Wednesday, March 7, 2018

WTI Sinks -- March 7, 2018 -- For The Granddaughters: Pangolins and Palindromes

Now that the data has finally sunk in -- it took about two hours -- the price of WTI plummets. There are many, many reasons for this, but this must be one of the bigger reasons: re-balancing is trending in the wrong direction; re-balancing is now back up to 29 weeks.

In addition, refineries are only operating at 88% capacity and yet US gasoline inventories are at record highs. Driving season may not "save" the crude oil bulls. Saudi has to be alarmed. The kingdom recently cut their price to regain market share in China/Asia.

After the weekly petroleum data was released by the EIA, the price of WTI slumped 3% and is now at risk of closing below the floor ($60/bbl).

I have a lot of graphics to post, but I'm in the mood for something else right now, so I will post those graphics later.

************************************
Notes For The Granddaughters

Prelapsarian.

No, I did not know what that meant either until I looked it up.

I came across it in a short note on the pangolin in the current issue of  London Review of Books. I canceled my subscription to The New York Review of Books because the editor is still affected with TDS. I just couldn't take it any more. Unfortunately the New York Review might be better and more relevant for my tastes than the London Review which I have not yet canceled. The jury is still out on whether I cancel the London Review also.

Anyway:
  • prelapsarian: characteristic of the time before the Fall of Man; innocent and unspoiled; in the context of the word as originally "invented," it does not fit this short essay very well, but that's another story
  • pangolin: a scaly anteater (more below)
  • Harare: the capital and most populous city of Zimbabwe
Data points:
  • pangolins: currently  the most trafficked animals in the world, their scales used in traditional Chinese medicines and their flesh eaten as a delicy
  • roasted pangolin meat is thought to stimulate lactation and improve blood circulation
  • Beijing customs have seized more than tonne of scales being shipped into China; each tonne is the equivalent of 1,660 animals
Pangolins:
  • prelapsarian
  • pre-historic, in fact
  • more than 80 million years old
  • humans: 8 million years old
  • eight species of pangolin: two are listed as Critically Endangered in the IUCN Red list of Threatened Species
  • global warming won't kill them but the Chinese will
More about pangolins from wiki
  • one extant familiy
    • one Asian genus with four species
    • one African genus with two species
    • another African genus with two species
  • with their keratin scales, they are the only known mammals with this feature
  • the tongue of a pangolin is longer than its body; the tongue is kept furled in an interior pounch near its hip
 ********************************
Bonus Note For The Granddaughters

CRISPR.

CRISPR-Cas9.

Until this week, I knew nothing of significance about CRISPR. For whatever reason I mentioned CRISPR to our 14-year-old granddaughter on the way to school the other day, and she became incredibly animated. She loved "CRISPR" and knew more about it than I did.

Whatever she knows about CRISPR she learned on her own. I doubt they have yet studied it in high school, although it's possible it's been mentioned

I'll have fun talking to her about CRISPR over the next few weeks.

CRISPR is part of the DNA genome. Back in 1993, a biologist studying bacteria in Spanish swamps, found bacteria whose DNA contained repeated sequences of DNA that did not correspond to anything previously seen.

Because of the nature of these repeated sequences (clusters, regularly interspersed, and short palindromic repeats) he labeled them CRISPR for short.

It turns out that these palindromic repeats of "meaningless" genome were actually pieces of viral DNA -- viruses that had invaded bacteria as pathogens (bacteriophages -- to eat bacteria).

It is hypothesized that by incorporating this "meaningless" viral genome, bacteria are more quickly able to defend against a virus from attacking it (a second time).

And like everything else in biology, there is more to the story.

Molecular biology dogma: DNA makes RNA makes protein.

CRISPER makes RNA but this RNA does not make a protein. By itself, the CRISPR-RNA is worthless.

