Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Late Posting -- Taxable Sales -- 1Q18 -- North Dakota Counties, Cities

I never did "finish" this (see earlier post). Better late than never, I suppose.

We are now well into our third calendar quarter and in a month or two we will get taxable sales data for the second quarter.

In anticipation of that data, here are the numbers for select cities and counties for the first calendar quarter, 2018.

Disclaimer: typographical errors likely in a post like this. 

Counties:
  • Cass (Fargo): $599,825,458 vs $601,242,173 (1Q17) -- a slight decrease yoy
  • Williams (Williston): $337,743,009 vs $253,389,540 (1Q17) -- huge increase yoy (33.3% increase) 
  • Burleigh (Bismarck): $319,378, 159 vs $4343,939,438 (1Q17) -- a decrease yoy 
  • Ward (Minot): $219,276,507 vs $224,737,815 (1Q17) -- a decrease yoy
  • Grand Forks: $218,826,174 vs $257,679,898 (1Q17) -- a decrease yoy
  • Stark (Dickinson: $214,735,582 vs $186,801,560 -- huge increase yoy
  • Then we drop all the way to McKenzie (Watford City): $57,211,683) vs $41,664, 520 -- huge increase yoy
Cities: 
  • Fargo: $508,433,116
  • Williston: $320,143,874
  • Bismarck: $317,554,889
  • Grand Forks: $213,733,324
  • Minot: $208,171,518
  • Dickinson: $201,809,973
  • Watford City: $50,523,814
  

That $68 WTI Price? Not To Worry ... Look At The Midland / WTI Spread -- As Much As $15 -- RBN Energy -- July 17, 2018; 100% Of Bakken Wells Go To DUC Status; JB Hunt's Profits Soar; Stock Collapses; Texas Electricity Demand Greatly Exceeds California Record

Texas heat! Texas power demand breaking records during heat wave. It's cooler today, the high may not quite hit 100 degrees. Friday? 105 degrees.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said demand reached 70,587 megawatts on Monday, topping the 69,647 MW record for the month set on July 3, 2018. One megawatt can power about 1,000 U.S. homes.
I believe the peak demand for California was only 50,270 MW set on July 24, 2006. 

About that soaring price of gasoline? It's falling fast. Down to $2.52 here in north Texas. Possibly slightly lower in some areas. Higher along the major highways.

Wow -- UH-Haul maxed out! On way into work today, I noted that the U-Haul Rental lot was completely full of trucks. Absolutely full. I've never this lot so full. Reminds me of the Bakken boom when the U-Haul Rental lot in Williston was overwhelmed by all the trucks and trailers pulling into Williston. There is a boom going on in west Texas (Midland/Odessa); north central Texas (north of DFW airport); along the I-35 corridor between/including Austin to San Antonio; and east Texas (Houston/Galveston).

Trucking, making America great again: from The WSJ --
J.B. Hunt profit, revenues soar on surging freight demand. Transportation operator leads off second-quarter earnings reports for sector saying it saw double-digit gains in trucking, rail pricing measures.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.  reported a 55% gain in second-quarter earnings to $151.7 million, easily beating expectations as higher freight rates and strong shipping demand boosted revenue and profit across the company’s trucking and logistics operations.
J.B. Hunt’s revenue rose 24% to $2.14 billion, topping consensus estimates of $2.05 billion from analysts. T
he second-quarter profit reached $1.37 per share compared with 88 cents per share, or $97.9 million, in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimated J.B. Hunt would earn $1.28 a share for the quarter.
J.B. Hunt’s stock was off 4.1%, or $4.93 per share, in trading Monday morning.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, trucking, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Coyote blog: if you haven't visited the Coyote blog in a long time, highly recommend visiting the site and simply scroll down through the past few pages of postings. A very, very good blog.

Tesla: if you don't have time to scroll through the Coyote blog, at least take a look at this post regarding Tesla. It was posted about a month ago. We discussed it on this blog a few days ago. At least we know where Tesla shipped the "missing" cars.

Libya: apparently not that big a deal. LOL. Brent falls 4% to 3-month low after supply concerns ease. LOL. Saudi said it could make up the difference; Russia said it could pump more; there's such a backlog of oil in this country, that the Midland / WTI spread is as much as $16 (see below).


