Active Rigs At 69 In North Dakota -- July 16, 2018

Active rigs:

$68.06↓↓↓	7/16/2018	07/16/2017	07/16/2016	07/16/2015	07/16/2014
Active Rigs	69	58	29	74	192

Fourteen new permits:

• Operators: XTO (6); CLR (6): Whiting (2)
• Fields: Charlson (McKenzie), East Fork (Williams), Pembroke (McKenzie(
• Comments: XTO has permits for a 6-well Harley Federal pad in SESE 15-153-96; CLR has permits for a 6-well Durant pad in SESW 12-155-99; Whiting has permits for a 2-well Stenehjem pad in SESE 7-149-98;

One permit renewed: Resource Energy Can-Am renewed a Curtis permit in Divide County.

No permits canceled.

One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:

• 33240, n/d, is now on conf status, Oasis, Muri 5198 12--4 7B, will be tracked as a DUC since no data was released

Dakota Federal And Big Gulch -- XTO -- Haystack Butte

Some of these wells have been discussed before.

The wells, to the west --

• 19073, 1,348, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16, Haystack Butte, t10/10; cum 303K 6/19; note production jump 5/17 in spreadsheet below at time neighboring wells fracked; this well not re-fracked according to FracFocus;
• 30533, 1,308, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16C, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 153K 6/19;
• 30534, 1,795, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16H, Haystack Butte, t5/17; cum 128K 6/19;
• 30535, 2,010, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16d, Haystack Butte, 40 stages; 6.6 million lbs, t5/17; cum 172K 6/19;
• 30760, 1,844, XTO, Dakota Federal 41X-16EXH, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 146K 6/19;

To the east --

• 30797, 1,912, XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16A, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 152K 6/19;
• 30798, 1,398, XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16E, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 107K 6/19;
• 30799, 1,844, XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16B, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 136K 6/19;
• 19072, 152 (no typo), XTO, Big Gulch Federal 41X-16, Haystack Butte, t4/17; cum 232K 6/19; big jump in production in 9/16; see below; this well was fracked in 2011 and 2013, but not in 2016;

The graphics:

19073:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	2929	2687	2305	7654	7622	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	2	165	262	97	422	420	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	13	1413	1494	1377	2628	1777	834
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	4947	5112	4352	7676	7032	608
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	6692	6555	4436	10197	10105	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	5708	5758	3804	7861	7758	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	5131	5118	4777	7200	7148	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	24	5269	5111	5151	7510	7372	91
BAKKEN	9-2017	16	2731	2635	2561	4078	4060	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	5	173	355	243	341	238	102
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	15599	17126	16229	22536	16708	5740
BAKKEN	4-2017	11	6799	5088	29874	9327	5828	3432
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	0	0	690	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	25	5277	5654	6057	7854	7621	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	30	6616	5901	7756	11916	10201	1420

19072:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	30	2891	2949	1181	4333	4311	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	25	2313	2166	763	2857	2835	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	22	1666	1707	1633	3420	3392	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	24	3063	3123	2727	2726	2696	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	17	2588	2430	2065	2851	2799	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	12	1213	1395	795	1627	1611	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	3907	3829	2486	5407	5375	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	23	4089	4150	2926	5349	5309	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	16	2614	2400	1853	3496	3465	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	1	4	4	2	4	4	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2017	4	330	370	299	357	356	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	19	3982	3971	4546	5626	5608	0
BAKKEN	4-2017	10	2386	3054	5389	2538	2525	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	1	9	0	0	14	0	14
BAKKEN	1-2017	27	7674	7730	5569	13591	11449	1890
BAKKEN	12-2016	30	10535	10178	8081	20074	15810	3977
BAKKEN	11-2016	30	11851	11772	9311	21468	17999	3174
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	14008	14336	13161	25109	22029	2775
BAKKEN	9-2016	20	13152	12955	11285	25495	18475	6887
BAKKEN	8-2016	8	4642	4201	7154	4580	4530	0
BAKKEN	7-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2015	8	691	1148	358	1101	903	53
BAKKEN	4-2015	29	2365	2466	1245	4645	3961	162
BAKKEN	3-2015	28	2541	2569	1295	1421	688	1

WTI Breaks Below $70 At Height Of US Driving Season; Talk Of Opening US SPR -- July 16, 2018; Oasis Reports A Nice Well With Only 4 Million Lbs Sand/Ceramic -- Less Than Half Commonly Used In The Bakken

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Bear market? From Market Watch --

SPR talk: over at Twitter, from the Reuters oil analyst based in London --

Russia: the real reason WTI is coming down is this story -- Russia is considering bringing on even more production. The interesting thing is that Trump wants the price of oil to be brought down, and going to Russia now to talk to Putin gives them something to talk about.

***************************

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, today:

Monday, July 16, 2018:

• 33995, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-1807H-7, Blue Buttes,

Sunday, July 15, 2018:

• 33996, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-1807H-6, Blue Buttes,
• 33961, SI/NC, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 4-20-17-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake,

Saturday, July 14, 2018:

• 33048, 614, Oasis, Patsy 5198 14-17 12T, Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, mesh, large sand, medium sand, medium ceramic, t1/18; cum 124K 5/18;

Friday, July 13, 2018:

• None.