But, as it turns out, as in a Rudyard Kipling "just so" story, bacteria also contain an enzyme (or protein) called Cas9 -- short for CRISPER-associated protein 9. If the biologists had had a sense of humor, it would be easier to remember as"Mama Cass protein" -- CRISPR-associated protein that loves to eat.

But a very special way of eating.

As noted above CRISPER-RNA by itself is worthless.

But with the Cas9 enzyme "stuff happens." Cas9 enzyme is a "cutter."

CRISPER-RNA guides Cas9 enzyme to the virus with the corresponding DNA genome.

At the viral DNA genome, the Cas9 enzyme gets to work, cutting out the viral genome that corresponds to CRISPR-RNA.

Pretty clever, huh?

Know who connected the dots, figured this out?

A Danish yogurt company. Yup, Danisco -- a Danish yogurt company.

Danisco is now owned by Dow Dupont.

Researchers now use CRISPER-Cas9 to target any region/gene in any DNA genome and cut it out / remove it. By removing a gene, researchers are better able to discern the purpose of a previously non-understood gene.

If a bacteria is able to do what a bacteria normally does and now loses a certain function because it has lost a certain gene, scientists have a pretty good idea of what that gene must be responsible for.

Likewise, researchers can do that to any mammalian genome.

Much, much more to the story but I now have enough to share with our granddaughter and still be able to keep up with her.

This was from "Diary" in the current issue of London Review of Books. Another source is here.

Random Look At A Re-Entry, Re-Fracked CLR Bridger Well -- March 7, 2018

This is (another) great example of Bakken 2.0 and how traditional methods of "evaluating" an unconventional play simply don't work. It's my contention that Wall Street analysts have not yet noted this. One can be sure that the Saudis understand this as do the Russians. 

I track the Bridger wells here, though that page has not been updated in a long time.

The well:
  • 17089, 400, CLR, Bridger 44-14H, Rattlesnake Point, 33-025-00731, a very nice well; t4/08; cum 247K 1/18; 
Note the permit/file number -- #17089. This well was originally drilled back in 2008 -- before the Bakken boom hit its stride. This well was recently put back on the confidential list and today it comes off the confidential list.

As an aside, when I first started following the Bakken, I was told by a Bakken "expert" at another discussion group, that a North Dakota well could only be on the confidential list once. So much to learn. And I probably only know 1% of all there is to know.

So, what's going on? I don't know.

Let's explore together. As noted, the well has been producing since 2008. The first six months of production data:

BAKKEN9-200823351731071041309230920
BAKKEN8-20083141644350620341834180
BAKKEN7-200831544653461191403540350
BAKKEN6-20083042334102668309830980
BAKKEN5-200831742274541733536453640
BAKKEN4-2008309367982061000

Not very exciting, huh?

Now, look at this. Incredible, huh, for a re-entry, a re-fracked well?

17089:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-201823125071208797521322912402827
BAKKEN12-201717801886246968988098800
BAKKEN11-20173016622169011990719639196390
BAKKEN10-20173122673219041694124616227151901
BAKKEN9-20172718302184651558919122161962926
BAKKEN8-20173127510274882742728501217386763
BAKKEN7-20175210220478371178851093
BAKKEN6-2017151923013063170317
BAKKEN5-20170000000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-20160000000
BAKKEN10-20160000000
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-201663356448743366367

From the file report:

The newest data has not yet been scanned in by the NDIC. The cover page says the well is still confidential but I assume we will see the updated file in the next week or so.

