Thursday, March 29, 2018

The Political Page, T+29 -- March 29, 2018

One of Vic Hanson's best replies to an "angry reader." In one or two short paragraphs, Vic Hanson has completely encapsulated the political history of the Obama administration and the campaign of 2016.

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The Library Page
  • A Night to Remember, Walter Lord, c. 1955
In 1898 a struggling author named Morgan Robertson concocted a novel about a fabulous Atlantic liner, far larger than any that had ever been built. Robertson loaded his ship with rich and complacent people and then wrecked it one cold April night on an iceberg. This somehow showed the futility of everything, and in fact, the book was called Futility when it appeared that year, published by the firm of M. F. Mansfield.
Fourteen years later a British shipping company named the White Star Line built a steamer remarkably like the one in Robertson's novel. The new liner was 66,000 tons displacement; Robertson's was 70,000 tons. The real ship was 882.5 feet long; the fictional one was 800 feet. Both vessels were triple screw and could make 24 - 25 knots. Both could carry about 3,000 people, and both had enough lifeboats for only a fraction of this number. But, then, this didn't seem to matter because both were labeled "unsinkable." 
On April 10, 1912, the real ship left Southampton on her maiden voyage to New York. Her cargo included a priceless copy of the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam and a list of passengers collectively worth $250 million dollars. On her way over she too struck an iceberg and went down on a cold April night.
Robertson called his ship the Titan; the White Star Line called its ship the Titanic. This is the story of her last night.
Nobel Peace Prize, 2019 (posted at 11:06 a.m. Central Time, March 29, 2018):
  • shared: Kim Jong Un, Xi Jinping, and DJT 
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The Book For Today

The Last Englishman: The Double Life of Arthur Ransome
Roland Chambers
c. 2009

Arthur Ransome: among the handful of writers who make up the British children's canon which includes AA Milne, JRR Tolkien and CS Lewis
  • Ransome, today, is best known for Swallows and Amazons and eleven further stories written one after another on an almost yearly basis between 1930 and 1947; twelve "immortal" books; wrote them on his return from Russia in 1928
  • 1917 - 1924: the Russian correspondent for the Daily News and the Manchester Guardian
  • Bolshevik sympathizer
  • lover, and later the husband, of Evgenia Shelepina, Trotsky's private secretary
  • friends included Karl Radek, the Bolshevik's Chief of Propaganda, and Felix Dzerzhinsky, founder of the secret police
  • denied the horrors that the followed the Russian revolution; became the bane of the British establishment
  • his name, and by extension his character, have become identified with a particular vision of England: a pastoral, old-fashioned utopia set in the Lake District sometime between the wars, with its roots in the Edwardian heyday of the British empire
Chapter 21: Swallows and Amazons
  • the Great War was directly responsible for a greater number of future conflicts than any previous war in history
  • think of the books published directly after the Great War
    • TS Elit's The Waste Land
    • James Joyce's Ulysses
    • Ludwig Wittgenstein's Tractatus Philosophicus, revolutions in poetry, the novel and philosophy
    • Hermann Hess, Demian: "Whoever wants to be born must first destroy the world."
    • PG Wodehouse: My Man Jeeves; enchanted his readers by forgetting the war altogether, or rather, by perfecting the art of ignoring what could not be forgotten
    • some had foreshadowed the Great War: Thomas Hardy; Rudyard Kipling; Joseph Conrad
    • others stepped out of the Great War, fully Grown: Ernest Hemingway, F Scott Fitzgerald
    • others: Siegfried Sassoon, Wilfred Owen
  • returns to England, 1924
  • August: first fishing article in the Guardian; earned him a place in angling history; on-going column, "Rod and Line"
  • Racundra earnings help pay for his barn he constructed as a study
  • 1924: spent Christmas in Egypt, covering the assassination of Lee Stack
  • 1925: back to Russia to write a brief history of Revolution commissioned by the Encyclopedia Brittanica
  • final political pamphlet: The Chinese Puzzle, November, 1927 
  • February, 1928: back to Russia; "the end of an epoch"
  • Stalin's victory over Trotsky, Ransome noted sadly, was essentially a bureaucratic coup de main
  • 1929: Ransome describes it as a "year of crisis"
  • Jonathan Cape approached him; Cape was then the foremost publisher of the day, who asked Ransome to put together a collection of political essays, the first of a series which Cape suggested might support him in old age
  • what Cape got was a selection from "Rod and Line" and a synopsis of The Swallows and the Amazons
  • 1930, returned to England; determined to devote himself entirely to his book
  • book dropped the The (s)
  • sold slowly at first but by third adventure, Peter Duck, a book set in the West Indies, the tide turned; he put all journalism other than literary reviews behind him
  • by 1948, shortly after the appearance of the twelfth and final book in the series, Great Northerns?, Cape had sold their millionth copy
  • died 1967, two years before Neil Armstrong walked on the moon
  • the majority of Ransome's papers can be found in the Brotherton Library at Leeds University, where Ann Farr, one of the talented few capable of deciphering his handwriting, began to catalogue them in the 1980s

