Tuesday, July 17, 2018

That $68 WTI Price? Not To Worry ... Look At The Midland / WTI Spread -- As Much As $15 -- RBN Energy -- July 17, 2018; 100% Of Bakken Wells Go To DUC Status; JB Hunt's Profits Soar; Stock Collapses; Texas Electricity Demand Greatly Exceeds California Record

Texas heat! Texas power demand breaking records during heat wave. It's cooler today, the high may not quite hit 100 degrees. Friday? 105 degrees.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) said demand reached 70,587 megawatts on Monday, topping the 69,647 MW record for the month set on July 3, 2018. One megawatt can power about 1,000 U.S. homes.
I believe the peak demand for California was only 50,270 MW set on July 24, 2006. 

About that soaring price of gasoline? It's falling fast. Down to $2.52 here in north Texas. Possibly slightly lower in some areas. Higher along the major highways.

Wow -- UH-Haul maxed out! On way into work today, I noted that the U-Haul Rental lot was completely full of trucks. Absolutely full. I've never this lot so full. Reminds me of the Bakken boom when the U-Haul Rental lot in Williston was overwhelmed by all the trucks and trailers pulling into Williston. There is a boom going on in west Texas (Midland/Odessa); north central Texas (north of DFW airport); along the I-35 corridor between/including Austin to San Antonio; and east Texas (Houston/Galveston).

Trucking, making America great again: from The WSJ --
J.B. Hunt profit, revenues soar on surging freight demand. Transportation operator leads off second-quarter earnings reports for sector saying it saw double-digit gains in trucking, rail pricing measures.
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc.  reported a 55% gain in second-quarter earnings to $151.7 million, easily beating expectations as higher freight rates and strong shipping demand boosted revenue and profit across the company’s trucking and logistics operations.
J.B. Hunt’s revenue rose 24% to $2.14 billion, topping consensus estimates of $2.05 billion from analysts. T
he second-quarter profit reached $1.37 per share compared with 88 cents per share, or $97.9 million, in the same quarter a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters estimated J.B. Hunt would earn $1.28 a share for the quarter.
J.B. Hunt’s stock was off 4.1%, or $4.93 per share, in trading Monday morning.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, trucking, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Coyote blog: if you haven't visited the Coyote blog in a long time, highly recommend visiting the site and simply scroll down through the past few pages of postings. A very, very good blog.

Tesla: if you don't have time to scroll through the Coyote blog, at least take a look at this post regarding Tesla. It was posted about a month ago. We discussed it on this blog a few days ago. At least we know where Tesla shipped the "missing" cars.

Libya: apparently not that big a deal. LOL. Brent falls 4% to 3-month low after supply concerns ease. LOL. Saudi said it could make up the difference; Russia said it could pump more; there's such a backlog of oil in this country, that the Midland / WTI spread is as much as $16 (see below).

Back to the Bakken

BNSF maxed out with grain cars in the Bakken. Link here. Imagine the backlog if the Bakken did not have the DAPL. What the article failed to mention was all the additional track that was laid during the Bakken boom to accommodate CBR. BNSF says the backlog is normal for this time of year. It's mid-July; seems early. Maybe global warming is moving the growing season to the left in North Dakota.

Wells coming off confidential list today:
  • 33994, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-1807H-8, Blue Buttes, no production data,
  • 33960, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, EPEUSC David 9-29-32-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
  • 24050, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-6H, Charlson, no production data,
Active rigs:

Active Rigs69592973196

RBN Energy: lotteries, shippers, and trends in Midland price differentials.
Since early this year, the Midland crude differential has continued to widen, trading one day last week at a discount of $15.75/bbl to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at Cushing, the widest spread since August 2014 before settling back to $11.25/bbl on Monday.
The wide price differential is a result of fast-growing production in the Permian and bottlenecked takeaway pipelines. But the trajectory of this increasing price spread has been anything but smooth. Lately, we have seen a blip in the price differentials right around the 19th or the 20th of each month.
In each of the last three months, for a short-lived 24 to 48 hours, the Midland-Cushing price differential has narrowed by $2/bbl or more as Permian shippers have gone on feeding frenzies. Today, we look at these brief upticks in pricing and the pipeline and trader mechanics behind them.

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