The most recent geologist's report was received by the NDIC on October 3, 2016. It was spud September 17, 2016, and drilling ceased on September 19, 2016 or two days of drilling. From the file report:
  • the Bridger 44-14H is a horizontal re-entry well targeting the middle Bakken porosity
  • the rig started drilling ahead in the re-entry middle Bakken lateral at a MD of 20,845' on September 18th, 2016, at 9:44 p.m. CDT
  • gas ranged from 1,400 to 2,100 units 
From an earlier sundry form:
  • CLR planned to re-enter and deepen the existing lateral of the Bridger 44-14H; plans to extend the existing lateral by 336 feet to a TVD of 11,090 feet
  • that was an open hole frack with slightly more than a million lbs of sand
The sister well on the same pad as #17089:
  • 32740, 1,485, CLR, Bridger 10-14H2, Rattlesnake Point, 41 stages; 10.2 million lbs, t9/17; cum 137K 1/18;
The nearest well to the west of these two wells, on another pad, is:
  • 31847, 1,515, CLR, Bridger 9-14H1, Rattlesnake Point, 40 stages; 15.1 million lbs, t8/17; cum 125K 1/18; 
One can assume the re-entered Bridger 44-14H was fracked with a similar amount of sand.

Note the production profile. If one simply looks at the "IP test date" and the current date, one misses much of the story. According to the "IP test date" this well has been producing for eight months. In fact, only five months suggest some level of "unconstrained production":

Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20183122479225922909130923229098014
BAKKEN12-2017312503024856424722633525701634
BAKKEN11-201721350143528511512144468
BAKKEN10-20172818550186092393321854189962858
BAKKEN9-20173022351223863482727299207146585
BAKKEN8-20173133264331345136333145244508695
BAKKEN7-2017519011846591427118091
BAKKEN6-20172003148000

Aha! It just dawned on me. There's another way to find frack data. Let's see if FracFocus has any new data.

Yup, there it is, fracked 4/28/17 - 5/19/17.
  • water : 85% of total proppant by weight
  • water: 10,332,000 gallons
  • sand: 14.76% by weight
  • a gallon of water weighs 8.345404 million pounds
  • 10,332 million gallons of water weight 86.224714 million pounds
  • 85% of what = 86.224714 million lbs
  • 101.4408 million lbs total proppant (sand+water+all that other stuff)
  • 14.76% of 101.4408 = 15 million lbs of sand 
  • my numbers may be off a bit but the neighboring wells were fracked with 10 million lbs and 15 million lbs of sand
Comments:
  • with the exception of sand, there was very little additional cost to re-frack this well; the frack spreads were already in the area
  • in the process, CLR essentially got a new well
  • CLR did not have to drill a new well: it did not have to build a new pad; it did not have to pay a bonus for a new lease; it did not have to wait for permits; minimal cost in re-evaluating the well; developing design plans, etc
  • absolutely (well, almost absolutely) no risk of a dry hole (yes, a few re-entry wells are failures)
  • a lot of the extra cost of the sand and re-frack was already "covered" by fracking neighboring wells (I won't go through the details)
  • they simply drilled less than two more days, extending the horizontal in the process 
  • the Bakken 10,000 to 20,000 wells that are candidates for re-works; mini-refracks; re-entry - extension; big re-fracks; etc; and, that's even before we get to tertiary production (EOR)
  • and, yes, I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken

EIA Confirms API Data -- US Crude Oil Inventories Continue To Increase -- March 7, 2018

The weekly petroleum report:
  • US crude oil inventories: increased by 2.4 million bbls; now at 425.9 million bbls
Market response: WTI drops over 1%; now trading below $62

Other data from the weekly petroleum report:
  • refineries: operating at 88% of operable capacity; still well below their potential
  • despite decreasing gasoline production, still well above the "average" range
  • other data pretty much uninteresting or unchanged 
Re-balancing: moving in the wrong direction -- back to 29 weeks -- the highest in eleven (11) weeks -- it was 30 weeks back on December 20, 2017.

