Natural Gas: Emerging Supply Constraints In South Texas -- RBN Energy -- March 1, 2017

Active rigs:

	3/1/2017	03/01/2016	03/01/2015	03/01/2014	03/01/2013
Active Rigs	40	35	119	192	183

RBN Energy: emerging supply constraints and premium pricing in south Texas.

There is a premium natural gas market developing in South Texas, where exports to Mexico could rise by more than 2.0 Bcf/d over the next four years and gas liquefaction and LNG export facilities are expected to add another 1.8 Bcf/d of demand to the market in that time. While gas production from the nearby Eagle Ford Shale is showing signs of at least a partial comeback and will help meet some of this new demand, the South Texas market may be heading toward being short supply in the next few years, resulting in higher prices there relative to surrounding markets. That would make the South Texas market an attractive destination for supply as far north as the Marcellus and Utica shales. In fact, there is a slew of proposed southbound pipeline projects extending deep into Texas along the Texas Gulf Coast for shippers to get their gas there. But how much incremental supply will be needed to balance the market? Today we begin a series analyzing the gas supply and demand balance in South Texas, starting with prospects for production growth out of the Eagle Ford Shale.

Scott Adams: nothing to see here, folks.

Latest On DAPL -- February 28, 2017

Over at Francais Express:

• hearing held earlier today; this is the last lawsuit (for now)
• judge hopes to decide on/about March 7, 2017, "final" decision
• wants operator to give him 48 hours notice if oil were to flow sooner than March 7, 2017, so he could issue ruling before oil flows
• Judge Boasberg: questioned how the water could be harmed since the pipeline is being built under the Lake Oahe and oil would not likely touch the water in the event of a spill.
• Native American reply: the pipeline would spiritually degrade the water on the Missouri River because of its presence and that would prevent tribes from carrying out ceremonies because other nearby water sources had been contaminated from decades of mining. 

And exactly how would the pipeline "spiritually degrade" the water? To think this $3.9 billion
pipeline was held up over that "level" of argument.

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Soulmates and Shoalmates

I did not know this until yesterday.

Most fish are said to swim in schools. There is an exception.

Quick! Without looking it up, herring do not swim in schools. They swim in ......?

I came across that factoid while reading about the history of salt (previously posted).

I never would have posted that bit of trivia in a million years except I'm listening to the soundtrack to the Coen brothers movie, Inside Llewyn Davis. The song: "The Shoals of Herring."

From wiki:

In biology, any group of fish that stay together for social reasons are shoaling, and if the group is swimming in the same direction in a coordinated manner, they are schooling.

In common usage, the terms are sometimes used rather loosely. About one quarter of fish species shoal all their lives, and about one half shoal for part of their lives.

Fish use many traits to choose shoalmates. Generally they prefer larger shoals, shoalmates of their own species, shoalmates similar in size and appearance to themselves, healthy fish, and kin (when recognized).

Fish can be obligate or facultative shoalers. Obligate shoalers, such as tunas, herrings and anchovy, spend all of their time shoaling or schooling, and become agitated if separated from the group. Facultative shoalers, such as Atlantic cod, saiths and some carangids, shoal only some of the time, perhaps for reproductive purposes. 

And I probably would not have even noticed any of this except a reader, a long time ago, introduced me to one of my favorite DVDs: Muscle Shoals.

Fare Thee Well, "Inside Llewyn Davis, Oscar Isaac

Fox Business News Slamming CNBC -- February 28, 2017

I knew it was startling, but not this startling! I saw the headline earlier and linked the article, but it is quite amazing:

FBN averaged 218,000 viewers during the hours between 9:30 a.m. and 5 p.m. in February, an increase of 59 percent over February 2016. CNBC, meanwhile, dropped from 212,000 to 182,000 in the same measurement, Nielsen Media Research said.

That's a startling change for a marketplace where CNBC was once considered the unquestioned leader. But CNBC has suggested those raw numbers are deceptive: the network stopped using Nielsen as a basis for advertising sales two years ago because the service did not measure viewership in offices or anyplace out of the home, and also short-changed its count of wealthier viewers that CNBC targets. Nielsen says it will begin counting out-of-home viewership starting in April.

Fox Business Network traces its surge to a decision in 2015 to load its daytime lineup with more of its most prominent hosts: Maria Bartiromo, Stuart Varney, Neil Cavuto, Trish Regan and Liz Claman — all CNBC alumni. The network also takes a broader view of business news than its competitors; during Regan's show on Tuesday, most of the talk was political, discussing President Donald Trump's upcoming speech before Congress.

The network also takes a broader view of business news than its competitors" -- also less fake news on Fox Business News.

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Futures Look Good Going Into Tomorrow

All indices are up right now, after the presidential address to Congress. 

Whiting With Two More Bakken Permits -- February 28, 2017

Active rigs:

	2/28/2017	02/28/2016	02/28/2015	02/28/2014	02/28/2013
Active Rigs	40	38	119	192	183

Two new permits:

• Operator: Whiting
• Field: East Fork (Williams)
• Comments: the last consecutive sixteen permits have all been Whiting permits; all permits from February 21st through today have been Whiting permits; of the 125 permits issued by NDIC to date, this calendar year, fifty (50) have been Whiting permits

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 28991, 2,120, CLR, Radermecher 2-22H1, Camel Butte, t2/17; cum --
• 28998, 1,880, CLR, Radermecher 4-22H2, Camel Butte, t2/17; cum --
• 31639, 2,640, BR, Old Hickory 43-32 MBH-R, Sand Creek, 4 sections, t2/17; cum -- 

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All Of The Above

Meanwhile, Stark County has approved a very, very contentious wind farm. Bismarck Tribune:

• Brady Wind Energy Center I
• northern Stark County near Dickinson
• $250 million project; 150 MW ($1.7 million / MW; I don't know if that includes the transmission line)
• NextEra Energy Resources
• PSC voted unanimously to approve it
• includes a 19-mile transmission line
• longest wind farm hearing in state history; 15 hours of testimony, March 31, 2016
• sounds like most area residents were against it except for the landowners that gain financially; I could be wrong; that was my impression

Random Update Of A Hess Re-Frack: HA-Mogen, Hawkeye Oil Field -- February 28, 2017

The well, API 33-053-02811:

• 16694, 348, Hess, HA-Mogen-152-95 0805H-1 ST2, Hawkeye, t12/07; cum 310K 12/16;

Production profile around time of re-frack (no production from 2/12 to 10/14):

BAKKEN	4-2015	30	7066	7087	79	12819	12819	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	25	7407	7556	145	22875	22875	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	10109	10103	163	32622	32622	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	25	12336	12352	138	28758	28758	0
BAKKEN	12-2014	31	13636	13753	779	29851	29851	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	30	21124	21525	126	34258	34258	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	17	21393	20472	115	11092	11092	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0

Original frack production data:

BAKKEN	2-2008	29	4852	4852	1453	8746	8746	0
BAKKEN	1-2008	31	7220	7220	1575	10270	10270	0
BAKKEN	12-2007	31	7779	7779	1404	12254	12254	0
BAKKEN	11-2007	29	10670	10670	1443	15322	15322	0