Monday, July 23, 2018

Idle Chatter Regarding MRO Re-Fracks In Bailey Oil Field -- July 23, 2018

I have looked at a lot of MRO wells in the Bailey oil field. It is clear the MRO has an active re-frack program in that field (I think the company may have even mentioned that a long time ago -- I've long forgotten). Be that as it may, I have a tag -- MRO re-fracks. I assume I've missed tagging a lot of re-fracks that I have posted, not to even mention all the re-fracks I have completely missed. I have spent most of my time looking at 16xxxx permits when it comes to MRO re-fracks; I don't recall how many 17xxx permits I have looked at.

I feel pretty comfortable suggesting that "every" 16xxx MRO permit/well is a candidate for re-fracking. I'm about ready to quit looking for new 16xxx MRO re-fracks and am curious about:
  • 17xxx MRO re-fracks; and,
  • 16xxx MRO re-fracks of re-fracks (that may be another four or five years before we see that, but the Bakken moves fast and there's a lot of innovation / experimentation; I think folks are curious what re-fracks of a re-frack might look like (I'm talking about medium or full re-fracks, not re-works or "mini-re-fracks."
Disclaimer: in a long list like this there are bound to be typographical and factual errors. In addition, the list is dynamic and will be changed almost daily. If the numbers don't add up, it simply means I made an error.

MRO oil and gas permits in Bailey oilfield:
  • total: 190
    • A: 137
    • Conf: 13
    • IA: 21
    • NC (DUCs):  9
    • PNC: 7
    • TA:  3
  • 15xxx: 1
  • 16xxx: 40
  • 17xxx: 22
  • 18xxx: 14
  • 19xxx: 4
  • 20xxx: 6
  • 21xxx: 6
  • 22xxx: 12
  • 23xxx: 3
  • 24xxx: 8
  • 25xxx: 6
  • 26xxx: 0
  • 27xxx; 0
  • 28xxx: 16
  • 29xxx: 12
  • 30xxx: 5
  • 31xxx: 0
  • 32xxx: 0
  • 33xxx: 24
  • 34xxx: 9

Papirosi And Paparazzi -- July 23, 2018 -- Nothing About The Bakken

As noted earlier, my "consequential" book for this week: The Victorians, A. N. Wilson, c. 2003. The heft and feel of the book is awesome. I love the feel of the paper, and love the pitch and font. This should be a fun book; it is a continuation of my "China phase."

I've now read the first three chapters, and have skimmed through most of the rest of the book. It is not an easy read for me. It probably is not an easy read for the average American. It is extremely heavy on politics everywhere, and statistics in places. I don't care for politics in general, and I definitely don't care for British politics. But in defense, the author has it exactly correct -- one cannot discuss/analyze/report any "modern" human "activity" without understanding the politics. But the book is quite unreadable for the most part -- unless one is really, really concentrating.

But, wow, where it is readable, it is incredible. This is the kind of book I would like on my book shelf if I had book shelf room for any more books. This is an incredibly good reference book.

I am quite perplexed why the author completely avoided any mention of the opium wars. Hong Kong is mentioned once, p. 124, in passing.
An extraordinary expansion of British imperialism had marked the first decade of Victoria's reign. Hong Kong in the Far East -- 1843, Labuan in Indonesia -- 1846, Natal -- 1843, Orange River in South Africa -- 1848, Gambia on the West Coast of Africa -- 1843. In 1842 the British fought the first of their disastrous Afghan wars, temporarily annexing that unconquerable country. Even the Russians in the twentieth century, or the Americans in the twenty-first, did not experience quite so cruelly the brutal indomitability of the Afghan guerrilla. 
Then this, page 197: two things to emerge from the Crimean War, completely unpredictable -- the importance of photography, and a change in the Western world's smoking habits.