Week
Date
Drawdown
Storage
Weeks to RB
Week 0
Apr 26, 2017

529.0
180
Week 24
October 12, 2017
2.8
462.2
40
Week 25
October 18, 2017
5.7
456.5
37
Week 26
October 25, 2017
-0.9
457.3
39
Week 27
November 1, 2017
2.4
454.9
38
Week 28
November 8, 2017
-2.2
457.1
42
Week 29
November 15, 2017
1.9
459.0
43
Week 30
November 22, 2017
1.9
457.1
42
Week 31
November 29, 2017
3.4
453.7
41
Week 32
December 6, 2017
5.6
448.1
37
Week 33
December 13, 2017
5.1
443.0
36
Week 34
December 20, 2017
6.5
436.5
30
Week 35
December 28, 2017
4.6
431.9
28
Week 36
January 4, 2018
7.4
424.5
25
Week 37
January 10, 2018
4.9
419.5
23
Week 38
January 18, 2018
6.9
412.7
20
Week 39
January 24, 2018
1.1
411.6
20
Week 40
January 31, 2018
-6.8
418.4
24
Week 41
February 7, 2018
-1.9
420.3
26
Week 42
February 14, 2018
-1.8
422.1
27
Week 43
February 21, 2018
1.6
420.5
27
Week 44
February 28, 2018
3.0
423.5
28
Week 45
March 7, 2018
2.4
425.9
29

Catching Up On Global Warming -- Some Headlines From Around The World -- March 7, 2018

I do not recall ever seeing this much snow in 24 - 48 hours in Williston between 1953 and 1969:

**************************
From Around The World

Little Ice Age on its way -- Romanian meteorologist -- and if you can't believe a Romanian meteorologist, whom can you trust?

Record cold winter for Australia -- "no doubt warmists will conflate this to 'an expected consequence of warming."

Heavy snow for New York, Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts, March 6, 2018 -- localized amounts up to 20 inches; snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour or greater -- the Kennedy clan is gobsmacked

Heavy snow -- and we're not talking cocaine -- shuts down California freeway.

Record snowfall in New York -- March 4, 2018.

Obama's fraudulent EPA exposed.

"The End of Snow?" -- NY Times, February 7, 2014 -- just four years ago.

Headline too long to post.

Everything -- Except The Equity Market -- Holding Steady; Great Update On NGL Production -- RBN Energy -- March 7, 2018 -- Campaigns Matter -- Hillary Said She Would Put A Lot Of Miners Out Of Work; Trump Said He Would Create Jobs

Chevron: backs 2018 production rise, eyes share buybacks.

Disclaimer: as I've said 3, 564 times on the blog -- this is not an investment site.


***************************************
Back to the Bakken

"Arctic" rigs:

$62.33→3/7/201803/07/201703/07/201603/07/201503/07/2014
Active Rigs604435114191

RBN Energy: record crude and gas production leads to record NGL production at just the right time.
In recent weeks, both crude oil and natural gas production have breached all-time records. So it should come as no surprise the same thing happened to NGLs — production blasted to over 4.0 MMb/d in the fourth quarter of 2017, and by our estimates will move considerably higher this year. This is a particularly big deal for the ethane market, which has spent the last eight years waiting patiently for a wave of new Gulf Coast ethane-only petrochemical plants — a.k.a. “steam crackers” — to come online in 2018.
Well, here we are in 2018 and new demand from the crackers is finally kicking in. The good news for petchems is that all of the incremental NGL production means the supply of ethane available to the market is growing too, right on cue. What do these developments mean for future NGL production, demand and prices? Today, we begin a new blog series discussing our updated NGL market forecasts, starting with that NGL product whose market is going through the most changes: ethane. 
Poll: and with the RBN Energy story this is as good a time as any to close out the poll in which we asked whether crude oil production should take precedence over ND's self-imposed cap on flaring?
  • Yes, forget about caps on flaring; push for maximum crude oil production: 13%
  • Ease the caps on flaring now that the market is improving but long term keep the caps as goals: 42%
  • No, hold the industry accountable: maintain the caps and minimize waivers: 45% 
FWIW, I would have wavered between the 2nd and 3rd choices, and probably would have gone with a coin flip.
************************************** 
A Political Note
Good Riddance? Ya Think?


Campaigns matter: a reader pointed out --
Go back and listen to what they said in their campaigns ... Obama said he would KILL coal; Hillary said she would put a lot of miners out of work;  Trump said he would create/protect USA jobs.