Monday, July 16, 2018

Update On ExxonMobil's LNG Export Terminal In Papua New Guinea -- July 16, 2018

ExxonMobil: I don't know how credible this op-ed piece is over at oilprice.com but it certainly is interesting.
Until recently, tiny Papua New Guinea was the envy of the world's LNG producers ... the project came online without much delay; and pretty much on budget. 
The ExxonMobil-led $19 billion PNG project came online in mid-2014 and started shipping LNG to markets in the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for 72 percent of all global LNG demand.
By 2017, the project was producing some 8.3 million tonnes of LNG, an increase of 20 percent from the original design specification of 6.9 million tonnes per annum.
But following a 7.5 magnitude earthquake, it looks like this could be the beginning of the end.
Again, I don't know how accurate this all is, but it is interesting.

But look how big that project was: this single project accounted for 72 percent of all global LNG demand.

For twenty-four years Smokie's been living next door to Alice --

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+46 -- July 16, 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. I am posting the SeekingAlpha article on Enbridge due to the relationship between Enbridge and the Bakken.

Enbridge: from SeekingAlpha; Fitzsimmons is a regular and knowledgeable contributor to SeekingAlpha, a contributor I enjoy following -- 
  • Enbridge already announced C$7.5 billion in asset sales this year, more than twice managements original C$3 billion bull-year target
  • the market appears to have ignored the asset sales, but has responded very well to positive news on the Line 3 Replacement Project
  • further share price appreciation will likely be tied to progress on the earnings front -- and the Q2 report is due out on August 3, 2018
  • also, discussion of PSX (Phillips 66); DCP; Line 3
  • from the linked article (but there is so much more at the linked article)


Putin-Trump summit: I think this was a much more important "summit" than folks seem to think. My hunch: the mainstream media is completely missing the importance of this "summit." Trump also took advantage of being "in the area." He attended the NATO conference in Brussels, which put him within "same time zones" and just hours from Scotland -- he saw the Queen; the Prime Minister; and, his golf course -- and hours from Helsinki which gave him a chance to see Vladimir Putin. Great, great use of time. 

Putin-Trump summit: for folks paying attention, the anti-Trumpers, never-Trumpers, and the mainstream media were already reporting negative stories on Trump's nominee for the Supreme Court even before Trump had named a nominee. And we're being asked to believe the reporting coming out of the Trump-Putin summit? Those stories were written as soon as the "summit" was announced, months ago.

For Jane Nielson and Art Berman. From Reuters --
The world's biggest oil traders are counting hefty losses after a surprise doubling in the price discount of U.S. light crude to benchmark Brent in just a month, as surging U.S production upends the market.
For those that understand the alphabet soup, the spread is: WTCLc1-LCOc1.
Trading desks of oil major BP and merchants Vitol, Gunvor, and Trafigura have recorded losses in the tens of millions of dollars each as a result of the "whipsaw" move when the spread reached more than $11.50 a barrel in June.
Duck and hide: this is being reported in multiple British tabloids, but we will link the oilprice.com story.  There are actually two stories here. First, short term, Ireland needs to get its crude oil reserves out of the UK before Brexit; and second, long term, Ireland could become the first country in the world to quit fossil fuel investment altogether, after the Fossil Fuel Divestment bill was passed by the country's lower house last week.

We also learn in the article that EU countries must keep emergency stocks of crude oil and/or petroleum products equal to at least 90 days of net imorts or 61 days of consumption, whichever is higher.

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Woodworking Course

The granddaughters are kept busy with various "schools" throughout the summer -- computer coding, sailing, athletics, cooking, baking, etc.

Olivia was enrolled in a week-long, half-day only wood working course. No power tools were allowed due to liability issues so all sawing, sanding, and nailing was done "by hand."

Olivia made a "miniature" Adirondack chair for Sophia. Here she is putting on the finishing touches:

Active Rigs At 69 In North Dakota -- July 16, 2018

Active rigs:

$68.06↓↓↓7/16/201807/16/201707/16/201607/16/201507/16/2014
Active Rigs69582974192

Fourteen new permits:
  • Operators: XTO (6); CLR (6): Whiting (2)
  • Fields: Charlson (McKenzie), East Fork (Williams), Pembroke (McKenzie(
  • Comments: XTO has permits for a 6-well Harley Federal pad in SESE 15-153-96; CLR has permits for a 6-well Durant pad in SESW 12-155-99; Whiting has permits for a 2-well Stenehjem pad in SESE 7-149-98;
One permit renewed: Resource Energy Can-Am renewed a Curtis permit in Divide County.

No permits canceled.

One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 33240, n/d, is now on conf status, Oasis, Muri 5198 12--4 7B, will be tracked as a DUC since no data was released

Dakota Federal And Big Gulch -- XTO -- Haystack Butte

Some of these wells have been discussed before.