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Back to the Bakken

BNSF maxed out with grain cars in the Bakken. Link here. Imagine the backlog if the Bakken did not have the DAPL. What the article failed to mention was all the additional track that was laid during the Bakken boom to accommodate CBR. BNSF says the backlog is normal for this time of year. It's mid-July; seems early. Maybe global warming is moving the growing season to the left in North Dakota.

Wells coming off confidential list today:
  • 33994, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-1807H-8, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 33960, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, EPEUSC David 9-29-32-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
  • 24050, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-6H, Charlson, no production data,
Active rigs:

$67.67↓↓7/17/201807/17/201707/17/201607/17/201507/17/2014
Active Rigs69592973196

RBN Energy: lotteries, shippers, and trends in Midland price differentials.
Since early this year, the Midland crude differential has continued to widen, trading one day last week at a discount of $15.75/bbl to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing, the widest spread since August 2014 before settling back to $11.25/bbl on Monday.
The wide price differential is a result of fast-growing production in the Permian and bottlenecked takeaway pipelines. But the trajectory of this increasing price spread has been anything but smooth. Lately, we have seen a blip in the price differentials right around the 19th or the 20th of each month.
In each of the last three months, for a short-lived 24 to 48 hours, the Midland-Cushing price differential has narrowed by $2/bbl or more as Permian shippers have gone on feeding frenzies. Today, we look at these brief upticks in pricing and the pipeline and trader mechanics behind them.

Monday, July 16, 2018

MRO Well In Bailey Oil Field -- Getting Ready For A Re-Frack? -- July 16, 2018

I have no idea if this well is being "prepped" for a re-frack, but when I see a mediocre MRO well in Bailey field coming off-line, the first thing that goes through my mind: a re-frack.

There is nothing on the NDIC GIS map suggesting any activity in the area to explain why this well is coming off line.

For now, something to put on the list of wells that need to be followed up in a few months.

The well:
  • 17318, 483, MRO, Clive Pelton 34-23H, Bailey, t8/08; cum 178K 5/18; taken off-line mid-4/18;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20181740043911331013537
BAKKEN3-20183183590327266632370
BAKKEN2-201828786679266623230144
BAKKEN1-20183189287429869939525
BAKKEN12-20173195211053277254390
BAKKEN11-201730114011153978805800
BAKKEN10-20173189290525963233221
BAKKEN9-2017307196621945092495
BAKKEN8-2017318208742065642884
BAKKEN7-20172563465816342918434

End Of The Line -- July 16, 2018 -- Nothing About The Bakken


From oilprice.com: Ontario kills renewable energy projects to bring bills down.
The new Ontario government is canceling or winding down 758 renewable energy contracts that will see more than 200 projects killed off in southwestern Ontario as the newly sworn-in government follows through with its pledge to bring hydro bills down by 12 percent.
Ontario ratepayers will benefit from US$601 million (C$790 million) in savings due to the decision to cancel and wind down the renewable energy contracts.
Well, that fad -- renewable energy -- didn't last long.

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Ed Wood

For the third time in about ten evenings, I'm watching Tim Burton's movie, Ed Wood, with an all-star cast, including Martin Landau and Johnny Depp. It's hard to believe, but the movie won two Academy Awards, including Landau for best supporting actor.

I can't recommend the movie. One truly has to be in the right frame of mind to watch this movie. But I love it.

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Our Man In Havana

One of the funniest books I've read in ages is Our Man In Havana by Graham Greene. I'm purposely not reading the wiki entry regarding this book or reviews of this book until I've finished it. Every chapter is good but some are better than others. Some really good writing -- some great quotes, if one could remember them.
"He had an easy rapid insolence you had no time to resent before he had given fresh cause for annoyance." 
-- sort of reminds me of Acosta, that rude and disrespectful CNN White House correspondent. LOL.

The Road To Australia Just Hit A Road-Block Called Reality -- July 16, 2018

Before we get to the BIG STORY below, the one thing we can all agree on with regard to the Putin-Trump 2018 Summit: global warming was not on the agenda unless that's what they talked about in their private meeting. My hunch: they talked about their grandchildren.

This is really quite a story. A huge thank you to the reader who alerted me to this story.