Data points from the Crimean War and smoking as told by A. N. Wilson:
  • Robert Peacock Gloag, a Scotsman, was in the Crimean during this period; Wilson does not know why
  • while he was there, Gloag saw Turks and Russians smoking cigarettes; "in them he found an idea and an ideal. From the war a purposeful man emerged." -- 
  • the first Gloag cigarettes on sale in London were cylinders of straw-coloured paper into which a cane tip was inserted and the tobacco filled in through a funnel
  • the Russians called these little scorchers, papirosi (reminds me of paparazzi, also little scorchers)  
  • then a list of early cigarette-makers that followed
    • "Moscows" -- had a piece of wool in the end to act as a filter
    • "Tom Thumbs" -- penny lines to be smoked to the bitter end
    • "Don Alfonso" -- bundles of 25 for 1 shilling
    • "the Whiff" -- introduced in 1871; the profits paid for the church of St Stephen, Peckham
  • Gloag had introduced a narcotic that was so addictive that social attitudes were forced to change in order to accommodate the cigarette compulsion
  • previously, smoking was considered a "low" activity; greatly restricted where folks could smoke
  • by 1860, smoking was allowed in railway carriages
  • the real smoking revolution happened in the generation after Gloag's when the Bristol tobacco firm of W.D. and H.O. Wills pioneered the first Bonsack cigarette-making machine
    • the Bonsack cigarette-making machine was bought from America in 1883, the invention of James A. Bonsack of Salem, VA
    • the Bonsack: could manufacture 200 cigarettes per minute
  • between 1860 and 1900, consumption of cigarettes grew about 5% per annum
  • the firms that followed Willis:
    • Lambert and Butler (London)
    • John Player and Sons (Nottingham)
    • Hignett Bros and Cope Bros (those are two firms, Liverpool)
  • the Liverpool firms competed for the franchise to display and sell cheap cigarettes in the Railway Refreshment Rooms
  • 1880s: a price war let to the "penny cigarettes
  • Wild Woodbine, 1888, founded: became the most famous cheap smoke in the Western world, forever associated with the men fighting in the trenches 25 years later
  • smoking soared
  • the working classed were hooked; the true opium of the people
  • Gloag's legacy of the cigarette habit could be said to be the most lasting and notable consequence of the Crimean War
  • and then this, a typical A. N. Wilson observation:
    • When the Turkish, Russian and British empires are now as obsolete as the Bonapartist dynasty, the British working class, 146 years after the treaty of Paris, are still addicts of what Gloag brought home -- though in other classes the custom, like its adherents, is dying.
Maybe later, time to talk about photography and the Crimean War.

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Notes to the Granddaughters

In 1988, or thereabouts, as the clinic commander of the RAF Mildenhall clinic, I was involved in caring for some Afghan guerillas, casualties of the Soviet-Afghan war. That war lasted nine years, from December, 1979, to February, 1989.

I have a great photograph of some of those injured guerillas. When I saw those "soldiers," I knew there was no way the Russians could win that war. I had the same "feeling" when the US Army and special forces entered Afghanistan.

[Later: I found the photo. Movement of these guerrillas was only to occur after dark but there was an unexpected daylight landing this date en route to the US. Somehow the photos got past the censors.]


Note: indomitability = untameable.

I will add this list to the word list for Arianna.

This Is Not An Investment Site --- July 23, 2018

Blue eyes cryin' in the rain. Tesla shares drop following news that Tesla confirmed that it did indeed ask for money back from supplies, going back as far as 2016, calling it a normal practice in the automotive industry. The big question is whether the US will extend the "200,000 threshold" and/or whether the states of California/Nevada will bailout Tesla?

The other bit question, of course, is how low will TSLA go today? Now trading below $300 (again), TSLA dropped almost 5% in early morning trading. [Later: TSLA has now dropped 5% in early morning trading.]

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Others (making America great again):
  • UNP: up a bit over 1.5%, up $2.37, trading at $143.78
  • CVX: up about 0.5%, up 55 cents, trading at $122.82
  • NOG: up a little over 1%
  • EOG: up about 0.7%; trading at $123.22
Mainstream media: doomsday for Daily News?

Iran. The all-caps tweet from President Trump was meant for those countries who say they will ignore US sanctions on Iran. Oil market: hardly noticed. 

150K BOE In Three Months -- New CLR Well In The Bakken -- July 23, 2018

This well will be reported out later today. Stay tuned.

In North Dakota, the water is inexpensive and plentiful. It looks like Harold Hamm thought about that.

31517, 2,572, CLR, Lansing 6-25H; API - 33-053-07061, huge frack, 20.8 million gallons of water (twice the usual currently used in the Bakken;, but look at this, 94.8% water; 139,577 + 291,342 MCF = 139,577 + 48,549 = 188,126 boe over three months; 56 stages; 9.3 million lbs sand (mesh/large white), t3/18; cum 140K 5/18:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20184246390136
4-20185140171481
3-20184281354287
2-2018690
1-201823730

The CLR Lansing wells are tracked here.

Fast And Furious -- July 23, 2018

Updates

Later, 5:36 p.m. CDT: it doesn't matter whether the data is correct or not; the question is how an entire industry; and, the millennials fell for his data; I guess the same way they fell for the global warming data -- if you say it enough times, it becomes fact. Public school education.



Original Post
Wells coming off confidential list over the weekend:
  • Monday, July 23, 2018:
    • 33999, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Walker 31X-36H, Heart Butte, no production data,
    • 33998, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Walker 31X-36D, Heart Butte, no production data,
    • 33957, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie3-20-17-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
    • 33343, SI/NC, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36B, Bear Den, no production data; Dakota Federal wells are tracked here;
    • 33193, 94 (no typo), Enerplus, Bear Den 150-94-32D-29H, Spotted Horn; producing, nice but not remarkable; t1/18; cum 43K 5/18;
    • 33192, 81 (no typo), Enerplus MHA 150-94-32D-29H-TF, Spotted Horn, producing; very, very nice; t1/18; cum 82K 5/18;
    • 33095, 701, CLR, Monroe 13-2H1, Banks, very, very nice well; the CLR Monroe wells are tracked here; t3/18; cum 78K 5/18;
    • 31956, 1,234, Hess, EN-Vachal-LW-155-93-0523H-9, Alger, t6/18; cum --
  • Sunday, July 22, 2018:
    • 34289, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Walker 31X-36HXE, Heart Butte, no production data,
    • 33342, drl, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36F, Bear Den, no production data,
    • 31957, 1,205, Hess, EN-Vachal-LW-155-93-0532H-1, Alger, t6/18; cum --
  • Saturday, July 21, 2018:
    • 33958, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 4=29-32-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
    • 33055, drl, XTO, Dakota Federal 42X-36A, Bear Den, no production data,
    • 31517, 2,572, CLR, Lansing 6-25H, Banks, 56 stages; 9.3 million lbs large/mesh; 20 million gallons water, huge well; 50K+ in one month; t3/18; cum 140K 5/18; the Lansing wells are tracked here;

 *****************************************
Fast and Furious

Fast and furious (we'll get back to these when time permits)


**********************************************
Back to the Bakken

HAL beats: North American revenue rose 38%; international revenue a paltry rise of 6% -- tells one where the activity is, doesn't it?


Active rigs:

$68.95↑7/23/201807/23/201707/23/201607/23/201507/23/2014
Active Rigs67583270194

RBN Energy: Permian producers' options when severe gas takeaway constraints arise.
Permian producers continue to walk a tightrope, almost perfectly balanced between still-rising production of natural gas and the availability of gas pipeline takeaway capacity to transport that gas to market. Don’t get us wrong. There are gas takeaway constraints out of the Permian, as evidenced by a Waha cash basis that averaged more than 50 cents/MMBtu last week. But a combination of factors — including increased flows to Mexico and a couple of small, under-the-radar expansions of existing takeaway pipes — has prevented the Waha basis from tumbling to $1 or even $2/MMBtu. But that big fall may still happen — in fact, you could say that odds are that severe takeaway constraints and differential blowouts will occur within the next few months. If and when that happens, what can producers do to quickly regain their balance? Today, we discuss recent developments in Permian gas markets and the options that producers, gas processors and midstream companies may need to consider if things get really tight.
Philippe Petit, the French high-wire artist who in 1974 famously walked (eight times!) between the twin, 110-story towers of the original World Trade Center in New York City, once said, “When I see three oranges, I juggle; when I see two towers, I walk.” Well, when oil and gas producers see a hydrocarbon resource as gargantuan and as promising as the Permian, they jump in with both feet, even if it requires multibillion-dollar investments in infrastructure and poses the risk of huge, profit-squeezing price spreads if production growth outpaces the ability of pipelines to transport crude oil and natural gas to end-users.
**************************************
Notes for the Granddaughters

Whenever we go back to San Pedro, California (along the coast, south of Los Angeles, along the LA Harbor), we always enjoy the drives along the coast.

There's a particularly steep hill in San Pedro, but I had never given much thought to it. It's "28th Street" -- just a mile or so down the road from where May's parents' home is. I avoid it whenever possible. I can't imagine learning to drive an Alfa Romeo with manual transmission on that incline. LOL.

Last night while watching an old Humphrey Bogart - Lauren Bacall - David Goodis movie I was reminded of the steep hills in San Francisco. I was curious. Just how steep are those hills. From wiki:
Filbert Street and 22nd Street in San Francisco have a maximum gradient of 31.5% (17.5°).]
The steepest hill on Filbert is the east half of the block between Hyde and Leavenworth; like 22nd St it is one-way down.
The city map shows a descent of 65 feet, which based on a half-block being 206.25 horizontal feet makes the grade 31.5%, the official figure.
The sidewalk-only section of Broderick Street (between Broadway and Vallejo, where the city map shows a climb of 96 feet in the 275-foot block) is steeper, just under 35% grade, and a block west the sidewalk-only block of Baker Street is a bit steeper than that.
An unofficial survey of San Francisco streets declared the steepest street in San Francisco to be a 30-foot section of Bradford Street, paved in 2010, with a 40% grade. The curvy Lombard Street started as a 27% grade.
Now this:
Three streets in Los Angeles are steeper—28th Street in San Pedro at 33.3%, Eldred Street in Highland Park at 33%, and Baxter Street in Silver Lake at 32%.
That 28th Street down the road from May's parents' home -- steepest of the steep. Amazing where following the dots leads one. LOL.