The wells, to the west --
  • 19073, 1,348, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16, Haystack Butte, t10/10; cum 303K 6/19; note production jump 5/17 in spreadsheet below at time neighboring wells fracked; this well not re-fracked according to FracFocus;
  • 30533, 1,308, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16C, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 153K 6/19;
  • 30534, 1,795, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16H, Haystack Butte, t5/17; cum 128K 6/19;
  • 30535, 2,010, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16d, Haystack Butte, 40 stages; 6.6 million lbs, t5/17; cum 172K 6/19;
  • 30760, 1,844, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16EXH, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 146K 6/19;
To the east --
  • 30797, 1,912, XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16A, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 152K 6/19;
  • 30798, 1,398, XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16E, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 107K 6/19;
  • 30799, 1,844, XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16B, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 136K 6/19;
  • 19072, 152 (no typo), XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 232K 6/19; big jump in production in 9/16; see below; this well was fracked in 2011 and 2013, but not in 2016;

The graphics:







19073:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-201831292926872305765476220
BAKKEN4-20182165262974224200
BAKKEN3-20181314131494137726281777834
BAKKEN2-20182849475112435276767032608
BAKKEN1-20183166926555443610197101050
BAKKEN12-201731570857583804786177580
BAKKEN11-201730513151184777720071480
BAKKEN10-2017245269511151517510737291
BAKKEN9-201716273126352561407840600
BAKKEN8-20170000000
BAKKEN7-20170020000
BAKKEN6-20175173355243341238102
BAKKEN5-20173115599171261622922536167085740
BAKKEN4-2017116799508829874932758283432
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-2017006900000
BAKKEN1-201725527756546057785476210
BAKKEN12-20163066165901775611916102011420

19072:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-201830289129491181433343110
BAKKEN4-20182523132166763285728350
BAKKEN3-201822166617071633342033920
BAKKEN2-201824306331232727272626960
BAKKEN1-201817258824302065285127990
BAKKEN12-20171212131395795162716110
BAKKEN11-201730390738292486540753750
BAKKEN10-201723408941502926534953090
BAKKEN9-201716261424001853349634650
BAKKEN8-20171442440
BAKKEN7-20170020000
BAKKEN6-201743303702993573560
BAKKEN5-201719398239714546562656080
BAKKEN4-201710238630545389253825250
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-2017190014014
BAKKEN1-20172776747730556913591114491890
BAKKEN12-2016301053510178808120074158103977
BAKKEN11-2016301185111772931121468179993174
BAKKEN10-20163114008143361316125109220292775
BAKKEN9-20162013152129551128525495184756887
BAKKEN8-20168464242017154458045300
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-20160000000
BAKKEN1-20160000000
BAKKEN12-20150000000
BAKKEN11-20150000000
BAKKEN10-20150000000
BAKKEN9-20150000000
BAKKEN8-20150000000
BAKKEN7-20150000000
BAKKEN6-20150000000
BAKKEN5-201586911148358110190353
BAKKEN4-20152923652466124546453961162
BAKKEN3-20152825412569129514216881

WTI Breaks Below $70 At Height Of US Driving Season; Talk Of Opening US SPR -- July 16, 2018; Oasis Reports A Nice Well With Only 4 Million Lbs Sand/Ceramic -- Less Than Half Commonly Used In The Bakken

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Bear market? From Market Watch --


SPR talk: over at Twitter, from the Reuters oil analyst based in London --



Russia: the real reason WTI is coming down is this story -- Russia is considering bringing on even more production. The interesting thing is that Trump wants the price of oil to be brought down, and going to Russia now to talk to Putin gives them something to talk about.

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Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today:

Monday, July 16, 2018:
  • 33995, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-1807H-7, Blue Buttes,
Sunday, July 15, 2018:
  • 33996, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-1807H-6, Blue Buttes,
  • 33961, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 4-20-17-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake,
Saturday, July 14, 2018:
  • 33048, 614, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 12T, Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, mesh, large sand, medium sand, medium ceramic, t1/18; cum 124K 5/18;
Friday, July 13, 2018:
  • None.
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Active rigs:

$69.41↓↓7/16/201807/16/201707/16/201607/16/201507/16/2014
Active Rigs67582974192

RBN Energy: Texas fractionation capacity beyond the Mont Belvieu Hub, part 5.
Mont Belvieu may be the epicenter of NGL storage, fractionation and distribution along the Gulf Coast, but the rest of Texas offers almost half as much fractionation capacity — about 1 MMb/d of it — and a good bit of storage and pipeline connectivity too. These are particularly important facts in the summer of 2018, when demand for fractionation services in Mont Belvieu is at or near an all-time high and increasing volumes of NGLs are headed toward the hub. So what else has the Lone Star State got on the fractionation and NGL storage front? And are these assets experiencing the same strong demand as their counterparts in Mont Belvieu? Today, we continue our review of fractionators and key NGL-related infrastructure.
With 2.1 MMb/d of existing fractionation capacity, more than 250 MMbbl of salt-cavern storage, a spaghetti bowl of incoming and outgoing pipelines, and ethane and LPG export terminals nearby, Mont Belvieu is to NGLs what the Beatles — the group behind this blog series’ title song — are to the era of rock and roll bands:  the undisputed king.  And like Sir Paul McCartney’s bank account (he’s rock’s only billionaire), Mont Belvieu keeps growing; another 465 Mb/d of fractionators are under development and scheduled to come online over the next couple of years. But NGL production has been rising fast, and so has the need for more fractionation capacity — the mixed NGLs that come out of gas processing plants aren’t of use to anyone until they are fractionated into purity products (ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane and natural gasoline). The problem is, new fractionators in Mont Belvieu haven’t been coming online as quickly as the need for them. Until recently, producers had been reluctant to commit to building new fractionation capacity, so existing plants have been running flat out to keep pace.