Random Update Of An Incredible SHD Oil & Gas Well In Deep Water Creek Bay -- April 27, 2017

I've posted on this well several times. Once can search the blog. This post includes the graphic. 

The well:

• 19296, 2,388, SHD Oil & Gas, Golden 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, t3/15; cum 505K 2/17

One-half million bbls of oil in about two years.

Natural gas: 346,733 MCF = another 60K of boe.

A reminder: this is an extended long lateral (three sections long, under the river).

It looks like not much has changed. The other wells on this pad are still waiting to be completed.

Monthly production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	14863	15206	17197	9984	0	9984
BAKKEN	1-2017	30	13992	13742	17928	7621	0	7621
BAKKEN	12-2016	27	11381	11567	12009	5557	0	5557
BAKKEN	11-2016	29	14469	14342	18037	8328	0	8328
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	16196	15951	19279	8704	0	8704
BAKKEN	9-2016	30	15827	15596	23118	8224	0	8224
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	16913	16435	23912	9236	0	9236
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	19195	18703	29312	10760	0	10760
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	17398	17300	28221	9269	0	9269
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	17426	17058	28779	9157	0	9157
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	17658	17680	0	9219	0	9219
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	18009	17482	28734	9273	5258	4015
BAKKEN	2-2016	28	15175	14852	26159	7977	2397	5580
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	20664	20370	30233	10665	0	10665
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	20810	20523	39346	13444	0	13444
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	22221	22166	36204	16791	0	16791
BAKKEN	10-2015	31	21570	21420	30901	16005	0	16005
BAKKEN	9-2015	29	13597	13731	27738	10789	0	10789
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	17615	17237	12474	35799	0	35799
BAKKEN	7-2015	31	18846	18416	29250	13299	0	13299
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	21452	20597	29348	14637	76	12971
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	27545	27019	40307	17610	15838	129
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	30953	29896	46226	21505	16776	3139
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	50914	48348	68728	39880	2189	36048
BAKKEN	2-2015	23	30105	29502	70346	23000	0	23000

The other three wells on this pad:

• 31109, conf, SHD, Charging Wildcat 22-31H, API: 33-055-00182, not fracked acc. to FracFocus;
• 31110, conf, SHD, War Eagle 22-31H, API: 33-055-00183, not fracked acc. to FracFocus;
• 31111, conf, SHD, Luke Neset 22-31H, API: 33-055-00184, not fracked acc. to FracFocus; 

The graphic:

Great Article Over At Rigzone On Solving The "Marcellus / Utica" Problem -- April 27, 2017

Updates

Later, 8:33 a.m. Central Time: see first comment --

As impressive as the Dragon ship story is (they use ethane to power the ship, also), there are even larger ships - almost triple the size - to transport ethane from the Gulf to India.

Reliance Industries operates the complex in India, I believe.

The amount of gas coming from the Appalachian Basin, by this time next year, will be stunning as many pipelines will be in service by then.

Original Post

 Link here. Data points:

• March 9, 2016
• 27,000 cubic meters of ethane
• loaded on the Ineos Intrepid
• new class of LNG vessel
• 4,000-mile voyage from US to Rafnes, Norway
• first time US shale gas transported to Europe
• made possibly by using new class of LNG carrier
• the Ineos Intrepid
• ship designer: Evergas
• one of eight "Dragon-class" vessels
• world's largest multigas LNG-ethan carriers
• these eight vessels will be the "seaborne pipeline" linking US and Europe
• in addition to Rafnes, the Dragon-class carriers deliver ethane cargoes to Ineos' cracker at Grangemouth, UK

Much, much more at the link.

April 27, 2017

WTI futures drop 2% overnight: now trading below $49.

Active rigs:

	4/27/2017	04/27/2016	04/27/2015	04/27/2014	04/27/2013
Active Rigs	48	27	85	182	187

RBN Energy: E&P companies doubling down on Marcellus / Utica in 2017 CAPEX plans.

Scott Adams: President Trump's first 100 days.

The Energy And The Market Page, T+96 -- April 27, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Financial news is posted to help me put the Bakken into perspective. 

Market Day

Opens:

• Nasdaq: up 13
• Dow 30: up 17
• WTI: $48.60 

UNP: Warren Buffett must be thrilled. Personally, with everything I'm reading, I never would have expected this. UNP trading near all-time highs (I believe) and UNP popped overnight -- up over 3% this morning with a dividend that will most likely be increased. I guess its 52-week high is $115, so UNP has a little way to go to beat its all-time high.

XLNX: wow, wow, wow. Beats on earnings, revenues.

Before The Market Opens

Futures. Up 28 points.

Exuberance. Oilprice.com still suggesting that OPEC could hit its target, $60 oil with extension of cuts. Right now, WTI before market opens: drops 2% overnight, now trading below $49. This has to be very worrying for Saudi Arabia and those US operators that bought Permian for $40,000/acre.

Exuberance. oil supermajors dig out of doldrums as cash poised to surge -- Bloomberg. We'll see when XOM, COP, CVX report.

What, Me Worry? US E&Ps can turn a profit on $50 to $60 oil -- Barclays. That's not the quesiton: can they make money on $30 to $40 oil?

Saudi losing share. To Iran, Iraq on oil cuts -- Bloomberg. Tea leaves suggest to me the OPEC (wink, wink, Saudi Arabia) won't extend the cuts; if the cuts are extended, won't amount to much. At $100-oil the Armaco IPO is worth $2 trillion, some say. At $50-oil, not so much.

Not quite right. Headline from last night -- "oil prices stable after big draw in US crude inventories." -- Reuters. Less than 12 hours later, WTI tumbles 2%, now below $49.

Completely missed this one: UNP trading at its 52-week high. Who wudda thought? Up almost 2% overnight. 

The Political Page, T+96 -- April 27, 2017

Global warming hits North Dakota (again): Grand Forks, ND, overnight --

Schumer economy. First time unemployment claims jump way more than expected.

• forecast: a small tick up to 245,000 from a revised reading of 243,000
• actual: an unexpected jump -- first time claims jumped 14,000 to 257,000
• four-week average: dropped 500 to 242,250
• it will be interesting to hear the analysis of this surprise surge; most likely:
• weather
• weather
• weather
• how did market react: futures steady, still showing the Dow 30 up 31 points

Go, Portland, Go: cancels 82nd Avenue annual Rose Parade over intimidation by alt-left group. At some point, I would imagine Portland retailers are getting tired of activists negatively impacting their business. 82nd Avenue is a long way from downtown Portland and I imagine downtown Portland events are even worse. I was in Portland all last week. Our daughter no longer likes to go into Portland due to concern for her personal safety. We went downtown one day to visit Powell's bookstore and do the chocolate candy store tour (her tour) but that was it. The Max (light rail) was fairly empty compared to the subways in Boston, but I can imagine many middle-aged and older riders were a bit uncomfortable with many of the riders: 9:00 a.m. and at least three in our car alone, drunk, high, or hung-over, and under the age of 25. Biggest concern is the unpredictability of some of these folks. I was surprised to see not one "transit authority" employee or policeman along the entire trip. My hunch is that less than a third of riders on the Max actually have a ticket. By the way, even Powell's was very empty. My daughter told me that the coffee shop was usually quite busy and we might not find a place to sit; in fact, it was almost empty. 

As noted, we went into downtown Portland one day. Had we been in Boston, we would have been downtown every day.

Go, Senate, Go: with just a day or so until President Trump's 100th day in office, the US senate confirmed his last cabinet nomination, the new Secretary of Labor.