The Market And Energy Page, T+29 -- March 29, 2018

Correction: earlier this week I wrote that we would know on Friday, 10:30 a.m. Central Time whether the market's surge on Monday was a dead cat bounce. The market is closed Friday. We will know today at the close whether Monday was a dead cat bounce:
  • if the market closes on a negative note, clearly Monday was a dead cat bounce
  • if the market closes less than 150 points up, Monday was likely a dead cat bounce
  • if the market closes between 151 points and 250 points up, Monday was NOT likely a dead cat bounce
  • if the market closes up more than 251 points today, Monday was clearly not a dead cat bounce [Later, the Dow closed UP 255 points -- which I would argue is a somewhat ambivalent response]
TSLA: On the last trading day of the quarter, and on a day the market is marginally higher, TSLA? Down another 3%; down almost $8. Could drop below $250/share. Did I hear someone say "ouch"? [Later, TSLA closed up over 3%; over $8/share.] [After market close and just ahead of a 3-day weekend Tesla announces a recall of 123,000 Model S cars over faulty steering component: the timing of the announcement is incredibly interesting. This has to leave a lot of TSLA "investors" a bit nervous -- buying TSLA at the close (when shares were moving up) and now not knowing what the recall will mean to TSLA when the market opens again -- a long, long three days from now.]

 The above posted at 7:14 p.m. Central Time, March 29, 2018.



Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. However, having said that, Grapevine, TX, is a nice place to visit this time of the year. Or, actually, any time of the year.

Biggest problem for Tesla: no moat.
  • at the high end: Jaguar + Waymo = I-Pace
  • at the low end: Hyundai just announced its EV entry 
 Second biggest problem for Tesla: minimal experience with manufacturing automobiles
  • Jaguar: long, long history
  • Hyundai: long, long history
Best thing going for Tesla: faith.
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Port Of North Dakota

Minot Daily News provides update.
  • the railhead / terminal / transloading facility leases land from the city of Minot
  • the port has not paid its lease in some time; the port has defaulted on many loans
  • the city has taken steps to terminate the lease with the port
  • the port has until April 30, 2018, to sort this out
  • port leases about 135 acres from the city of Minot
  • the city has capitalized about $1 million in rail and other infrastructure at the port 
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Frack Sand

Look at that amount of sand Enerplus used on this frack, reported today, almost 20 million lbs:
  • 33486, 1,667, Enerplus, Crane 150-94-33C-28H, Spotted Horn, 40 stages; 19.3 million lbs, mesh; t10/17; cum 184K 1/18; 
See results of other wells that came off confidential list this week at this post.

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Bakken Economy


Unemployment LOWEST In 45 Years -- President Trump Not Mentioned In The Article -- March 29, 2018

Econoday link:
  • prior revised: from 229K to 227K (better)
  • forecast for past week: 228K
  • actual: 215K -- wow!
  • new claims: a decrease of 12,000 
Pretty amazing. Lowest since January, 1973.

Waiting for the Trump tweet.

And President Trump won't get any credit.

And again, the word I seem to hear every time these great reports come out: "unexpectedly."

From Bloomberg:
U.S. filings for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week to the lowest level since January 1973, further evidence that the labor market remains tight, Labor Department figures showed Thursday.
  • jobless claims decreased by 12k to 215k (est. 230k)
  • continuing claims rose by 35k to 1.87m in week ended March 17 (data reported with one-week lag)
  • four-week average of initial claims, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, fell to 224,500 from the prior week's 225,000
 With regard to the graphic and January, 1973, above: it looks like the '60's came to an end in 1973.

Meanwhile, with regard to consumer sentiment:


Taxable Sales And Purchases -- North Dakota-- 2017 Data Released -- Not Fake News But Incredibly Poor Headline / Poor Reporting

To the reader who sent me the link/story:
Wow, wow, wow -- what a poor headline.

2017 over 2016:
Every major city in ND showed negative  change 2017 over 2016 EXCEPT Dickinson and Williston. Even Minot showed a slight decrease. Bismarck, Fargo, Grand Forks -- all negative.

Williston: 24% increase in taxable sales and purchases year-over-year.
The only reason ND was even positive by 3% was due completely to the Bakken.

Even Minot was slightly negative. 

The full PDF tables are here.
I will come back to this later when I have more time. Blogging will be delayed today.

I am not sure if all links work but we will get that sorted out later.

This is the reason for being behind in blogging. Re-reading an expert's analysis of the Bakken. I'm trying to see what I missed. It will take me most of the day to get through that report.

Active Rigs Hold Steady At 62 -- March 29, 2018

Updates

Later, 9:32 p.m. Central Time: this is why I love to blog. I thought someone would "call me" on my habit of calculating "deals" on a per-net-acre basis. It turns out I'm not the only one. See this post over at oilprice.com:
To be sure, investors were not exactly enthused by the deal, which amounted to a greater than $70,000 per-acre price tag.
Original Post
 
Permian consolidation. This may be the biggest news of the day in the shale sector: Permian oil producer to buy rival RSP Permian.
  • $8 billion; all stock deal
  • RSP:29% premium for shareholders
  • 92,000 net acres
  • will make Concho one of the biggest producers in the Bakken
  • Permian could report as much as 3 million bopd in March, 2018
  • back-of-the-envelope: $8 billion / 92,000 acres = $87,000 / acre 
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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.32→3/29/201803/29/201703/29/201603/29/201503/29/2014
Active Rigs62493197194

RBN Energy: why $3 natural gas continues to elude the market.