Thursday, June 28, 2018

Do The Benefits Of Global Warming Outweigh The Risks -- For Oenophiles, Apparently, Yes -- June 28, 2018

The other day I asked this rhetorical question:
Speaking of which: do the benefits of global warming -- if it exists -- outweigh the risks?
Now today, this from The WSJ article on grapes, wines, and the Mosel River / Valley in Germany, near the French frontier:
Some Mosel vineyards, such as the famed Bernkasteler Doctor, are nearly 100 years old, while others are quite new. There has been a good deal of planting in the region of late, particularly of non-Riesling grapes. The day after my visit, Mr. Selbach was planting Pinot Noir, which has become more common in the Mosel recently thanks to a warming trend. “Nothing has changed in the Mosel,” he said. But then he allowed, “The climate has gotten better.”
The weather was certainly warm the week of my late-April visit, which happened to coincide with spargelzeit (asparagus season). This season is short—April-June—so every restaurant around had at least one and often two or three asparagus dishes on the menu.
When I arrived at the Zeltinger Hof Gasthaus des Rieslings, the modest but charming hotel where I stayed, I found the proprietor, Markus Reis, laboring over a large pile of asparagus, shaving the thick stalks down to a more manageable size. (I found him repeating the task at breakfast time the following morning and again later that day.)
The same is being said of North Dakota and Montana. North Dakota is growing more corn, and Montana wheat production is increasing -- some say due to changing weather. It's all good.

Especially the wine.

I learned to love asparagus after living in Germany. 

A Thousand Miles From Nowhere, Dwight Yoakim

A Little Nostalgia Over A Glass Of Wine -- June 28, 2018

Twin Peaks theme song:



The music really seems to fit my mood this morning, and fit the mood for this next story.

We were stationed in Germany for three tours (Bitburg, Bitburg, Rhein-Main). At Bitburg we were just a short drive away from the Mosel River, sort of a Napa wine region -- but much, much better on so many levels.

The WSJ has a feature on the Mosel River / Valley this week. The headline: the wine destination only the pros know. Either that's a fake headline or I'm a wine pro. LOL.

From the article:
American wine drinkers don’t visit German wine regions the same way they do those in Italy or France. And yet the Mosel is one of the oldest, most beautiful wine regions in the world, home to small, charming villages with half-timbered houses and spectacular Riesling vineyards. 
Some of the vineyards are so steep they’re practically vertical. “You learn to dig in your heels,” said Johannes Selbach, owner of Selbach Oster winery, as we stood at the edge of the vertiginous Zeltinger Sonnenuhr vineyard, above the town of Zeltingen. Mr. Selbach lives there, in a generations-old waterfront house that’s regularly inundated when the Mosel river floods.
Mr. Selbach produces some of the region’s greatest Rieslings, and his family is one of several who have been growing grapes in the Mosel for hundreds of years. Unlike Tuscany or Bordeaux or, increasingly, Burgundy, the Mosel is almost entirely populated by small, family-owned wineries, operated by the producers themselves.
While in Germany we went on one or two wine tastings as a group arranged by the fighter squadron to which I was assigned.

The wine tasting consisted of a full German meal with multiple wines paired with each course. The dinner / tasting started about 4:00 p.m. and went to about 2:00 a.m. The vintners were always prepared to go longer, but Americans, I guess, have difficulty partying all night long.

Every wine was excellent, but the dessert wines -- Eisweins -- were priceless. I could seldom afford to buy an Eiswein. 

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Speaking of Nostalgia

I finished Max Boot's The Road Not Taken.

I wear my emotions on my sleeves, as they say. My eyes teared up as I came to the end of the book.

I will leave it at that. I guess I mentioned that last night. I had forgotten.

Federal Tax Credits For EVs -- Death Watch -- GM, Tesla -- June 28, 2028

Maxing out on tax credits: Tesla and GM will soon max out at 200,000. Track data here.

Do a google search and pages of links to Tesla and GM as their tax credits soon to expire. 

