Monday, February 27, 2017

The Bakken Is Not Dead -- Mike Filloon At SeekingAlpha -- February 27, 2017

Link here. 

Summary:
  • On a per-well basis, Bakken wells continue to see improved production from 2014 through 2016
  • The Bakken play has seen production decreases due to low oil prices, but when the number of completions are considered, production has held up quite well
  • The Bakken does have headwinds when compared to other U.S. plays, but differential improvements are expected once the DAPL is completed
Will be archived.

From the post:
In 2015, the number decreased to 1541. It does show an improvement in production per well. Operators started to target gassier geology, as they found it drove more resource up and out of the well bore. More importantly, well design continues to adapt. These wells produced 13K more barrels of oil and 38K Mcf of natural gas.

In 2016, wells improved by another 8K BO and 22K Mcf.

The improved production continues. Some believe well results are declining because all the best areas (they believe) are drilled out. This doesn't seem to be the case as improvements to design continue to outperform as well costs decrease.
Nothing about re-entry, re-fracks. 

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Trilobite! Eyewitness to Evolution
Richard Fortey
c. 2000
DDS: 565.39 FOR

The author is a senior paleontologist at the Natural History Museum in London. He is the author of several natural history books, some of which have won major prizes or been on short lists for major awards.

This is a fun book to read. He uses the subject of trilobites to discuss many other topics. It's a great book for summer reading. 

Self-Ordering Kiosks -- The Next Big Story -- So Yesterday (2013, To Be Exact) -- February 27, 2017

This  is really quite remarkable. One of the top business stories that broke yesterday and continues to have legs today is the story that Wendy's will install self-ordering kiosks at 1,000 locations. Over at the sidebar on the right, I have something called "the next big thing." At that link, you have to look for it, you have to scroll down quite a bit to get to this:
June 15, 2013: kiosk ordering in fast-food restaurants, perhaps in sit-down fancy restaurants; employers don't have to buy health care insurance for iPads.
The link, by the way, takes you to a WSJ op-ed by Trump's first pick for labor secretary, Big Bob's Andy Pudzer. Amazing. Just one more reason why I love to blog. 

I don't know about you, but when I go to McDonald's I order the same thing, every time (occasional exceptions). I can imagine the day when I walk up to a kiosk; the face-recognition technology recognizes me, and automatically brings up my usual order and asks if I want any changes. It may even throw in a few "offers" for a better deal.

By the way, I spoke with a software engineer over the weekend: it turns out facial recognition is going to get better and better with a) artificial intelligence; and, b) quantum computing (which by the way, is a component of AI). 

The Political Page, T+38 -- February 27, 2017

Updates

Later, 1:55 p.m. Central Time: Matt has his fingers on the pulse of the American electorate. His page has not been refreshed since this morning. Americans are still pre-occupied with the debacle over the Oscars last night. Meanwhile, Trump has had his televised reality show, and the Dow is on to its 12th consecutive record-setting day.
Original Post

Last night's Oscars: so "yesterday." It is quite amazing how fast things are moving. Over at The Drudge Report it's still all about the flub at the Oscars and the incredibly shrinking ratings. But in the real world, it's all back to Trump. He is hosting the nation's governors and the market goes from -40 to almost flat. Will it go green? Whatever. I digress. It is amazing how fast Trump can change the conversation. Whenever Obama came on, folks changed the channel. Now folks are looking for Trump twitters and/or speeches.

This is truly bizarre:


While typing this, I was listening/watching to Trump's speech to the governors. This guy never quits working. His reality show is every morning. While watching -- over the course of the last 10 minutes or so -- the market went a -40 points to up over 10 points now. Really, really quite remarkable.

Trump: in the last two administrations, the US has spent $6 trillion fighting "wars" in the Mideast.

Stu Varney notes that the Sunday New York Times business section had not one story on the Trump rally:
  • not mentioned: $3 trillion increase in American company market value
  • not mentioned: 11 consecutive days of recording Dow
  • top story: deforestation in the Amazon (you have got to be kidding)
Wendy's kiosks: previously reported -- this is the "sleeper" story of the decade. Think about this: in a few years we have gone from not even hearing about the technology to driverless cars on the road. But relatively nothing about kiosks at fast food restaurants. Compared to driverless cars, how difficult can self-ordering kiosks be? Everybody is looking at the $15 minimum wage as driving this. Wendy's said kiosks will pay for themselves in less then two years -- that's that challenge. Hiring workers / turnover of workers is pretty "steady-eddy" -- no real change from quarter to quarter so investors are not surprised. But putting kiosks in has a huge up-front cost that can spook investors. But what if companies are allowed to write-off that entire investment in the year in which they are bought, rather than depreciating over years or decades. That could be driving Wendy's decision.
In addition, self-ordering kiosks has increased opportunities for data mining. Folks may enter additional information; perhaps take a short survey while / after ordering. Perhaps loyalty rewards. Perhaps Wendys could go cashless. Or CBE (cash by exception). Apple stores are 99% cashless, I assume. One can pay with cash, but there are no visible cash registers.
Issa is an idiot: he calls for a "special prosecutor" to investigate "ties" between Russia and the Trump campaign team. The "special prosecutor" law "expired" in 1999. Issa: an idiot, or clever like a fox.

The Energy And Market Page, T+38 -- February 27, 2017

The Bakken:  not dead yet -- Mike Filloon over at SeekingAlpha.  Will follow at stand-alone post.

Staggering:


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The Market

That's a wrap: twelfth (12th) consecutive day of record-setting closes; breaks 30-year record. I believe one more day and it's an all-time record.

Trump speech to the governors: during the speech the market went from a -40 to a positive 10 points. Now about 5 points into the green. 

Opening: after eleven consecutive days of record-setting Dow, the market crashes at the opening -- down 12 points. -- Alt-left headline.

WTI: up 43 cents, and now at $54.43. The tea leaves suggest we could see pretty significant move on oil.

Stone Energy incurs wider-than-expected losses in 4Q16.

EOG Will Report After Market Closes Today -- February 27, 2017

Active rigs:



2/27/201702/27/201602/27/201502/27/201402/27/2013
Active Rigs4038119194181

RBN Energy: four things driving 2017's "different kind of recovery."

Scott Adams: the climate science debate illusion.

EOG; reports after the market closes today.