For those on the "road to Australia" you don't need to be reminded of the high costs for electricity in Australia -- a month ago electricity surged to $14,000 / MWH -- it's been one of the colder winters ever for Australia. And you don't need to be reminded why the price of electricity has surged. For those not in the loop:
  • Australia, home of one of the world's greatest reserves of coal and cheap electricity, decided to...
  • save the world by giving up coal and cutting CO2 emissions from that country, and ....
  • replace coal with solar, but ...
  • huge disappointment, and even ...
  • Elon Musk's batteries couldn't save the day, so ...
  • Australians are shipping their coal to China (where they have really, really cheap electricity), and ...
  • the Australians are paying really, really high prices for electricity.
Now, a reader sends me an update ..
  • the national electric grid throws in the towel; it must have gotten ...
  • a lot of angry letters from citizens who are going broke paying to save the world, and ... 
  • want it stopped now
  • the national electric grid (AEMO) says they can't do it .... 
  • it will take decades to transition to solar energy, and ...
  • it will take billions of dollars for the transition ...
So, Australia is back to coal.

From WattsUpWithThat,
Coal-fired power will be needed for decades to come to keep power prices down and the lights on as the Australian energy market transitions to renewables, the Australian Energy Market Operator says.
In a report to be released today, the AEMO says extending the life of coal-fired power stations is the most viable way of keeping energy prices down as the transition takes place.
It also predicts replacing Australia’s existing coal-fired network would cost between $8 billion and $27 billion by the mid-2030s.
AEMO’s analysis says that based on the projected cost, the cheapest option would be to “retain existing resources for as long as they can be economically relied on”.
“Over the next 20 years, approximately 30 per cent of the NEM’s (National Electricity Market’s) existing coal resources will be approaching the end of their technical lives, and will likely be retired, which highlights the importance of mitigating premature retirements as these resources currently provide essential low-cost energy and system support services required for the safe and secure operation of the power system,” it says.
In other words, AEMO says that the most viable alternative to save Australia, if not to save the world, is to extend the life of coal-fired power stations while transitioning to solar.

The transition:
  • will take decades
  • will cost between $8 billion and $27 billion by the mid-2030s
  • and it still won't work
I think Mr AEMO needs to be fired.

Yes, Mr AEMO is nominated for the 2018 Geico Rock Award.


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Texas Friendly

I'm sitting in McDonald's tonight blogging while oldest granddaughter is at water polo practice.

It's pretty much empty but the drive-through is busy.

My only two compatriots are/were two homeless men, both clearly schizophrenic.

The first one had appropriate clothes for the 100-degree weather. He did have a plastic bottle of water -- wow, what would we do without plastic? He must have been here for about an hour or so. I wanted to give him money to buy a meal but was concerned that he might take my advances the wrong way. Right, wrong, or indifferent, I left him alone to continue his conversation with his imaginary friend(s).

About forty-five minutes into his visit here, the McDonald's manager walked up to him and very quietly asked him if he could bring him some dinner. The homeless man said "thanks" but declined. He stayed another twenty minutes or so and then departed. The homeless person, not the manager.

Shortly thereafter, one of his imaginary or real friends showed up. Another homeless person and also schizophrenic. He was not appropriately dressed for 100-degree weather. He had on his winter parka and all the stuff one wears with winter parkas -- huge stocking cap, layered clothing, snow boots, etc. And a plastic water bottle. Wow what would we do without plastic?

[I looked outside; the weather appeared not to have changed; it still appeared to be summer.]

The second homeless man used the bathroom but was here only a few minutes. I saw him leave with a huge drink in his hand from McDonald's. I can guarantee you that was gratis from the McDonald's manager.

[Disclaimer: I am assuming the men were homeless; I did not confirm.]

It will never be reported, but I am convinced that McDonald's and plastic water bottles have probably saved more downtrodden souls than all the emergency rooms in this country. I could be wrong. We will never know.

By the way, as long as I've gone down this road this far another story. Many months ago, while at a What-a-Burger, I saw something similar. In fact I may have blogged about it. A homeless person came in and the manager gave the homeless person a full meal. Before leaving, I sought out the manager and gave him a $5-bill (I suppose it was $5; I honestly don't remember the amount) and told him to use the cash for a meal for the next homeless person.

Play it loud, the man in the back said, "everyone attack"; and it turned into a ballroom blitz --


I hope they never ban plastic bottles. I guess if you are an elite you can afford a $30-Yeti thermos. A lot of folks in southern Texas may be alive today because of the ubiquitous plastic water bottle.