How it works:
  • full federal tax credit, for first 200,000 vehicles but "implemented" by quarter
  • phase out after 200,000 vehicles sold by a given manufacturer; those late "to the table" which actually benefit by this crazy rule
  • full federal tax credit for all EVs made by a given manufacturer through the quarter in which 200,000 vehicles are sold
  • full federal tax credit extends through one additional quarter for all EVs sold by that manufacturer during that "add-on" quarter
  • federal tax credit phases out over one full year
  • when the phase-out begins, the credit is halved for two quarters; in the third quarter it is 25%  of the original amount 
  • it comes out to four quarters because the first quarter after the 200,000 threshold is reached, there is no reduction in the federal credit but that's when the phase-out begins (typical bureaucratic obfuscation)
Everyone says the full tax credit is $7,500. Not true. The tax credit depends on the size of the vehicle and its battery capacity. The federal tax credit ranges from $2,500 to $7,500 per new EV purchased in the US.

Tesla and GM are down to their last couple of quarters. Any bet the US government will change the 200,000 threshold?

Meanwhile, rumor has it, Tesla won't meet its Model 3 goal -- Goldman Sachs story here. 

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Rumor Has It, Adele

A shout-out to KXT radio -- 91.7 FM --  in Fort Worth, TX -- perhaps the best music radio station ever. An "NPR" station.

New IRS Form -- June 28, 2018

This is it, a draft of the soon-to-be released Form 1040. One folds it in the middle and it is almost "postcard" size. Staggering.

Copies of old and new forms side-by-side at CBS News.

Front of post card: your name and signature.

Back of post card: send me all  your money.

And just think: all your identifying information -- social security number, address, dependents, etc., out in the open -- on a post card.

Thursday, June 28, 2018 -- North Dakota Active Rigs Up To 66

Wow, lots of stuff today. Since I have limited time at the moment, I'm just going to list the stories to which I need to return.

Top energy story of the day (so far): SRE will sell entire wind and solar portfolio. This is huge. Maybe Sempra Energy can sell entire portfolio to GE. Data points:
  • announcement comes less than a month after activist investor got involved
  • pressured by shareholders
  • will sell several energy infrastructure assets, including its entire portfolio of US wind and solar assets, as well as certain US midstream assets 
  • SRE jumped 17% at opening on June 11, 2018, when news of activist investor bought shares
  • on this news, SRE up slightly on a day when the market is going to fall again (based on futures and final 1Q18 GDP reading)
  • connecting the dots: note data point below -- US preparing for "century of natural gas supply"
Enbridge Line 3: latest news. It's a process. Regardless of the decision, it will end up in court. North Korean nuclear disarmament will happen faster.

New IRS form: postcard size. Pretty much. Too bad it's even more difficult to complete.

Trump: four recent court victories.

Iran sanctions: Trump winning. Last hold-out -- India -- appears to be preparing for cut in oil imports from Iran. Methinks Russia and Saudi Arabia are loving this.

Iran sanctions: Iran says removing oil from market by November as called for by US is impossible. Inshallah.  

Disappointing 1Q18 GDP: final reading -- 2.0% vs 2.2% reading expected. Futures down. Maybe that fourth rate hike scheduled for later this year not such a great idea.

Maxing out on tax credits: Tesla and GM will soon max out at 200,000. Track data here.

Capex on pipeline spending: Russia and the United States. Story here.

Jobs report (unemployment claims): link here. Forecast: 220K; actual, 227K.

US crude oil supply: dropping fast. From 30+ days of supply to 23 days in less than a couple of years.

US natural gas: "never" going to run out. Natural gas industry sees "century of supply" in US shale. Projected growth is staggering:
The United States currently produces about 72 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas each day, a figure that is expected to grow by 7 bcf per day this year. And within 20 years, U.S. shale gas output should grow an additional 60 percent.
Meanwhile, things not looking good in Europe: Groningen gas output falling faster than planned. 

DOA: the Biden rule. Senator Schumer suggested President Trump should follow the "Biden rule" with regard to nominating/confirming the next Supreme Court Justice. See poll at sidebar at the right.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$72.46→6/28/201806/28/201706/28/201606/28/201506/28/2014
Active Rigs6658307519

RBN Energy: dynamite! Kinder Morgan and EagleClaw Midstream's proposed Permian highway gas pipeline will be a monster.

Wells that should be coming off confidential list today:
  • 30230, conf, Nine Point Energy, Simpson 151-102-5-8-4H, Elk, a nice well;
  • 24521, conf, Slawson, Gabriel 7-36-25TFH, North Tobacco Garden, no production data,