
  • Slawson (3): three Submariner Federal permits in Mountrail County
  • Crescent Point Energy (3): three Legacy Et Al Berge permits in Bottineau County
Two producing wells completed:
  • 31434, 2,147, Slawson, Osprey Federal 2 SLH, Big Bend, t5/18; cum 42K 5/18;  (#31431, #31432 - PNC, #18749 - JIP, #31433, #31435 - PNC)
  • 33757, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Njos 7-26-35-157N-100W TFH, Marmon,
Four more SM Energy wells transferred to Petro-Hunt.

Prince Salman's Sovereign Wealth Fund Looks Sick, But I Wouldn't Call It Dead Nor Suggest Coffins Need Filling -- July 24, 2018

Updates

July 28, 2018: it's official -- the Saudi Aramco IPO is dead. At least according to oilprice.com.
Two things here:
  • First, nobody besides MbS wants the deal. Aramco Chairman Khalid al-Falih "has long been opposed to a deal for Sabic" the WSJ sources said. Meanwhile, Sabic executives worry that the company "would lose its identity in any deal."
  • Second, in the absence of an Aramco IPO, Saudi Arabia really has no option; Prince Mohammed’s advisers see a deal between the kingdom’s two largest companies as central to remaking the economy.
And the Saudi economy desperately needs remaking: even though oil prices recently have risen, following the 2014/2015 oil price crash which forced the government to inject billions into the economy (and liquidate more billions in reserves) to keep the populace content and the economy operating, the government is running a massive budget deficit this year after announcing the biggest fiscal stimulus package in the country’s history.
July 27, 2018: Aramco considers bond sale to buy SABIC stake. And it's a 70% stake. Also here.

Original Post 

I don't know how widely accepted the views are in this op-ed over at oilprice.com, but gleaning what seem to be the facts from the article suggests this is as good a place to start as anywhere to understand the huge news reported overnight.

Six data points, first.

First, Prince Salman's Vision 2030: take a very small part of Saudi Aramco public; the process has been delayed by one to two years, maybe more, depending to whom one listens.

Second: in the oil sector, there are three "streams": the upstream (E&P); midstream (pipelines); and, downstream (end users -- refineries and retail outlets). In a country like Saudi Arabia, there probably is not much call for "midstream." And that appears to be true. According to the op-ed, the two big oil/gas entities in Saudi Arabia are a) upstream, or Aramco; and, b) downstream, or  SABIC, a petrochemical company.

Third: Saudi Aramco and SABIC are (currently) two completely separate entities.

Fourth: SABIC is huge. The continuous international growth in Saudi Arabia's downstream sector (i.e., SABIC) and the successful acquisition of entities in Europe (including DSM Petrochemicals) and elsewhere, saw SABIC growing increasingly powerful [internationally].

Fifth: Saudi Aramco, as part of Prince Salman's Vision 2030, had pretty much decided to take a minority stake in SABIC, but now, out of nowhere, there is talk that Prince Salman may have much larger plans. Saudi sources are suggesting that Aramco is targeting the entirety of the 70 percent stake in SABIC that is currently held by the Prince (i.e., the Saudi sovereign wealth fund PIF).

Sixth: there was always competition between Saudi Aramco and SABIC but now that Prince Salman owns the kingdom, he can set his eyes on some bigger fish, including SABIC.

Now there are two stories going forward. The first story is what this means to Prince Salman, Saudi Arabia, and the global markets if Saudi Aramco and SABIC combine to become one huge behemoth. My hunch: petrochemical companies in the EU are going to be scrambling.

The second story is what this means for the Saudi Aramco IPO. Some suggest this is more evidence that the IPO will never see the light of day. That fits my world view.

So, now we wait and see.

How does the analyst over at oilprice.com see it playing out? Apparently he sees it as one huge slush fund for Prince Salman to fund his Vision 2030 projects:
... possibly a more important factor for crown prince Salman, the sale of PIF’s 70 percent stake in SABIC to Aramco would inject tens of billions into the coffins (sic) of the sovereign wealth fund, which is currently desperately seeking additional funding to support its vast list of projects (Red Sea, NEOM and Qiddiya) and investments.
Additional investments would help to stimulate Saudi Arabia’s struggling job market and the development of SMEs.
A sale of SABIC, leading to a downstream IPO by Aramco, could give a significant boost to MBS’s main target at present of developing the city of the future, called NEOM, a $500 billion investment project in the northwest of the Kingdom, including a free zone in the Sinai (Egypt).
The leverage of the expected $70-80 billion of the SABIC equity sale to Aramco would give the PIF and MBS enough breathing space to get going.
The SABIC acquisition will for sure put some pressure on Aramco’s financial position, but with higher oil revenues and still very low interest rates globally, the pain will be minimal. At the same time, Aramco’s valuation will go up based on SABIC assets and the global market position. 
Freudian? I got a chuckle out of the statement the analyst made: "...the sale of SBIC to Aramco would inject tens of billions into the coffins of the sovereign wealth fund."

Yes, the sovereign wealth fund took a "trillion-dollar hit" with the ill-advised oil production surge in 2014 - 2017, but by no stretch of the imagination did anyone say that the fund was dead, or now made up of coffins.

My hunch is that the good doctor meant to say "coffers."

"... the SABIC equity sale to Aramco would give the PIF and Prince Salman enough breathing space to get going." 

Maybe he did mean "coffins."