************************

Active rigs:

$69.41↓↓	7/16/2018	07/16/2017	07/16/2016	07/16/2015	07/16/2014
Active Rigs	67	58	29	74	192

RBN Energy: Texas fractionation capacity beyond the Mont Belvieu Hub, part 5.

Mont Belvieu may be the epicenter of NGL storage, fractionation and distribution along the Gulf Coast, but the rest of Texas offers almost half as much fractionation capacity — about 1 MMb/d of it — and a good bit of storage and pipeline connectivity too. These are particularly important facts in the summer of 2018, when demand for fractionation services in Mont Belvieu is at or near an all-time high and increasing volumes of NGLs are headed toward the hub. So what else has the Lone Star State got on the fractionation and NGL storage front? And are these assets experiencing the same strong demand as their counterparts in Mont Belvieu? Today, we continue our review of fractionators and key NGL-related infrastructure.

With 2.1 MMb/d of existing fractionation capacity, more than 250 MMbbl of salt-cavern storage, a spaghetti bowl of incoming and outgoing pipelines, and ethane and LPG export terminals nearby, Mont Belvieu is to NGLs what the Beatles — the group behind this blog series’ title song — are to the era of rock and roll bands:  the undisputed king.  And like Sir Paul McCartney’s bank account (he’s rock’s only billionaire), Mont Belvieu keeps growing; another 465 Mb/d of fractionators are under development and scheduled to come online over the next couple of years. But NGL production has been rising fast, and so has the need for more fractionation capacity — the mixed NGLs that come out of gas processing plants aren’t of use to anyone until they are fractionated into purity products (ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane and natural gasoline). The problem is, new fractionators in Mont Belvieu haven’t been coming online as quickly as the need for them. Until recently, producers had been reluctant to commit to building new fractionation capacity, so existing plants have been running flat out to keep pace.

Random Look At A Great BR Remington Well In Blue Buttes -- July 15, 2018

The well:

• 32722, 533, BR, Remington 3D UTFH, Blue Buttes, t7/17; cum 270K 5/18; neighbor: #17118 -- remains off-line -- but see this post); looks like I need to start tracking the BR Remington wells; they are now tracked here;
  

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	8	7095	7197	3219	15796	15784	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	15050	15087	4702	27892	27875	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	20286	20431	10998	38245	38223	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	1	49866	49633	13298	77601	77563	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	28524	28533	16057	56189	55686	478
BAKKEN	12-2017	1	27656	27698	10665	67088	67058	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	7	29915	30035	3	27343	27337	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	27	26349	26269	20356	36384	35495	865
BAKKEN	9-2017	29	32824	33069	11507	31881	31519	342
BAKKEN	8-2017	4	31758	31249	24073	36729	26713	10007
BAKKEN	7-2017	19	684	684	3	1190	1173	0

Local Update On Keystone XL -- July 15, 2018

Updates

July 17, 2018: from the BillingsGazette -- 283 miles across Montana -- 

July 16, 2018: back story, I guess, from Reuters, May 3, 2018 -- TransCanada will start work on Keystone XL in Montana in autumn, 2018 --

• preliminary work to begin in the fall of 2018 in Montan
• full construction to commence in 2019
• information in a latter from the US State Dept to "Native American" tribes, specifically
• the Assiniboine
• the Sioux tribes

No mention whether a letter was sent to Pocahontas but I assume as a Congressperson she gets an info copy.

Original Post

A reader alerted me to "folks in the local area" (southwest North Dakota / eastern Montana) preparing for "action" near Baker, Montana, as TransCanada prepares to start laying pipeline.

Key locations:

• Baker, MT: will be an entry terminal (an "on-ramp") for the Keystone XL
• the pipeline route appears to carry it near Camp Crook to the south of Baker
• Gascoyne, ND: east of Bowman, ND -- a staging area for Keystone XL pipeline? See below.

I believe the Keystone XL completely skirts North Dakota.

The question was asked in an e-mail: where will TransCanada first start working in this area?

One reader who apparently knows the area well and has his ear close to the ground suggested in an e-mail:

It sounds like they will start hauling to Baker first? 

Bowman, Baker, Buffalo, & Camp Crook have had meetings .... 

Once they get closer to Camp Crook I do not know which highway they will be hauling on but Gascoyne will be a target area as folks can hold up the progress of the line at that location. 

Maybe Hwy 85?

Gascoyne, near Scranton, ND, is a few miles to the southeast of Bowman. See this post from several years ago.

Gascoyne, from The Bismarck Tribune, January 26, 2017 -- more than a year ago

• 230 miles worth of heavy steel pipe in a vast laydown yard, alongside highway 12
• unloaded there in 2011
• green-coated pipe owned by TransCanada
• the pipe is stacked near the BNSF Railway loop between the ghost town of Gascoyne and the grain elevator town of Scranton

This is the map of the towns mentioned in the e-mail:

Route of the Keystone XL: